Runcorn and Helsby By-Election: Labour slight value to beat Reform in what looks a toss-up

• Reform odds-on for statement win in Runcorn and Helsby

• Tactical voting and turnout key as Labour battle to hold on

• Read Paul's in-depth preview of this parliament's first by-election

The first by-election of this Parliament is on Thursday and, from either a betting or political perspective, it is an absolute cracker. 

Many such contests are one-sided, and only a select few have the potential to really move the dial on a national level. Runcorn and Helsby is both very close, and carries profound significance moving forward. 

That in itself tells a story about Labour, and the deep problems Keir Starmer's government finds itself in already. Runcorn and Helsby should not be close. They won this new seat by just shy of 15,000 votes only last July. For Reform to win it requires a 17.4% swing.

That is plausible based on some of the anti-Tory swings we saw in the last Parliament but still huge by historical standards. Even set against terrible national polls for Labour, Electoral Calculus forecast they would win it by 8.6%.

Reform set for great results in Thursday's UK elections

Thursday's round of elections are sure to include many great results for Reform, such as the mayoral contests most notably in Lincolnshire and East Yorkshire & Hull. But this seat isn't one where the demographics would especially suit the far-right (in contrast to the seats where they were competitive last July).

Using the tried and trusted demographic indicators at Electoral Calculus, this tribe is defined as 'Centrist'. Indeed, it ranks bang in the centre for 'National', 'Leave' and 'Social Conservative', whilst clearly to the Left of median on economics. 

Therefore, if Reform do win as the current odds of (1.4) imply, people should start taking the idea of Nigel Farage as prime minister very seriously. Both Labour and Conservatives are entitled to panic. 

Should Reform be odds-on to win by-election?

Whether short odds-on are justified, however, is another matter. Reform were 1.4640/85 just before this article was published on Monday afternoon (28 April).

Nationally, polls are less conclusive than any time in living memory. The two most recent saw Reform and Labour tied, while even the best survey for Reform (FindOutNow) showed just 15% separating them on 28% and fifth-placed Greens on 13%. Historically, 28% implied landslide defeat. Yet Labour won their second best ever result on 34.8%. 

The two polls taken in this seat showed Reform ahead by one and three per cent. However they were taken six weeks ago, before campaigning began in earnest. Presumably, before many tactical considerations. 

Anyone trying to predict the immediate or longer term future of UK politics needs to understand tactical voting. This is how Labour and the Lib Dems won 74% of the seats with a combined vote share of 47%. If the right wing are to fight back, Tory and Reform voters need to do similar. 

Whether they will, however, is far from clear. There was a point in the general election campaign where the Tories were in such trouble (around Rishi Sunak's D-Day debacle), where it seemed Reform would move ahead and squeeze them further. As it turned out, the Tories had already hit their floor and they actually picked up a little at the end. 

There is also the Marmite nature of Nigel Farage. A substantial chunk of Tory voters disapprove of him. To the Remain/Rejoin/Brexit was a mistake crowd - nowadays a clear majority nationwide - he remains toxic. 

Looking at social media during this election season, two clear, opposing narratives stand out. On the one, the same anti-Labour, anti-immigration strand which led to race riots last summer. Grainy, unverifiable footage, reminiscent of ex-USSR smear campaigns, of Starmer allegedly kissing his gay lover, Lord Ali. The pro-Trump, pro-Tommy Robinson disinformation network has hit top gear. Underestimate this social phenomenon, micro-targeted effectively at the lesser educated and disengaged, at your peril. 

On the other, a concerted effort to stop Farage. Dire warnings and exposes of his record, positions on NHS privatisation, the state pension, pro-Russia tendencies and close affiliation to Trump - who is more toxic outside the US than ever since the tariffs.  

The unions are directly involved in this campaign, as are the same groups who championed tactical voting last year. Those polls showed 14% of Lib Dems and Greens, who may be ripe for Labour to squeeze. And these are generally higher turnout groups. 

Note how the far-Right AfD hit a low ceiling, despite much hype, disinformation and social media saturation, at the German elections. And how the polls in Canada have transformed since Trump's very public war on America's traditional allies. When Trump won in 2016, the next phase of global politics saw a liberal backlash. 

Turnout will be key in Runcorn and Helsby by-election

There is also the perennial turnout question to consider, which is never more pertinent than a by-election. Is one side more motivated than the other? Usually, this would count against a sitting government. When Labour were last in office, they consistently failed to get their vote out.

It can't help that Starmer appears hell-bent on alienating his core vote, with policies such as welfare cuts which are anathema to many a Labour supporter. 

But the other side of that equation is that Reform voters tend to be unreliable voters. Also, whatever Labour's obvious weaknesses, they have a lot of votes 'in hand', and their union led organisation has proved effective in low turnout elections. 

Ben Walker of Britain Predicts covers both the turnout and tactical questions in this excellent preview. He talks of potential Con-Lab tactical switchers which I would really need to see to believe, but the current dynamics everywhere are unprecedented.   

The Britain Predicts model forecasts Labour winning 36-35, and turnout ranging between 55-68%. That leaves plenty of room for tactical squeezing. The headline number surely makes 1.5 about Reform to short. I am highly sceptical of the latter turnout numbers, at a time when the general consensus in UK politics is 'everything is broken'. During the last Parliament, turnout in even the close, well-publicised by elections came in below 40%. 

More broadly, I expect a terrible night for Labour. They might win the North Tyneside Mayoral Election. In the West of England Mayoral Election, I very much prefer the Greens.  

Back Labour to sneak by-election win at 2/1

Here, though, in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election, I think they are slightly value at 3.02/1. The race is genuinely too close to call with confidence, but I predict they will sneak it. 

A close escape here might save Starmer from the most ignominious headlines. In July 2021, his leadership and credibility was saved by a razor-thin defence of Batley and Spen. After that, Labour never looked back, right through to the general election.

Maybe, just maybe, we are at the low point for this Labour government. When they are still hamstrung by a grim inheritance, and when it is too early to demonstrate any achievements. Alternatively, this could be the week when Britain decisively set out on the same path to Trump's USA.

Now read Canadian Election: Mark Carney's Liberals 1/5 favourites to win after Trump annexation threat