Runcorn and Helsby By-Election: Reform victory 77% chance says Betfair Exchange on eve of vote

• Reform oods-on favourites to win Runcorn and Helsby by-election

• Fledgling party now second favourites to win next general election

• Expert says Reform win would make PM Farage more likely

Betfair Exchange punters backed Reform UK on the eve of the Runcorn and Helsby by-election as Labour battled to hold on to the seat they won comfortably just nine months ago. 

In what would be a big blow to Labour and their leader Keir Starmer's goverment, a victory for Reform UK in the Cheshire constituency is a 79% chance, according to the latest Exchange odds. 

The Betfair Exchange market indicates that the contest is a two-horse race between Reform 1.3130/100 (77%) and Labour 4.03/1 (25%).

With the fledgling party looking like they are closing on what would be a famous win, the Betfair Exchange launched vote percentage markets for Reform and Labour.

By-election betting makes Reform odds-on favourites

The by-election is taking place because Mike Amesbury, who won Runcorn and Helsby for Labour at last year's general election with a majority of around 15,000 votes, resigned after he received a suspeneded prison sentence for punching a constituent.  

Now Reform look poised to overturn Labour's majority and achieve a victory that could help to convince more bettors that the party can make a signficant impact at the next general election.

That is not expected to happen until 2029 but bettors are already getting involved in the market with more than a quarter-of-a-million pounds traded. 

Reform overtake Tories in next general election betting

As it stands, Labour are 2.829/5 favourites to win the most seats with but the big news is that Reform 2.962/1 have overtaken the Conservatives 3.55/2 and Nigel Farage's party are the second favourites to win the most seats next time the UK goes to the polls in Westminster elections.

Farage is the 4.47/2 favourite to be the UK's next prime minister - a shorter price than Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch 7.87/1. 

In his in-depth by-election preview this week, Paul Krishnamurty wrote: "If Reform do win as the current odds imply, people should start taking the idea of Nigel Farage as prime minister very seriously. Both Labour and Conservatives are entitled to panic. "

With less than 24 hours to go before the people of Runcorn and Helsby cast their votes, the betting indicates that a Reform victory is likely. 

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