Arsenal v Chelsea: Go low on goals as Blues' attack meets Gunners' defensive wall

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Sunday 6 September, 16:30
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Arsenal v Chelsea Match Odds - Side with the champs

There is plenty to like about Chelsea going forward, but I'm not convinced they are ready for this test so early in the season.

Xabi Alonso has injected some serious attacking electricity into the Blues but this rebuild remains a work in progress. Their defensive numbers are a huge red flag.

Chelsea have gone 18 Premier League games without a clean sheet, while Arsenal have kept 10 in that period. Signs against Brighton, in the Blues' 4-3 win, were worrying for Chelsea, especially from set pieces. Arsenal will have been watching.

The head-to-head doesn't offer much encouragement either. Chelsea have won just one of their last 16 meetings with Arsenal in all competitions, while Arsenal have won seven and drawn three of the last 10 league encounters.

With Arsenal 8/111.73 on the Betfair Sportsbook, Chelsea 18/54.60 and the draw 3/14.00, the hosts aren't giving much away in the match odds market. But I'm happy to pay the price.

Chelsea's attacking threat means this could be a fascinating game, but in a fixture of this magnitude, I'm siding with the champions' greater cohesion and defensive reliability.

Arsenal 8/111.73 is the starting point for me.

Read Ste Tudor on this weekend's Premier League action

Arsenal v Chelsea Bet 1 - Row against goals at Emirates

The market looks to have been seduced by Chelsea's attacking start. Their first two Premier League games have produced 12 goals, while Arsenal have opened the season with consecutive clean sheets.

So why is Under 2.5 goals available at 1/12.00, making it the outsider of the two outcomes? I'm not sure that is right.

You are a brave punter to back games to go goal crazy at the Emirates.

Arsenal have made a habit of controlling matches at home and their defensive numbers are particularly eye-catching: 11 clean sheets in their last 14 home games and just three goals conceded across their last 13 home in all competitions.

That's not the profile of a team where the over goal lines are appealing.

Arsenal's last 30 home games in all competitions have averaged only 2.58 goals per game. This is a side built to suffocate opponents as much as it is to hurt them.

And that could be particularly relevant against Chelsea. Xabi Alonso's side have plenty of attacking weapons and have looked electric in patches, but they are unlikely to get the space they enjoyed in those early games here.

Arsenal are arguably the best team in Europe out of possession. Once they establish their press and defensive structure, the game can become very different.

Then there is the Cole Palmer factor. Mikel Arteta will have a plan for him. You can be certain of that.

If Arsenal can restrict Chelsea's chief creative outlet, I can see this reverting to the typical Arsenal game: control the territory, control the tempo and, if necessary, shut it down.

The excitement around Chelsea's attack may be inflating this goal line. Under 2.5 at 1/12.00 looks the value play to me.

Premier League Matchday 3: Opta stats and tips for every game

Arsenal v Chelsea Bet 2 - Play your cards right with Neto

Pedro Neto is 100/304.30 to be booked with Betfair. That's a great bet. Why? Because he looks likely to have the job of dealing with Christos Tzolis.

The new signing from Club Brugge hit the ground running in his first home game against Coventry, producing a direct, fearless performance on his Premier League debut.

He was constantly looking to attack his man, drive into dangerous areas and get shots away. The Greek winger brings an excellent card-drawing record from his time at Club Brugge, drawing a card every 206 minutes. That's a very healthy strike-rate.

Neto is being aske to do more defensive work in this Chelsea wing-back system and has looked uncomfortable in one-on-one situations. The converted winger has only been carded in three of his last 15 starts for Chelsea but this is all about the match-up - that's why the price appeals.

Like our tips? You can back both Lewis' bets in a double that pays at 7/18.00

Now read more Premier League betting advice here