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UK General Election Constituency Betting: How many of these top-ten SNP targets will fall?

Paul Krishnamurty
02 December 2019

Nicola Sturgeon is eyeing big gains on December 12

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Scottish polls are predicting a big rise in the number of SNP seats. Paul Krishnamurty analyses their top-ten targets, ranked by majority...

"Gordon produced a 'Portillo moment' in 2017, as former First Minister Alex Salmond was ejected on a 20% swing...it has backed a different party in each of the last three elections."

Stirling

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Stirling voted for different parties in each of the last three elections and was a particularly impressive gain for the Tories in 2017, who were buoyant at that time under Ruth Davidson. However with the latest Scottish poll projecting 5% swing from CON-SNP since 2017, the 158 Tory majority here is in grave peril. This is a 68% Remain, university seat and the SNP are dominant in Holyrood elections.

Rutherglen and Hamilton West

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Hard to see anything other than an SNP pick-up here. They start just 265 votes behind Labour - whom latest Scottish polls indicate a 9% swing against since the 2017 election. This is fertile SNP territory. They won over 52% in 2015 and are well ahead in Holyrood.

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

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Gordon Brown's old seat was reclaimed by Labour in 2017 following their 2015 massacre. The SNP are miles ahead at Holyrood level and a 259 majority is no defence against the wider LAB-SNP swing. Hope may be at hand, though, because the SNP have withdrawn support from their candidate in light of anti-semitism comments. Neale Hanvey is continuing as an independent whilst the SNP cannot replace him.

Glasgow North East

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This was another great win for Labour in 2017, reclaiming the seat on a 12% swing. Again though, a 242 majority is unlikely to be enough on projected swing and in the current climate. Nicola Sturgeon's powerful performances in various national TV debates will surely boost the SNP in independence supporting areas like Glasgow.

Midlothian

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The SNP are dominant in both Midlothian seats for the Scottish Parliament, so one would think they will find the necessary 1% swing to reclaim this from Labour with relative ease. They won 50% here in 2015, demonstrating their potential to outstrip a mere 43% support for independence in the 2014 referendum.

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill

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History suggests this will always be one of Labour's strongest Scottish constituencies but again, the writing is on the wall given the projected 9% swing to the SNP since 2017. This seat is in North Lanarkshire, which voted for independence, and the nationalists romped to 56% at their 2015 peak.

Gordon

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Gordon produced a 'Portillo moment' in 2017, as former First Minister Alex Salmond was ejected on a 20% swing. Not untypically for Scotland, it has backed a different party in each of the last three elections but is now clearly a CON-SNP marginal. A 2.5% swing will be enough - comfortably within range compared to a projected 4.5% swing across Scotland.

East Lothian

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Also previewed here as an unlikely Tory target. Seven percentage points separated LAB/SNP/CON in 2017 and according to the Yougov MRP survey, the margin is just 4% this time with SNP ahead. They start favourites given Labour's troubles in Scotland but would be vulnerable to a comeback as they hold the Holyrood seat.

Edinburgh West

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This constituency voted 71% to Remain so, with Lib Dem Christine Jardine the incumbent here, the SNP are unlikely to receive any Brexit dividend. Independence may therefore play a bigger part in considerations - Edinburgh was 61% against. 'West' has backed the Lib Dems in every election since 1992 apart from the 2015 SNP landslide.

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

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This was another amazing result for Ruth Davidson's Tories in 2017, taken on a 17.5% swing. Their vote is solid at Holyrood level so a stern defence is expected in an area that is less Remain than the Scottish average. Nevertheless the 3% swing required is less than the SNP are achieving overall, and there are 24% Labour share is bound to fall. Where those votes go is pivotal.

For more tips and insight on the Election, check out the Politics...Only Bettor podcast, where Paul joins Betfair trader Joe Lee and The Sun on Sunday's political correspondent Ryan Sabey to discuss all the latest from the campaign trail and the Betfair markets

Follow Paul on Twitter and check out his website, Political Gambler.

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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UK General Election Constituency Betting: How many of these top-ten SNP targets will fall?

Stirling

Rutherglen and Hamilton West

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

Glasgow North East

Midlothian

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill

Gordon

East Lothian

Edinburgh West

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

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Stirling

Rutherglen and Hamilton West

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

Glasgow North East

Midlothian

Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill

Gordon

East Lothian

Edinburgh West

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

New customers can get £20 in free bets!

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