Next UK General Election: Reform even money favourites after Rayner resigns in blow to Starmer

• Reform evens on Betfair Exchange to win next election

• Rayner resignation as Labour election odds drift 

• Farage favourite to be next prime minister

Reform UK were edging towards their shortest price in the Betfair Exchange next general election winner market after the Labour goverment was left reeling by deputy prime minister Angela Rayner's resignation. 

Days of pressure on Rayner culminated in her stepping down after the prime minister's ethics adviser found she had breached the ministerial code over underpayment of stamp duty on her £800,000 seaside flat.

It was a blow to Keir Starmer, who initially backed his deputy, and Reform UK look likely to be the beneficiaries. 

They are 2.01/1 in a fast-moving market on the Betfair Exchange to win the most seats at the next general election.

Labour are 2.962/1 to win the most seats - a surprising state of affairs just 15 months after they won an election landslide which illustrates the current volatility of UK politics. 

Their leader Nigel Farage is 3.929/10 favourite to be the next prime minister. 

Reform favourites to win most seats in hung parliament

Reform have enjoyed a brilliant summer in the polls and now lead Labour by as much as 10 points in some that were released this week. 

Farage's profile has soared, with increasing media coverage, and he will appear today at his party's conference in Birmingham. Earlier this week, he made a speech in the US where he is popular with members of Donald Trump's administration. 

Reform only have five MPs but the Betfair markets, like the polls, indicate that they are on a roll and are serious contenders for power at the next general election which is scheduled for 2029. 

As for The Tories, they are 8.07/1 to win the next election and have been eclipsed on the right by Reform - if not in parliament yet then at least in the nation's political discourse.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch is 15.529/2 to be the next prime minister and, less than a year since taking the role, is drifting into irrelevance. She is [2.02] to be replaced in 2026 so it would be a surprise if she were to lead them into the next election. 

One note of scepticism about the possibilty of a Farage premiership, however, can be found in the Betfair Exchange market on the chances of a party winning an overall majority at the next election. 

Reform are shortest price at 2.9215/8 - and Starmer should be alarmed by Labour's 7.06/1 - but the shortest price is on no overall majority 1.981/1. 

That would leave us with a hung parliament in which parties with a significant number of seats would need to make deals with smaller parties, either in a formal coalition or on a supply and demand basis. It could, in short, get complicated.

The markets and the polls show that all the momentum is with Reform UK and today's resignation by Rayner is a blow to struggling Labour government. 

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