Runcorn and Helsby By-Election: Reform 4/11 to win Cheshire seat from Labour

• Reform favourites to win Runcorn and Helsby by-election on 1 May

• Loss of disgraced MP's seat would be a blow to Labour

• By-election viewed as indicator of government's popularity

Reform UK will win the Runcorn and Helsby by-election on 1 May in a blow to Labour and their leaderKeir Starmer's goverment, according to the Betfair Exchange odds 16 days out from the vote. 

The Betfair Exchange market indicates that the contest is a two-horse race between Labour and Reform.

It makes a Reform victory 1.374/11 (a 73/% chance) with Labour 3.55, who won the seat with a majority of around 15,000 last July, second in the betting. 

The by-election is taking place because Mike Amesbury, who won Runcorn and Helsby for Labour last year, resigned after he received a suspeneded prison sentence for punching a constituent.  

Runcorn and Helsby by-election is litmus test for Reform

Reform were a distant second in Runcorn and Helsby at the general election just 10 months ago.

Now they look poised to overturn Labour's majority and achieve a victory that could help to convince more bettors that the party can make a signficant impact at the next general election.

That is not expected to happen until 2029 but bettors are already getting involved in the market with nearly a quarter-of-a-million pounds traded. 

As it stands, Labour are 2.727/4 favourites to win the most seats with the Conservatives 3.211/5 and Reform 3.3512/5. 

That Reform only have four MPs (they won five at the 2024 election before Rupert Lowe left the party) so they still have a long way to go before they can claim to be contenders for power in Westminster. But a victory in Runcorn next month would strengthen their position and rattle both main parties.

Will Runcorn switch from Labour to Reform at by-election?

Reports say that some voters in Runcorn and Helsby feel sympathetic towards Amesbury and dislike Labour's treatment of their former-MP. 

Others show that voters there are disappointed in what they have seen from Labour since Keir Starmer took office 10 months ago.

Labour won a landslide victory, reducing the Conservatives to 121 seats, and Starmer entered number 10 Downing Street with an enormous majority. Plenty of voters still insist they don't understand what the prime minister stands for, however, while others are unhappy with the direction of the government so far. 

Reform leader Nigel Farage is the 4.57/2 favourite to be the UK's next prime minister - a shorter price than Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch 7.413/2 - and he will be making several trips to Runcorn between now and 1 May to rally support for his party. 

Sarah Pochin is the party's candidate but Farage may be as ubiquitous as her in the constituency between now and polling day.

Whether Badenoch and Starmer making the trip north would help their respective candidates is debatable. Local councillor Karen Shore is standing for Labour and has said that she believes some constituents who have traditionally voted Conservative will vote for her in a bid to keep out Reform. 

But, with just over two weeks to go, the Betfair Exchange odds show that this by-election is Reform's to lose. 

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