UK Politics: Reform overtake Tories in GE betting and Badenoch backed to leave in 2026

• Reform at shorter odds than Tories in next election betting

• Badenoch exit in 2026 backed on the Betfair Exchange

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Reform close on Tories and Labour in election betting

Kemi Badenoch passed the 100 days milestone as Tory leader at the same time as her party was overtaken by Reform UK in the next general election betting on the Betfair Exchange.

Labour 2.747/4 are the favourites to win the most seats next time Britons go to the polls. But Reform 2.915/8 are not far behind, and continue to attract support from bettors, while the Tories are out to 3.613/5. 

That's a bad sign for Badenoch when you consider that the Betfair Exchange has correctly called the outcome of 23 of the last 25 major elections. 

But Labour are also wary of the threat from Reform. This week Keir Starmer's party made a pitch for the Reform vote by insisting that they are tackling illegal immigration with a series of gimmicks. That drew criticism from the left of the party and potentially risks alienating more liberal sections of the electorate.

Reform's momentum appeared to have stalled a few weeks ago when Elon Musk, who is a member of Donald Trump's government in the US, said he would not donate to the party while Nigel Farage was leader.

But talk of Farage being ousted has quietened down and bettors have not been quick to get involved in the Exchange market on the next Reform leader.

Instead, they are backing the party to make an historic impact at the next general election which is scheduled for 2029. It won't be easy, as they only have five seats and the electoral system strongly favours the two main parties, but the latest market moves show that some are willing to put their money on a dramatic shake-up.

Next Tory Leader - Will Tories replace Badenoch in 2026?

There were reports last week that Conservative MPs were expressing reservations about Badenoch in private. So how long will she last as leader?

In the Betfair Exchange market on her year of exit, 2026 is the new favourite at 2.35/4. That would probably mean Badenoch would follow Liz Truss and Iain Duncan-Smith as Conservative leaders who did not get the chance to lead the party into a general election. 

The Tories were in opposition when Duncan-Smith was given just two years and two months as leader. Like IDS, Badenoch is on the right of the party, is arguably more popular with the party membership than with her MPs and performs badly in the media.

Then again, she is still the 3.052/1 favourite to be the leader at the next election. James Cleverly, who was defeated by Badenoch in last year's leadership election, is 5.04/1 and may stand a decent chance of suceeding her if the MPs manage to keep the decision out of the hands of the membership.

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Trump's victory in November's US election meant that the Betfair Exchange has correctly predicted the outcome of 23 of the last 25 major elections, so the markets are a valuable way of gauging which way the electorate is leaning.

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