Next General Election: Labour and Reform battle for favouritism with hung parliament odds-on

• Favouritism has swung between two parties in recent days

• Labour currently have marginal lead over Reform

• But Farage favourite to succeed Starmer as UK PM

• Hung parliament is odds-on for next UK general election

Labour and Reform UK are locked in a battle for favouritism in the next general election betting on the Betfair Exchange after Nigel Farage made a major speech this week which was labelled "fantasy economics" by the prime minister Keir Starmer.

Labour are currently 2.427/5 to win the most seats the next time Britons go to the polls in a Westminster election while Reform are 2.486/4.

The Conservatives have drifted to 6.05/1 - a staggering state for the UK's most successful party and one which will imperil Kemi Badenoch's leadership if their fortunes don't change soon, as odds of 2.47/5 on her being replaced next year indicate.

Favouritism in the most seats market has swung between Labour and Reform this week on the Exchange which has correctly predicted the outcome of 23 of the last 25 major elections.

Farage favourite to be next PM

Reform currently have only five MPs but their momentum in the polls, combined with their by-election victory earlier this month (pictured below), means Labour see them as a genuine threat. 

Farage is 3.613/5 to be the next prime minister and Labour need to get serious about keeping him out of number 10.

Starmer was paying attention when Farage made a big speech this week, in which he talked about making Britain's public spending more efficient - with policies explicitly imported from Donald Trump's new US administration - and adpoted some popular Labour policies, such as scrapping the two child benefit cap.

Starmer responded by accusing the Reform leader of making unfunded tax cut pledges. Today, he will make a speech in which he compares Farage to Liz Truss who, the Labour leader has said repeatedly, crashed the UK economy. 

Labour's robust response appears to have persuaded some bettors that Starmer and co. can see off Farage at the next election. Earlier this week, Reform were ahead of Labour in the next election betting but Labour have since edge ahead and regained favouritism.

What is a hung parliament?

The difference between the odds in the most seats market would make the next UK general election too close to call.

To win an overall majority, a party needs to win a minimum of 326 seats in parliament. In the Over All Majority betting on the Betfair Exchange, however, No Over All majority is 1.910/11 is the current favourite outcome at the next election.

Again, that is a surprising scenario, less than a year after an election which saw Labour win a landslide that currently gives them a majority of 165 seats.

If the market is correct then we could see a hung parliament at the next election. That would create a situation where the party with the most seats could enter a coalition with another party or form a minority government .

The Conservatives did the former under David Cameron after the 2010 election and the latter under Theresa May's leadership following the 2017 election.

Alternatively, we could see a scenario where the party with the most seats was locked out of power by a coalition of smaller parties which between them formed a working majority.

Perhaps we are getting ahead of ourselves. The next general election is not scheduled to take place until 2029 and, as the moves in the Betfair markets over the past 11 months demonstrate, a lot can happen in the meantime.

Now read more politics betting news and get the latest election odds