UK Politics Betting: Fifty Seats That Will Decide The Election - Seats 6-10

UK Politics / Paul Krishnamurty / 09 February 2010 / Leave a Comment

Chippenham will provide a chance to assess David Cameron's strategy of fast-tracking 'A-List' parliamentary candidates into winnable seats

"The Tory candidate here is Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones, better known to TV viewers and sausage connoiseurs as the 'Black Farmer'. Chippenham is a new seat created by the boundary changes, so while the Lib Dems have a notional majority, they won't receive any of the positive 'incumbency effect' that their MPs usually rely on."

Paul Krishnamurty tells us why the winners in places like Chippenham, Watford and Angus could make a big difference in the outcome of the upcoming election.

Chippenham

Conservative Target No. 22 (1.35% swing required)

Another key battle with the Lib Dems, and a chance to assess David Cameron's strategy of fast-tracking 'A-List' parliamentary candidates into winnable seats. The Tory candidate here is Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones, better known to TV viewers and sausage connoiseurs as the 'Black Farmer'. Chippenham is a new seat created by the boundary changes, so while the Lib Dems have a notional majority, they won't receive any of the positive 'incumbency effect' that their MPs usually rely on.

Verdict: Fame factor should be enough for the Tories.

Taunton Deane

Conservative Target No. 26 (1.5% swing required)

The 'safest' of nine Lib Dem seats among the top-30 Tory targets. This tightly contested marginal has changed hands twice since 1997, with the Lib Dems regaining it last time after Jackie Ballard had alienated local hunt supporters in 2001. Two pieces of bad news for sitting MP Jeremy Browne are that he has virtually no more tactical Labour support to squeeze, and it can't help that he was implicated in the expenses scandal. It should be added that Browne went on to clear his name, but the damage may have been done.

Verdict: Tories should be a solid bet with so many factors in their favour.

Perth & North Perthshire

Conservative Target No. 30 (1.65% swing required)

Another early reminder on the Tory target list that they'll need to do more in this election than just beat an unpopular Labour government. In this tight battle with the SNP, their principal opponents are another party that has thrived since a poor result in 2005, largely because they have managed to fill the role of default alternative to Labour. While Cameron's party is evidently making big strides across England, the Tories remain a minority voice north of the border so success here would represent a significant breakthrough.

Verdict: Incumbency and recent Scottish political trends make SNP favourites, but Perth history suggests its too close to call.

Watford

Conservative Target No. 38 (1.96% swing required)

The safest conclusion to make about this genuine three-way marginal is that the sitting MP is the least likely winner this time around. Given the general anti-Labour swing since 2005, Claire Ward faces a mountainous task defending a 1151 majority, and is expected to finish third. That isn't necessarily good news for the Tories though, as it was the Lib Dems who finished second last time as the main recipient of ex-Labour votes, and they also dominate local government. It's precisely the type of urban, ethnically diverse seat where the Lib Dems are building a strong base and Tories have tended to struggle.

Verdict: If the Lib Dems don't take this, they're probably in for a miserable night.

Angus

Conservative Target No. 39 (2.1% swing required)

The second big Tory/SNP battleground is as hard to call as Perth. As always in Scotland, there are numerous tactical factors to consider. When the SNP became the government for Scotland's devolved adminstration, they did so with the tactical support of many former Tory and Lib Dem voters. Which way will they turn now, especially given that the shine is beginning to wear off Alex Salmond's administration? The SNP usually poll better in Holyrood elections than Westminster contests, yet managed to win this last time round on what was generally a bad night.

Verdict: Another knife-edge marginal