General Election Party Focus: The Conservatives

UK Politics / Paul Krishnamurty / 29 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

The odds suggest a Conservative majority is likely - but there is opposition to his party as defaced adverts show

"Doubtless, Cameron would like this election to be a referendum on Gordon Brown and his unpopular government, hoping that the overwhelming desire for 'change' will sweep his party to victory. So far, so good for that strategy, but can they retain that simple narrative for the whole campaign?"

David Cameron will base his campaign around Labour's failings but do the party have weaknesses of their own? Paul Krishnamurty takes the Tories' temperature in late January

The latest ICM/Guardian poll (the pollster with the best record at recent General Elections) estimates Tory support at 40 per cent. If their current 11% lead were reproduced at the election, it would represent by far the biggest post-war swing towards the Conservatives at 6.9%, compared to the previous best of 5.3% achieved by Margaret Thatcher in 1979, but still well below Tony Blair's 10% swing in 1997.

Cameron's task is complicated by Britain's quirky electoral system though. In order to achieve that majority of 56, the Tories need to win 155 extra seats, eight more even than Labour's gain from that massive 1997 victory. Some small compensation lies in boundary changes that are estimated to add roughly 11 seats to the Tory total.

Doubtless, Cameron would like this election to be a referendum on Gordon Brown and his unpopular government, hoping that the overwhelming desire for 'change' will sweep his party to victory. So far, so good for that strategy, but can they retain that simple narrative for the whole campaign?

An alternative school of thought suggests that the Tory lead is 'soft', and based on voter dissatisfaction with Labour rather than any great enthusiasm for Cameron's party. That, once the heat of an election campaign ensures public scrutiny of their policies, their lead will shrink. Already, scrutiny of Conservative policies on Europe, marriage tax allowances and prison ships have revealed a lack of detail, or unity in their plans.

Such scrutiny or indeed the assumed negative reaction cannot be taken for granted though, whereas we can confidently state that they are much better prepared in both financial and organisational terms. Labour and Lib Dem supporters bemoan the abundance of money and resources at the Tories' disposal, having seen key marginals flooded with glossy party literature for the last few years. That theory supports polling evidence that the Conservatives are performing even better in the important marginal seats than national trends would otherwise indicate.