England v Spain: 23/10 Wembley draw looks best against sluggish starters

Three Lions looking to roar again

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Saturday 26 September, 19:45
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After being 1-0 up in the 85th-minute of their World Cup semi-final before losing to Argentina, England return to competitive action at Wembley. Well, they did beat France 6-4 in the third-place playoff but are we really counting that kickabout in Miami?

The fixture list couldn't have thrown up a tougher assignment for their first proper test. After mixing it with Greece, Finland and the Republic of Ireland in League B of the 2024/25 Nations League, the Three Lions' reward for promotion is an opening clash with World Cup winners Spain.

The last time England were in League B they didn't manage a single win in a group featuring Italy, Germany and Hungary so at least they should be able to clear that low bar in a group also featuring Croatia and the Czech Republic.

This is game one in a four-match international break which also features games home and away against the Czechs and a trip to Croatia inbetween.

Spain have elite record

As World Cup winners and current Euro champions after beating England in the 2024 final in Berlin, Spain are at the very top of the tree in world football.

It might be fair to think that they wouldn't take this tournament as seriously. Wrong!

In the last three editions of the Nations League, they've made the final each time. They lifted the trophy in 2023 after beating Croatia on penalties but were defeated 2-1 by France in 2021 and lost a shootout to Portugal in 2025.

Take out that penalty woe and Spain haven't lost in 38 matches. Take out friendlies and their last competitive defeat was in March 2023 - to Scotland!

Read Ste Tudor's early look at this weekend's action for bets in Nations League and EFL

England v Spain Tip1 - Timing may suit England

England have won 11 of their last 17 internationals in September so it's generally a good time of year for the Three Lions.

They've lost just twice in that run, although one came against Spain in this very competition - a 2-1 Wembley defeat in 2018.

That was England's first home game since reaching the 2018 World Cup semi-finals, and Luis Enrique's first match in charge of Spain.

I expect this to be close again and there's definitely scope to play the draw which is 23/103.30. Spain are 29/202.45 and England 9/52.80.

Why a stalemate?

Let's rewind to the summer when Spain actually kicked off what would prove a triumphant campaign with a 0-0 draw against Cape Verde.

That was further evidence that the Spanish can be slow starters.

Despite a brilliant record in big tournaments, when looking at first matches, they've drawn six of their last nine openers across the World Cup, Euros and Nations League.

Filtering it down to this tournament and they've drawn each of their last three opening matches - 0-0 against Serbia (away) and 1-1 against both Portugal (home) and Germany (away).

England v Spain Tip 2 - Duo appeal in big-priced Bet Builder

The last four meetings between this pair have produced goals - 13 in four matches.

That includes a 2-2 draw and three games that were settled by a single goal - 2-1, 2-1 and 3-2.

So, how about a Bet Builder on two players who made a huge impact at the World Cup and have started the new season strongly too.

For England, it's Jude Bellingham. The Three Lions No.10 was amazing in the USA/Mexico/Canada, scoring seven goals - normally a number that would win the Golden Boot.

Clearly, Tuchel knows how to get the best out of him as a goalscoring force.

In La Liga, Bellingham has scored three times in seven matches so far.

Ferran Torres scored the winner in the World Cup final. How many people can say that?!

The Spaniard moved to PSG in the summer and has been an instant hit, scoring seven times in six matches including a Champions League hat-trick.

He doesn't always start for Spain but hopefully that current form will get him the nod here.

An anytime goalscorer double pays an attractive 16/117.00.  

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