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Brexit Live Blog: All the latest Exchange market moves with May under pressure

Joe Dyer
15 November 2018

Has the end come for Theresa May's tenure as PM?

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Theresa May's time as Prime Minister looks like coming to an end this year as her party revolts against the proposed Brexit deal with the EU. The B.B team bring you all the latest from the Exchange markets...

"Out at 25.024/1 last week, May is currently 1.654/6 to exit 10 Downing Street before 2019 begins."

17:30 'Nothing has changed'

Not the most exciting development of the day as Theresa May uses a press conference to insist she fights on. "Leadership is about taking the right decisions not the easy one."

And soundbites, she didn't add...

16:20 - PM to hold press conference at 17:00

Will May respond to Rees Mogg's letter? Confirm her plans for Brexit Secretary? Resign? We shall see...

NEW: PM to hold a press conference in No 10 at 5pm
? Beth Rigby (@BethRigby) November 15, 2018

15:10 - Betfair markets encouraging People's Vote campaign

Former Downing Street Press Secretary, Alastair Campbell - one of the leading proponents of the 'People's Vote' referendum - has been keeping a close eye on the Betfair Exchange markets today.

Betfair market now on whether we leave March 2019 now 50-50. I don't bet myself but it's another sign of tide shifting towards @peoplesvote_uk
? Alastair PEOPLE'S VOTE Campbell (@campbellclaret) November 15, 2018

14:26 - Grayling the next to go?

Reports that Transport Secretary Chris Grayling is also considering his position. He's available to back at 19.018/1 in the 'Next Cabinet Member to leave' market (any winning payout would be on a dead heat basis as Raab and McVey have also gone today).

An informed source suggests to me that Chris Grayling is considering his position as Transport Secretary. Would be another huge blow if Theresa May lost her campaign manager from the leadership election (and fellow former Merton councillor)
? Jonathan Isaby (@isaby) November 15, 2018

**13:21 - Rees Mogg finally delivers letter**

It's been discussed ad nauseum, as he might say, but Jacob Rees-Mogg has now delivered the a formal vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister by writing to the 1922 committee. And Graham Brady, chair of the committee, has just been in to see the chief whip...

Confirmed that Rees-Mogg has put his letter in , formal expression of no confidence in Theresa May
? Laura Kuenssberg (@bbclaurak) November 15, 2018

12:45 - Michael Gove's options

His absence from Parliament might be a mystery but the options around Michael Gove's future have started to become clearer, with sources hinting he's been offered the Brexit Secretary role after Dominic Raab's departure. The question is, will he do it or will he resign and go for the leadership instead?

He is 11.010/1 to become the Next Conservative Leader...

BREAKING

Michael Gove has been offered the job of Brexit Secretary, sources confirm.

But he's still wrestling with whether he will stay on at all in the wake of Raab's resignation. Which will it be?
? Steven Swinford (@Steven_Swinford) November 15, 2018

12:05 - Next Election too close to call

With hard Brexiter Jacob Rees Mogg unsurprisingly hinting at a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister, the prospect of another General Election looms large. The Exchange layers expect a close battle, with the Conservatives trading at 1.9620/21 to win most seats and Labour trading at 2.26/5.

'No Overall Majority' is the 2.47/5 favourite in the Overall Majority market, with the Tories a 3.185/40 chance and Labour available to back at 3.65.

Jacob Rees Mogg - 1280.jpg

10:57 - Corbyn favourite in next PM market

As Jeremy Corbyn responds to the Brexit deal in Parliament, he remains the favourite in the 'Prime Minister after May'. market, trading at 5.79/2.

Freshly out-of-a-job Dominic Raab has been backed in to 6.611/2, reflecting the support in the Next Conservative leader market we discussed earlier.

Michael Gove - mysteriously absent from Parliament this morning - is a 13.012/1 chance.

Somehow we are now in a place where Michael Gove of all people could become Prime Minister.
? Elliot Wengler (@Wengle) November 15, 2018

10:38 - Brexit specials could be lively

As Theresa May stands up in front of Parliament to discuss the Brexit deal, it's worth taking a look at a few of the Exchange specials we have up on site. 'First to happen - Brexit or a General Election?' could be an interesting one to follow amid rumours of a vote of no confidence in the Prime Minister.

The layers fully expect May to leave before any departure from the EU. In the 'First to happen - Brexit or May to leave' market, the PM trades at 1.162/13 with Brexit at 5.04/1

10:15 - McVey becomes second minister to jump ship

Earlier this morning I informed the Prime Minister I was resigning from her Cabinet pic.twitter.com/ZeBkL5n2xH
? Esther McVey (@EstherMcVey1) November 15, 2018

Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey has joined Dominic Raab in quitting the cabinet in protest at the Brexit deal, claiming it 'does not honour the result of the referendum'.

10:05 - PM odds-on to leave in coming weeks

Theresa May is strongly fancied to leave the post of Prime Minister this year as the fallout of the Brexit draft agreement continues.

Out at 25.024/1 last week, May is currently 1.654/6 to exit 10 Downing Street before 2019 begins.

Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab resigned this morning triggering talk of a leadership coup and it is Raab himself who heads the Brexit betting to be next Tory Leader at 6.611/2

Home Secretary Sajid Javid is considered the next likeliest candidate to lead the Tory party at 7.613/2 with perennial contender Boris Johnson the only other in single figure odds.

With Westminster in turmoil there are question marks over whether the UK will actually exit the EU on March 23, 2019, that option now 1.738/11 on Betfair having been backed at 1.331/3.

And people are speculating on the prospect of a second referendum -a 'People's Vote' before the end of 2020 has been backed in this morning to 2.68/5.

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