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Ken v Boris Betting: A battle of political masterminds

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Will this just be the most entertaining election for many a year, or is there actually some bite in this 'political dog'? Chickendinner investigates...

This has turned out to be a vintage year for political drama, thanks mainly to the efforts in America of Hillary Clinton and Barrack Obama to turn the race for the Democratic nomination to into a celebrity death match. While that contest prepares for a probable grand finale at the Democratic Convention in the summer, attention turns in the UK to the slightly less intense spectacle of Ken Livingstone vs Boris Johnson in the race to be next mayor of London.

A piece in the Financial Times a few weeks ago suggested that the Conservative Party's objective for this election was for its candidate, Boris Johnson, to perform outstandingly well yet lose by a nose. The party wanted to send a clear message to their Labour opponents that they were again capable of standing toe-to-toe with them at the ballot box, and that after years in the wilderness they had been reborn as a political force. However, they didn't want their candidate to do so well as to actually win the vote, and risk demolishing their hard work with his trademark, headline-grabbing buffoonery and insensitivity.

As things stand, it seems the Tories are going to get their wish, as Boris Johnson trails Mayor Livingstone in the betting, but only by a whisker. Boris is [2.06] to win on Betfair, Ken is [1.97]. With the election still several weeks away on May 1, these prices have yet to reflect any serious, high profile campaigning on the part of either candidate. While neither has yet taken the opportunity to share their thoughts at length on how best to run the capital over the next four years, both have still been filling column inches with other activities, which go some way to explaining the closeness of these prices.

In a normal world, a candidate such as Boris Johnson, who for all his intelligence, charisma and debating ability never fails to go that extra mile to antagonise and insult the electorate, would be taken no more seriously than Chris Prior of the Stop Congestion Charging Party (currently 130.0 on Betfair, FYI). Yet thanks to the honk of corruption and cronyism issuing from the Livingstone administration, Johnson is within touching distance in the betting markets.

Livingstone's woes stem from the activities of his former race relations aide Lee Jasper, who quit last week following the publication of sexual emails which he sent to a woman whose projects received six-figure grants from the Greater London Authority on Mr Jasper's say so. A fraud investigation has been launched into a string of projects linked to Mr Jasper, and two people have so far been arrested. Mr Johnson has yet to make any serious political capital from the fiasco, and while he may be wise to stand back and let the stain spread where it will, his own major foray into the papers over the past week has been on the eccentric matter of his supposed descent from a slave.

"I want you to know that my great-great-grandmother was a slave, so put that in your pipe and smoke it, Mr Livingstone," was his comment, which brought an avalanche of press while being of no discernible benefit to his campaign. This seems to be one of Mr Johnson's signature campaign techniques.

As the clock ticks down to polling day, both candidates will be forced to sharpen their positions on the key issues (London voters claimed transportation, policing and health were their three most pressing concerns, although health is not much of a local government concern.) Yet two major intangibles have already inserted themselves into the process - the graft that remains to be uncovered in City Hall and the gun-to-foot utterances that Mr Johnson is yet to make.