Premier League Saturday Tipsheet: Back Man City v Coventry bet builder and a 33/1 acca

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Newcastle v Bournemouth Tip - Back Cherries to avoid defeat

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Saturday, 12:30
Live on TNT Sports

Newcastle 23/202.15 have started the season well with a win at Tottenham and a draw at home to Liverpool but that might say more about their opposition given the Toon Army only had 42.5% and 39.2% possession respectively.

The losses of Bruno Guimaraes and Sandro Tonali in midfield plus the injury to Joelinton haven't been felt yet but they are only two games in. Nico Gonzalez made a good start in his debut last weekend but also picked up a card after just 13 minutes to perhaps show his vulnerability.

If matches finished after 80 minutes, Bournemouth 2/13.00 would be joint top of the league including a victory at Manchester City. In reality, they have only a point after two games. However, this trip will have no fear for the Cherries, having been unbeaten against Newcastle in their last eight meetings. Newcastle have really struggled having kept just one clean sheet in that period with Bournemouth scoring two or more in four of the last six of those meetings. The Cherries can avoid defeat here at the odds.

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Find out what Ste Tudor is backing in Newcastle v Bournemouth

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Brentford v Sunderland Tip - Back Mackems to keep scoreline tight

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Saturday, 15:00

Brentford 4/71.57 are the same price they were to beat hapless Wolves in March last season in a match that finished 2-2. Sunderland are far from hapless and finished above Brentford last season. Brentford were 1/12.00 when these two sides met in January so to now be 4/71.57 feels a move too far.

The Bees have started well, they had 26 shots versus Tottenham in matchday one and then 22 shots versus Leeds last weekend, but they did only create 1.61 xG from all those chances. After Leeds equalised, it felt like it was the home side who were going to go on and win.

Sunderland recovered from a narrow defeat at Ipswich on the opening day to defeat Fulham last week. The Black Cats can keep the scoreline closer than the odds suggest. Only five teams suffered fewer defeats than Sunderland last season.

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Brighton v Leeds Tip - Back Leeds on the road to stop the Seagulls

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Saturday, 15:00

Brighton were 4-0 up after just 31 minutes against Aston Villa on the opening day of the season, then found themselves 3-0 down at Chelsea after just 32 minutes, eventually going on to lose 4-3.

Leeds have started the season well with a win and a draw. They showed character to weather lots of Brentford shots and come away with a point. It means that, since Daniel Farke switched from a back four to a back three at the beginning of December, Leeds have lost just five of their last 26 Premier League games.

With Brighton having only won two of their last six and with a bit of an injury crisis in attack with no Tzimas, Ferguson, Mitoma, Minteh, Rutter and Hinshelwood, their odds of 4/51.80 are too short.

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Fulham v Crystal Palace Tip - Back the Eagles to soar

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Saturday, 15:00

I'm not ready to have Alvaro Arbeloa as a Premier League manager yet. Two defeats out of two to start his Fulham career and that's after arriving here with just a 64% win rate at Real Madrid - the man he replaced in Xabi Alonso's had a 71% win rate, for context.

Arbeloa was obviously appointed as a 'caretaker' by Madrid but even so I'm not sure he was qualified given he had just a 52% win record for the club's youth team.

Fulham lost Raul Jimenez and Harry Wilson who contributed 40% of their goals last season with their next highest scorer only registering four. It's telling that nobody else was in for either of the two replacements they signed from Real Madrid.

The new Crystal Palace manager in Pierre Sage has perhaps had his hands tied with team selections in the opening two defeats. Now that the transfer window has shut, and there is no uncertainty around futures for the next few months, I expect to see an improvement from Palace under a manager who finished second in Ligue 1 last season and won the French Cup.

I'm happy to view this as Arbeloa and Fulham v Sage and Palace. The visitors have the better manager and better team.

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Man City v Coventry Tip - Back comfortable City win

Click here for Man City v Coventry odds
Saturday, 15:00

Man City have begun life under Enzo Maresca with two wins out of two and, with Arsenal playing Chelsea on Sunday, they could end the weekend top of the league.

It's been a poor return to life in the top flight for Coventry with two defeats out of two. Their trip to Arsenal may give us a good indication of how this may likely play out. They had 36% possession, only managed four shots whilst conceding 20 and losing the xG battle 1.88 - 0.20.

City have scored six goals already so backing the Cityzens to win by more than one goal while not conceding looks a solid start. Adding Under 3.5 cards also looks a logical angle.

Quite often when a big favourite wins by at least a couple of goals, the intensity of a match can drop, leading to a more friendly-style of competitiveness and thus a low number of cards. City only picked up one card at home to Bournemouth and Coventry just one in their defeat at the Gunners.

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Get Opta stats and tips for every Premier League game this weekend

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Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Tip - Back Glasner against De Zerbi

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Saturday, 15:00

Roberto De Zerbi has a job on his hands. After all the money Tottenham have spent this summer, there is no hiding place for a side that finished 17th in the last two seasons, with the top six clearly the target. Unfortunately for De Zerbi, it doesn't look like it's going to click overnight from what we've seen in his first two games, with defeats in both and no goals scored. They've created the fourth fewest expected goals while conceding the third most.

Oliver Glasner's Nottingham Forest were excellent in their trip to Anfield last weekend and really should have gone home with all three points, having twice squandered the lead. They created 2.30 expected goals and were only eight minutes from victory. With the addition of Daniel Munoz, who knows Glasner's system inside-out, it's Forest who should be trusted at the prices while Spurs continue to find their feet.

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Hull City v Aston Villa Tip - Back cards in Saturday night feast

Click here for Hull City v Aston Villa odds
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports

What a start to the Premier League season for new boys Hull City. Two wins out of two and no goals conceded means they have a 100% record alongside Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea.

The key to Hull's success so far has been their work rate without the ball, having averaged just 30% possession so far. They face an Aston Villa side who are a work-in-progress having lost the spine of their side over the summer. It's therefore no surprise the Villains have failed to have a shot-on-target from just the 13 they've managed, creating only 0.62 xG. This looks like another tight game in-store and that brings the cards angle into play.

Over 3.5 cards is 7/81.88 and has a good chance here. Hull have already had six cards in their two games and across Villa's three competitive matches they've accrued 10 cards. The Tigers picked up by far the most cards in the Championship last season and 10 of their last 14 home games have seen four or more cards.

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Stinch's Acca - Back my best bets in an acca at 33/134.00

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