General Election Party Focus: Liberal Democrats

UK Politics / Paul Krishnamurty / 29 January 2010 / Leave a comment

Could Clegg be looking at a big year for the Lib Dems

There are a few reasons for LIb Dems to be cheerful about their 2010 general election chances, as Paul Krishnamurty explains

"One reason for optimism is that previous election campaigns have tended to see the Lib Dem vote rise in the final few weeks of the campaign, as the party benefits from greater media coverage than usual. That trend could be more relevant than ever this time, with Clegg granted equal status to Brown and Cameron in the forthcoming televised debates."

Their two bigger rivals like to portray a Lib Dem vote as a wasted one, yet in reality the third party has a pivotal role to play in this election. For the Conservatives to win a majority, they'll need to take several of the 30-odd key marginals currently held by the Lib Dems, whilst defending several of their own seats from the reverse trend. Those marginals represent some of the tightest heats in the constituency betting.

Moreover, the Lib Dems have increasingly become a home for disillusioned Labour voters, emerging as their main opponents in numerous cities. In many areas, Tory and Lib Dem activists will be telling constituents that only a vote for their party can defeat Labour. If neither wins that battle decisively, Labour could benefit from a split opposition.

As always, the biggest task facing the Lib Dems will be finding a distinctive message that differs from their opponents. The totemic issue of Iraq helped them climb to 22% and 62 seats in 2005, and Nick Clegg must hope that 'fair taxation' will work the oracle this time.

One reason for optimism is that previous election campaigns have tended to see their vote rise in the final few weeks of the campaign, as the party benefits from greater media coverage than usual. That trend could be more relevant than ever this time, with Nick Clegg granted equal status to Brown and Cameron in the forthcoming televised debates.

Tags: Conservatives, General Election, Labour, Liberal Democrats