Best Weekend Football Bets: Back England and Bellingham to down Croatia plus 13/1 Burton shout

The Big Game Preview

Croatia v England - Hosts demoralised

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Nations League, Group 3
Saturday, 17:00 kick-off
Live on ITV

There is no shame in being dismantled by the world champions away but all-the-same it's pertinent that this was Croatia's fate on Tuesday evening.

They now host England demoralised, without the benefit of home supporters following a UEFA sanction, and aware that the Three Lions had their number at the World Cup just three months ago.

We can expect Jude Bellingham to start after being rested vs Czech Republic and it was the Real Madrid man who orchestrated that 4-2 win in Texas, scoring for good measure. He is 12/53.40 to convert again on Saturday.

It will also be interesting to see if Trent Alexander-Arnold and Lewis Hall retain the full-back berths after impressing against the Czechs. It was down their flanks where Croatia suffered the most in Spain.

Croatia have only failed to score twice in their last 18 outings so backing them to beat Jordan Pickford at some point is logical. England though have shaken off their highly disappointing World Cup semi-final exit well.

Burton v Huddersfield - Back the draw, ultimately

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League One
Saturday, 15:00 kick-off

Seventh hosts sixth at the Pirelli Stadium this weekend and at first glance it's the visitors who are fancied, with most of the key stats landing in their favour.

The Terriers have registered 32 more shots than Burton and 33 more key passes. Their tally of 43 shots on target is a joint-league high.

Moreover, they have one of the meanest defences in the division, conceding just 0.8 goals per 90 to this juncture.

But, crucially, Burton score a lot of first-half goals - 61.5% of their total in fact - while there is the distinct possibility of a draw to consider.

Half of Huddersfield's away fixtures have finished honours even while Burton have drawn three of their four at home.

Reading v Bradford - Bantams approach to backfire

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League One
Saturday, 15:00 kick-off

This could very conceivably be one of the games of the weekend.

Bradford are top and with good reason, keeping clean sheets in five of their seven outings to date. The Yorkshire side may not be overly-prolific up front but with Aden Baldwin in particular excelling at the back they don't need to be.

Last week's showing at Luton epitomised their approach this term, ceding two-thirds of the possession to the Hatters and subsequently facing 15 shots. End result...0-1 to the league leaders.

Will they similarly invite Reading onto them this weekend? If they do it will be a mistake because the Royals throw the proverbial kitchen sink at opponents at the Madejski, scoring 13 goals on home soil in reward. That's a goal every 27 minutes.

Gillingham v Newport - Goals and drama delayed

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League Two
Saturday, 15:00 kick-off

Newport are winless on their travels while the Gills have kept a clean sheet in their last two at home. The hosts to win to nil is a shout at 5/23.50

Far more persuasive, however, is a pair of related stats that strongly point to goals flying in after the break, not before.

Nine of Gillingham's 11 goals this season have been scored in the second period. Eleven of Newport's goals conceded have come in the second half.

Backing the hosts at 60 minutes is an option at 13/102.30 but perhaps it's better to stay a touch conservative and see the bet home.

North Macedonia v Scotland - Two blunted attacks

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Nations League, Group 1
Saturday, 19:45 kick-off

Scotland's last goal was against Haiti at the World Cup and since then they've been a real curate's egg from an attacking perspective.

Against Brazil, to round off their World Cup misery, and last weekend in Slovenia, they showed a fair amount of ambition, racking up a decent number of chances.

But against Morocco, and last night at home to Switzerland, they failed to register a single shot on target. In the latter their xG amounted to 0.09.

Of course, they had the mother of all excuses, being deprived of Jack Hendry just 11 minutes in. But though they showed plenty of heart there was a notable absence of guile.

The Lynxes' attacking woes are even more severe, their last goal a consolation at Wales amidst a thorough thumping. That was ten hours of international football ago.

There might be a goal, or even two, in this, but expecting both teams to find the back of the net feels like a stretch.

Spain v Czech Republic - Clear-cut home win

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Nations League, Group 3
Saturday, 19:45 kick-off

Until they had their best player sent off 25 minutes in, the Repre took the game to England last night in Prague, creating a couple of openings.

The panicked manner in which they wasted them says a great deal about a side that has notably gone backwards since qualifying for the World Cup.

Now with Pavel Šulc unavailable to them - typically their best source for creativity - Santi Denia's side heads to Oviedo to face a formidable, fluid and basically superb Spanish collective, unbeaten in 40 matches.

The aggregate scoreline from those games is a comprehensive 102-31.

From Yamal's alchemy, to Rodri's metronomic control, to a brilliantly constructed defence there is an awful lot to wax lyrical about with this side. But ultimately, the most impressive thing about them is how they immediately - game after game - settle into their rhythm and refuse to be rattled. Here they are unlikely to even be mildly tested.

La Roja have scored inside half-an-hour in 26 of those 40.

Wales v Denmark - Dragons have lost their fire

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Nations League, Group 4
Sunday, 19:45 kick-off
Live on BBC1 Wales

Backing Denmark to win by exactly two goals landed at 7/2 last week and there is every chance lightning will strike twice on Sunday.

The Danes have scored 2+ goals in each of their last six away fixtures while Wales have failed to keep a clean sheet at home in six. Furthermore, Joe Rodon was expected to be a big miss for Craig Bellamy's side going into this break and so it has transpired.

Before facing Rasmus Hojlund and co, Wales have to deal with Erling Haaland and co on Thursday so it's likely a struggling rearguard could be further dispirited going into this one.
Without question, this is a tough period for the Dragons.

Now read Lewis Jones' Betting Notebook, tipping Spurs to drop, here