Next General Election: Reform and Labour almost level after Runcorn by-election

• Reform win Runcorn by-election by six votes

• Labour lose seat they won by 15,000 last year

• Bettors back Reform to win next general election

Betfair Exchange punters backed Reform UK into near parity with Labour to win the next general election after Nigel Farage's party triumphed in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election.

Reform are 2.829/5 and Labour 2.767/4 in the market on which party will win the most seats the next time Britons go to the polls in Westminster elections. 

Nigel Farage is 4.03/1 on the Betfair Exchange to become the UK's next prime minister. 

Reform win by-election with big swing from Labour

Sarah Pochin became Reform's fifth MP, winning by just six votes.

It was one of the closest results in living memory, and votes needed to be recounted, but the contrast with the outcome at 2024 general election rings alarm bells for Labour. 

Reform achieved a 17.4% swing from Labour and that gives Keir Starmer and his government serious cause for concern. 

Labour won Runcorn and Helsby by nearly 15,000 votes at last year's general election but, 10 months on, constituents there have delivered a damning verdict on the party. 

As well as winning its first ever parliamentary by-election, Reform also took its first mayoralty in Greater Lincolnshire.

They good news for Labour was that it held on in three other mayoral races.

Farage 3/1 to be next PM after Reform win by-election

Labour threw everything at the Runcorn and Helsby by-election because they knew that defeat there would be an indictment of Starmer's government. 

For Reform, meanwhile, it was an opportunity that they could convert positive polling into winning seats. Labour will worry now that they could lose more seats in similar circumstances. 

In his in-depth by-election preview this week, Paul Krishnamurty wrote: "If Reform do win as the current odds imply, people should start taking the idea of Nigel Farage as prime minister very seriously. Both Labour and Conservatives are entitled to panic. "

Today, Labour will fear that they could lose power after just one term at the next election, while the Tories' concern will be that they may face an electoral wipeout even greater than the one they suffered last year.

It remains to be seen whether Starmer's government will change course in a bid to shore up support in places with similar demographics to Runcorn and Helsby.

Farage, meanwhile, is riding high again, continuing his bid to shake up Westminster politics and, after a difficult few months of internal battles, showing his own party that he is still the person best-placed to help them win seats.

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