Liverpool v Villarreal: Back Reds to win in 23/1 bet builder

Reds form is ramping up

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Tuesday, 20:00
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Liverpool are one of a cluster of nine teams who have made a perfect start in the Champions League.

Two games in, they've taken maximum points with a goal difference of +4. Only three teams - PSG, Barcelona and Aston Villa - have scored more goals than Liverpool but no side above 16th in the table has conceded more (4).

Liverpool's 6-3 win over LASK last week has obviously skewed these numbers but, that nine goal thriller aside, they've improved as the season has gone on.

Andoni Iraola's side have won six of their last eight which includes the 2-1 win over Atletico Madrid on matchday one of this competition, where they came from behind.

In the Premier League, they also came from behind to beat Brentford on Saturday and, after drawing three of their first four, the Reds are beginning to turn a point into three more consistently.

I am not opposed to getting them onside in some fashion on Tuesday, just not at 40/851.47 in the 1x2 with the Betfair Sportsbook.

Liverpool v Villarreal (Match Odds)

Tuesday 20 Oct 2026 at 20:00

Liverpool v Villarreal Tip 1: Back hosts in goal-laden clash

Like Tuesday's hosts, Villarreal have improved in recent weeks. They started the campaign winless across their first six games (D2 L4) but, since the home defeat to Real Betis in mid-September, the Spanish side have only lost once, winning three of their last five games.

In Europe, they narrowly lost a five goal thriller at Borussia Dortmund in their first game but rallied with a 3-1 win over Napoli last time out. 

They'll fancy their chances at Anfield. In La Liga, only Barcelona and Real Madrid have racked up a higher xG (19.5), have a better xG difference than Villarreal (8.8) and have created more 'big chances' (31).

So while I expect Liverpool to have too much for the Yellow Submarine, I'd fancy the visitors to get amongst the goals.

At 13/82.63 with the Betfair Sportsbook, backing Liverpool to win and both teams to score appeals. 

Liverpool v Villarreal Tip 2: Mikautadze to be amongst the goals

Sticking along the goals thread, Georges Mikautadze's price to score anytime is worth a punt. 

Domestically, he tops his side's charts for xG (4.2), shots on target per 90 (2.1) and shots per 90 (4.1). So just about every attacking metric but he's only scored twice which is a massive underachievement.

In Europe, it's a similar story, he's top for xG, shots per 90, second for shots on target per 90 but with one goal, he's underperforming his underlying data. 

That said, he should get chances at Anfield and at 13/53.60 I'm happy to take a punt on him taking one.

It's not like he's hopeless at finishing and may just be going through a rough patch. He scored 13 times in La Liga last season, has a domestic career goals per 90 average of 0.61 and an average of 0.44 in European competitions.

Liverpool v Villarreal Tip 2: Back Gueye to be shown a card

Szymon Marciniak has the whistle for this one and his 4.32 card per game average in the Champions League means the card market is worth a look.

Pape Gueye is expected to anchor the midfield for the visitors and with a career cards per 90 average of 0.37, his price of 5/23.50 to be shown a card is worth a punt. 

Gueye picked up three cards in twice as many starts in this competition last season and could open his account for the campaign on Tuesday as he marshalls Liverpool's star studded attack. 

Jimmy's Bet Builder: Back his best bets in 23/1 bet builder

Fancy combining all of my bets? Here's how you can back all three in Tuesday's match at an appealing price.

Now read our latest Champions League previews here!