General Election Party Focus: Labour

UK Politics / Paul Krishnamurty / 29 January 2010 / Leave a Comment

Gordon Brown will be wondering about his future if polls continue to paint a bleak picture for Labour

"Any Labour comeback would probably require an improvement in the country's economic outlook, but if that does appear they will try and paint a Brown/Cameron contest as one of substance over style, or competence over inexperience."

An economic turnaround is key if Labour are to avoid anything over than general election whitewash, says Paul Krisnmaurty

Nobody from Labour HQ would ever say it in public, but the party must know its best realistic target is to prevent the Conservatives winning a majority. Given the vast numbers of gains required, 'No Overall Majority' remains a plausible [4.1] chance, even accounting for those one-sided polls. In order to gain a decent majority, the Tories will need to win several marginal seats that include high proportions of voter groups where support has previously been weak; e.g. public sector workers, inner-city residents and ethnic minorites.

While surely knowing that Gordon Brown is never going to thrive in a personality contest, Labour will hope that he can regain some of the gravitas he radiated as Chancellor. Polls following the 2005 election suggested that it was Brown's assumed 'competence' that hauled Labour over the finishing line rather than the personal qualities of the increasingly unpopular Blair.

Any comeback would probably require an improvement in the country's economic outlook, but if that does appear they will try and paint a Brown/Cameron contest as one of substance over style, or competence over inexperience. Much will be made of Brown's respect on the global stage - a strategy Margaret Thatcher used to great effect in her 1987 election victory.

In addition, by emphasising some of the more controversial Conservative positions, for example on inheritance tax or public spending. Labour will hope to motivate some of the millions of previous Labour voters who either abandoned them or abstained after 1997. Faced with the prospect of a Conservative government, turnout amongst core Labour voters could rise.