UK Local Elections 2026: Results show big gains for Reform and damaging Labour losses

Reform the winner and Labour the losers as results come in

Friday 8 May 11:30 - Local elections results update

Reform leader Nigel Farage hailed a  "historic shift" in UK politics as his party made significant gains across the country in the local elections.

The prime minister Keir Starmer insisted he would not walk away after Labour lost control of councils and suffered significant defeats in former-heart-lands.

Attention now turns to what the results could mean for the next general election, a potential challenge to Starmer and more, so get the latest Betfair Exchange odds on all of these things and more here.

Reform favourites to win most seats and Greens predicted to come second

Thursday 7 May 15:00 - Local elections update

You can no longer back Reform UK to win the most seats in today's local elections, so convinced are Betfair Exchange punters that Nigel Farage's party will make enormous council gains.

Local elections are taking place across the UK and the results will be interpreted as a damning verdict on Keir Starmer's premiership if Labour perform as badly as the Betfiar markets predict.

He's 2.3211/8 to be replaced as Labour leader in the July to September period.

In the meantime, the battle to come second to Reform is where plenty of interest lies for Exchange punters on polling day.

The Green Party are expecting to do well and could cause Labour a headache from the left of the UK's political spectrum.

Zack Polanski's party are 2.166/5 favourites to win the second most seats.

The Liberal Democrats come next in the market at 3.259/4 while Labour, who have been attacking the Greens all week in the media and in their leafletting, are 3.55/2.

The Conservatives, who would traditionally see the first local elections under a Labour government as an opportunity to rebuild, remain in the wilderness at 9.28/1 to come second.

Check out the range of Betfair Exchange markets on today's elections including the battle to win control of councils, mayoralties and more.

Tuesday 5 May 14:30 - Local elections update

Local elections take place in the UK on Thursday and, with the Betfair Exchange markets predicting that Reform and the Green Party will perform well, Labour leader Keir Starmer may come under pressure from his party.

What happens locally this week could have enormous implications for the national picture at the next general eleciton.

Have the markets got it right? We'll find out in a few days but the Exchange has an excellent record when it comes to calling elections. It predicted Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election in 2024 and Labour's landslide the same year.

Which party will win Thursday's local elections?

Reform UK are 1.021/50 on the Exchange to win the most seats in Thursday's UK local elections. That means they have a 98% chance of coming out on top.

Nigel Farage's party have been polling well and, although they failed to win parliamentary by-elections in Gorton and Caerphilly in the past six months, Reform look set to do well at the council level.

The Green Party have also been emerging as a threat to the Labour and Tory duopoly in UK politics over the past year. Under Zack Polanski's leadership, they are aiming to take votes from Labour.

The Greens are 1.8810/11 to finish second on Thursday and 1.584/7 to do better than Labour.

Labour facing local elections disaster

The outlook is dire for Labour and, while it is not unusual for the party of national government to take a beating at local elections, the predictions are a damning verdict on Keir Starmer's leadership of the country.

It is less than two years since Labour returned to power in Westminster and yet voters appear to be ready to take out their anger at the biggest UK elections since the general election of 2024.

The one positive for Labour may be that, at 100.0099/1, they are at least a marginally shorter price to win than the Conservatives 110.00109/1 who continue to be reviled by the electorate, according to the market.

Will local election losses mean end of Starmer?

Betfair Exchange punters have backed Keir Starmer to leave as Labour leader this summer. He is 2.427/5 to leave in July to September - the favourite - of 2026.

Starmer hasn't enjoyed much luck as prime minister in 2026 but he has committed a number of unforced errors that have added to his difficulties.

His decision to appoint Peter Mandelson as the UK's ambassador to Washington backfired spectacularly and Starmer has struggled to control the fall out, prompting questions about the prime minister's judgement and integrity.

Burnham favourite to be next prime minister

If Thursday's results are as bad for Labour as the Exchange markets predict, Starmer could face a leadership challenge.

Andy Burnham still needs to find a way back to Westminster - he is Mayor of Manchester and not an MP, so it is not straightforward - but he is the favourite to be the UK's next prime minister.

Reports at the weekend said Burnham had consulted with MPs in north west constituences who would be prepared to step down and make way for Burnham to stand in a by-election.

Burnham wanted to be Labour's candidate in the Gorton by-election earlier this year but was blocked by Labour's NEC. Labour went on to lose the by-election to the Green Party.

Burnham is 4.03/1 and former-deputy PM Angela Rayner 4.57/2 is not far behind.

Even if he does stagger on beyond the summer, Starmer is as long as 6.86/1 to lead Labour into the next general election.

Bookmark our politics blog for more UK and US news