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London Mayoral Election Betting: Can Boris stop odds-on Ken?

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Chickendinner examine the credentials needed to land the capital's plum job...

It's nearly time for political pundits to start intoning "It's a marathon, not a sprint" again, as the London mayoral election race starts to lumber around the track. With five months' campaigning left, Ken Livingstone is [1.46] to win, Boris Johnson is [2.86], Brian Paddick is [10.5] and you can get [55.0] on any other candidate. The identity of London's top bureaucrat depends on the following...

The issues!

Transportation (a significant issue for 82 per cent of voters), health services (80 per cent) and policing (79 per cent) are the top priorities for most voters, according to a recent poll by the London Policy Institute. The Mayor has little control over health, but watch their positions on the other two issues. Boris Johnson may be wasting his time trying to rabble-rouse about the Congestion Charge (which was introduced by Livingstone in 2003), 44% of people polled said it wasn't a major concern for them. Johnson failed to vote in Parliament on Crossrail and on preserving free transport for the elderly, something the Livingstone people will be making sure everyone is aware of.

The personalities!

Respondents to the LPI survey also said policies were more important than personality, which means that Johnson will have to do more than criticise "cyclist-killing" bendy buses and denounce his rival as a "gigantic newt". However, Boris Johnson's ability to generate Duke-of-Ednburgh style, gaffe-based bad press will hinder him. Johnson's decision to quit drinking is unlikely to affect his popularity, although the fact that he is standing because no other prominent Tory wanted to doesn't help him.

The ineptitude!

With the government standing chest deep in trouble, thanks to illegal donations, lost computer disks and a rapidly darkening economy, the Livingstone campaign may inherit a less than enthusiastic turnout. While Livingstone is largely insulated against national calamity, voter apathy is a concern. Labour were well ahead in the opinion polls at the time of Ken Livingstone's first two mayoral victories (although he stood in the first election as an independent), but with the Conservatives currently edging ahead (by 9%, according to an Ipsos MORI opinion poll published at the end of November) the Johnson campaign may also pick up a few extra energy packs.

Boris's buffoonery

Few politicians in the UK have as high a profile as Boris Johnson. Former editor of The Spectator, occasional star of Have I Got News For You and Public Enemy Number One in the city of Liverpool, his choirboy features and floppy blonde hair are the most recognisable political accessories since Maggie Thatcher's handbag. But such a profile comes at a price, and many voters remain suspicious of his credentials. In a recent YouGov opinion poll, the only age group that voted for Johnson over Livingstone were the over-55s, and in the last Census in 2001, only 19% of London's population fell into that age bracket.

Swinging voters

Voters must vote for their first and second choice mayor, and if no candidate receives 50% of the first-choice votes, the second-choice votes come into play.
In a recently published poll, Johnson (21%) came out on top against Livingstone (16%) in the battle for the swinging voters, which suggests an advantage to the Tory man if Ken can't stretch his current opinion poll lead.

Pre-established allegiances

All four directly elected mayors in London (including Ken Livingstone) represent the Labour party, and three (Steve Bullock, Lewisham; Robin Wales, Newham; Jules Pipe, Hackney) were re-elected in May 2006 even when the Conservatives enjoyed a 10% lead in the opinion polls.
Furthermore, of the 13 directly-elected mayors in the UK, seven represent Labour and only one is a Conservative (Torbay, since you ask).