Premier League Tips: Selections for every game based on the Opta stats

Southampton manager Ralph Hasenhuttl.
Will Ralph Hasenhuttl be celebrating after Southampton's match with Manchester United?

Dan Fitch analyses the Opta Stats to make his weekly Premier League predictions including backing Southampton to pile more pressure on Manchester United...

“Southampton are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League games (W5 D2), with only Tottenham on a longer current run in the competition. Saints last went longer without defeat between September-November 2013 under Mauricio Pochettino (8).”

Against an erratic Manchester United side, the Saints look value to avoid defeat at 1.9110/11 in the Double Chance market.

Three points for Eagles

Crystal Palace 2.3411/8 v Newcastle 3.711/4; The Draw 3.39/4
Friday 27 November, 20:00
Live on Amazon Prime

"Crystal Palace have won two of their last three Premier League meetings with Newcastle (L1), as many as they had in their first 15 games against them in the competition (W2 D5 L8)."

Palace won their last home game against Leeds and with the possibility of Wilfried Zaha returning, they could claim three points at 2.3411/8.

Brighton will score against Liverpool

Brighton 5.79/2 v Liverpool 1.674/6; The Draw 4.3100/30
Saturday 28 November, 12:30
Live on BT Sport 1

"Liverpool's Premier League games have seen a league-high 23 goals in the first half so far this season, with the Reds scoring a league-high 12 and conceding a league-high 11 goals before half-time."

Brighton generally score and with Liverpool struggling on the road, both teams to score should land at 1.715/7.

Low scoring win for City

Manchester City 1.182/11 v Burnley 21.020/1; The Draw
Saturday 28 November, 15:00
Live on BT Sport 1

"Manchester City are averaging 15.7 shots and 5.3 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season, while they have a shot conversion rate of just 8% - all the lowest they've managed in a single campaign under Pep Guardiola so far."

With Burnley having tightened up lately, it's worth taking a chance on a Manchester City win and under 2.5 goals at 3.814/5.

Everton will come out on top in entertaining encounter

Everton 2.0421/20 v Leeds 3.814/5; The Draw 3.9
Saturday 28 November, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Everton goalkeeper Jordan Pickford has conceded 14 Premier League goals this season (excl. own goals), around four more than would be expected based on the quality of the shots on target he's faced (xGoT), the biggest negative difference for a keeper in the competition this season."

Everton rarely keep a clean sheet these days. Back a home win and both teams to score at 3.55/2.

Baggies struggling to score

West Brom 2.727/4 v Sheffield United 2.982/1; The Draw 3.39/4
Saturday 28 November, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"West Brom have had fewer big chances than any other Premier League side so far this season (3), while they also have the lowest expected goals (xG) value in the division (4.7)."

This looks destined to be a low-scoring match, with under 2.5 goals at 1.75/7.

Value with Saints

Southampton 4.1 v Manchester United 2.0421/20; The Draw 3.711/4
Sunday 29 November, 14:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Southampton are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League games (W5 D2), with only Tottenham on a longer current run in the competition. Saints last went longer without defeat between September-November 2013 under Mauricio Pochettino (8)."

Against an erratic Manchester United side, the Saints look value to avoid defeat at 1.9110/11 in the Double Chance market.

Goals in London derby

Chelsea 2.166/5 v Tottenham 3.814/5; The Draw 3.711/4
Sunday 29 November, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Spurs have kept just one clean sheet in their last 17 away matches against Chelsea in all competitions, a 0-0 draw in March 2012."

There should be goals in this one and you can back both teams to score at 1.674/6.

Goals not flowing for Gunners

Arsenal 2.166/5 v Wolves 3.9; The Draw 3.55/2
Sunday 29 November, 19:15
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Arsenal have scored just one goal in their last five Premier League games, failing to score in either of their last two. They last went three league games without scoring back in February 2016."

With Wolves hardly the most free-scoring side either, under 1.5 goals looks big at 3.02/1.

Another win for Foxes

Leicester 1.574/7 v Fulham 6.86/1; The Draw 4.57/2
Monday 30 November, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Leicester have won both of their Monday Premier League games so far in 2020 by an aggregate score of 8-1."

It's hard to see Leicester not winning this one, with a home victory and over 2.5 goals available at 2.35/4.

West Ham will extend run

West Ham 2.47/5 v Aston Villa 3.211/5; The Draw 3.711/4
Monday 30 November, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

"Aston Villa are winless in their last five Premier League away games against West Ham (D3 L2), failing to score in four of those visits since a 2-1 win in April 2011."

Villa looked short of ideas once Ross Barkley went off injured against Brighton last weekend and you can back West Ham to win at 2.47/5.

Dan Fitch 2020/21 Season P/L

Staked: 287.00 pts
Returned: 313.47 pts
P/L: +26.47 pts

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