UK Politics

Boris Johnson Exit Date: PM odds-on to leave this year as Pincher row explodes

  • Max Liu
  • 3:00 min read
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson
Boris Johnson is odds-on to leave in 2022

"The prime minister's future has been a constant source of speculation for months and he is now 1.9520/21 to go before the end of 2022."

Bettors backed the prime minister to leave office this year as latest crisis engulfed Number 10 but Labour leader may have problems too...

Boris Johnson was backed in to odds-on to leave office this year as the row over Chris Pincher mired the government in a new crisis.

The prime minister's future has been a constant source of speculation for months and he is now 1.84/5 to go before the end of 2022.

The latest crisis, which concerns Chris Pincher, the Tamworth MP, who was accused last week of groping individuals at an event in central London, is said to have darkended the mood again in the Conservative party.

Johnson is 1.68/13 to still be Tory leader by the party conference in September but he is 4.3100/30 to lead them into the next general election which is scheduled for May 2024.

Pincher resigned as the Tories' deputy chief whip on Friday evening, admitting that he "drank far too much" and "embarrassed myself and other people" at the event in question.

Johnson is under fire for claiming that, when he appointed Pincher to the role, he did not know Pincher had been investigated over similar allegations in 2019.

On Tuesday, the former Foreign Office permanent secretary Simon McDonald published a letter suggesting number 10 had misled the public about what Johnson knew about past claims against Pincher.

It's a complicated and murky affair which has reignited the debate about Johnson's suitability to lead the country and his party. Last month, he survived a confidence vote but 148 of his MPs voted against him.

A fortnight ago the Tories lost two seats in by-election drubbings. They are out to 4.03/1 to win a majority at the next general election but they are still marginal favourites to win the most seats.

Penny Mordaunt 7.06/1 is the current favourite to succeed Johnson as Conservative leader. She's followed in the betting by Liz Truss 8.615/2 and Jeremy Hunt 9.617/2.

Starmer to learn Beergate fate

Keir Starmer should soon know whether he will have to resign as Labour leader over the so-called Beergate allegations.

Starmer and Rayner look uncomfortable.jpg

Starmer and deput Labour leader Angela Rayner are awaiting the verdict of Durham Police, regarding whether they broke Covid rules and will be fined. Both have said they will resign if fined.

Over the weekend, 2022 collapsed to 2.56/4 in the market on which year Starmer is replaced as Labour Leader, following a Daily Mail story which claimed there was a witness who was prepared to testify against Starmer in court.

The price on Starmer leaving this year has since drifted back to 3.02/1 with 2024 or later the favourite at 1.528/15 but Durham police are said to have met today to discuss the matter, so we should know soon whether or not Starmer and Rayner will be fined.

Andy Burnham 6.86/1 the current favourite to be next Labour leader, although it would be difficult to envisage how the Mayor of Greater Manchester could take over if Starmer's reign came to an abrupt end.

Lisa Nandy 7.413/2, Wes Streeting 7.613/2 and Rachel Reeves 7.613/2 are the other leading candidates in the market.

Keep up with the latest UK politics betting news via our live blog.


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