Kevin Hatchard's European Football Tips: Milan to avoid defeat, Dortmund to falter

Valencia v Barcelona - No Alvarez, no problem

Sunday 06 September, 15:15
Live on Premier Sports

Barcelona were involved in one of the most intriguing transfer sagas of the summer, as they chased the signature of Atletico Madrid and Argentina star Julian Alvarez. While the World Cup winner had his heart set on a switch to Camp Nou, Atleti dug their heels in and refused to sell to their Catalan rivals.

Barca sold Ferran Torres to PSG and their other central striker Robert Lewandowski moved to MLS. However, Anthony Gordon looks to be a superb fit for Hansi Flick's football after the England forward's switch from Newcastle, while Gabriel Jesus has arrived in a cut-price move from Arsenal.

Not only can Gordon and Jesus play through the middle, but Raphinha has consistently proven he can play in central areas too. The Brazilian was the joint-top scorer in the Champions League two seasons ago, and he already has five goals across the first three matchdays of the La Liga season.

Barcelona have scored 12 league goals in three matches, and I think they'll add to that tally at Valencia this weekend. Carlos Corberan's team has claimed a solitary point from the first three matchdays, and last weekend's 3-1 reverse at Deportivo La Coruna felt like a body blow. Former West Brom and Huddersfield manager Corberan admitted his team were well below the level required, and indeed he said that the first half was the team's worst 45 minutes since he took charge.

Raphinha is evens to score here on the Sportsbook, and that feels generous given his exceptional form.

Juventus v Milan - Amorim's men can stay unbeaten

Sunday 06 September, 19:45
Live on TNT Sports

While his reputation took a battering at Manchester United (he isn't the first coach to suffer at Old Trafford and won't be the last), Ruben Amorim has a golden opportunity to build something at Milan this season. After completely choking last term, the Rossoneri needed a clean slate, and Amorim is a central figure of the rebuild.

The early signs are positive. Milan won 2-1 at Torino on the opening weekend and then they saw off Venezia 2-0 in Amorim's first home match. Record signing Goncalo Ramos was the star turn, scoring the opener and making the second. Ramos has come in from PSG, and the pressure's on for him to deliver and show that he can be a central figure rather than a useful squad member.

Juventus have also made a positive start to the campaign, winning 1-0 at Frosinone before seeing off Parma 2-0. New keeper Guglielmo Vicario has kept back-to-back clean sheets and made an outstanding save against Parma to preserve the Bianconeri's lead.

These two have played out some very tight contests in the last few years, with a remarkable four 0-0 draws across the last six clashes. I expect this to be a pretty close game between two teams on form, and on that basis I can't get on board with Juventus being 2.186/5 favourites. For what it's worth, Juve have won just three of their last eight Serie A home games.

I'll back Milan +0.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.824/5, which means we make profit as long as Milan avoid defeat.

Hoffenheim v Borussia Dortmund - Sinsheim slip-up for BVB

Saturday 05 September, 14:30

It was a mixed picture for Borussia Dortmund on Saturday, as the Bundesliga campaign got underway. While BVB were able to ease past Hamburg in a 2-0 victory, they lost summer signing Giannis Konstantelias to a serious knee injury. The German giants have moved to plug that gap by bringing in Arsenal teenager Ethan Nwaneri for a season-long loan.

With their Champions League opener against Villarreal on the horizon, this trip to Europa League qualifiers Hoffenheim seems awkwardly timed. Although TSG collapsed to a 3-2 defeat at Köln last weekend, their home form last season was the bedrock of their campaign. Christian Ilzer's side have won ten of their last 14 home matches in the Bundesliga, including a 2-1 win over Dortmund in mid-April.

Dortmund had a DFB Pokal tie in Hamburg on Tuesday, and while they won comfortably against minnows HEBC Hamburg, it was a still an away fixture that needed playing while Hoffenheim could devote their full energies towards preparing for this game. It's also worth noting that Dortmund have dropped points in five of their last ten away games in the German top flight.

We can back Hoffenheim +0 & +0.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.9620/21, so that a draw gives us a half-win and a home win pays out at nearly evens.

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