Euro 2024

Euro 2024 Day 12 Cheat Sheet: Best tips and Euros podcast as Groups C & D conclude

Euro 2024 Day 12 Cheat Sheet
Get our experts' best bets for day 12 at Euro 2024

England take on Slovenia in a crucial Group C clash and there are three other matches on day 12 of Euro 2024. Get our experts best bets...

England Superboost

Gareth Southgate's men have flown out of the blocks in both Group C encounters at Euro 2024, playing on the front foot from the first whistle and scoring early against both Serbia and Denmark.

We think England will start strongly again tonight, and because we like to play different, we're happy to pay out on another fast start for the Three Lions.

So if you fancy England to register at least one shot in the first 10 minutes against Slovenia this evening, then take advantage of our super-boosted price of 1/12.00 (from 1/41.25) now.

Football Only Bettor Euros Daily Podcast - Listen to Tuesday's tips here!

Group C Permutations

England will reach the round of 16 if they avoid defeat against Slovenia or Denmark do not beat Serbia. England will win the group if they beat Slovenia or England draw and Denmark do not win. If England draw and Denmark win they will be split for first and second place by goal difference.

Denmark will qualify if they beat Serbia. If Denmark and Slovenia both draw, they will be level on three points each. Denmark will be unable to reach the round of 16 if they lose and Slovenia avoid defeat.

Slovenia will be through to the round of 16 if they beat England. Slovenia will win the group if they win and Denmark fail to beat Serbia.

Serbia will be through to the round of 16 if they beat Denmark and Slovenia do not beat England. If Serbia draw and Slovenia lose they will be split for third and fourth place by goal difference. Serbia will be out if they lose to Denmark, or if they draw and Slovenia avoid defeat.

Denmark v Serbia (20:00)

Back Danes to do the job and 7/1 OddsBoost

Paul Higham: "If the Danes can put it all together then they'll justify 6/52.20 favouritism and should win this, against a Serbia sides that have been one of the disappointments of the tournament for me so far.

"Just five shots on target in two games and just one goal, a 95th-minute equaliser against Slovenia, is a poor return from a side, and it's why they're 9/43.25 outsiders of the two against a Denmark side they've lost all three games against (8-1 on aggregate).

"Serbia did up their game against Slovenia and with their attacking talent they'll have more than a puncher's chance if they can be more clinical - and given Kasper Hjulmand's side have conceded in both games then both teams to score at 13/20 will be popular.

"I think a desperate Serbian side have enough firepower to get a goal, but I'm backing the Danes to be just a bit more organised and controlled enough to get the win."

Back Hjulmand in boosted 7/1 fouls Acca

Tipman Tips: "This is a huge game in Group C with both Denmark and Serbia in with a chance of qualifying but knowing a win will be needed to guarantee it. The Danes' Hjulmand is an all action midfielder who had a good season in Portugal for Sporting Lisbon, averaging two tackles per game and 1.4 fouls per game. Those are good stats for a player who is in a team that dominate the ball in nearly all of their domestic matches.

"In this tournament, Hjulmand has averaged 1.5 fouls per game. With so much at stake in this match, his role in the heart of the Danish midfield will be vital if they want to progress. This first half fouls treble has been boosted from 11/26.50 to 7/18.00."

England v Slovenia (20:00)

How to back England at 23/1 to beat Slovenia

Paul Higham: "On the basis that Gareth Southgate must surely get a tune out of his talented England squad at some stage, let's back them to get back on track with a solid win to nil against Slovenia.

"England's defence has been their strength so it would just take a bit more production from Southgate's forward line to get the job done - and that includes his big-hitters Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane.

"Kane is 10/111.91 to score anytime and Bellingham 13/102.30 for a goal or assist and that's the best options for those two - who even after a poor last game will surely not get dropped.

"The icing on the cake for this one is throwing in Serbia to get over 2.5 cards which priced at 19/10 is worth a single bet by itself. Both Denmark and Serbia got three cvards against England - and only one team had more cards for their opponents after two games than the Three Lions."

Back Bellingham to draw fouls

Stephen Tudor: "If Jude Bellingham was dropped this Tuesday, mountains would crumble and Rio Ferdinand's apoplectic rant would scare the nation's children through the telly. Thankfully the chances of the Real Madrid megastar taking the hit for England's poor outings lies between nil and zero.

"Where the generational talent plays however is up for debate, with many believing he might revert to a number 6 and if this transpires it will impact on his output in the final third. From his six starts playing more advanced, Bellingham has accrued six goal involvements. That plummets to three in 16 when starting in a deeper role.

"Wherever he is deployed though, the 20-year-old will be a marked man in Cologne for sure. Bellingham has been fouled five times in 176 minutes at the Euros and furthermore, Slovenia aren't shy at the physical stuff. Matjaz Kek's side have fouled every 7.2 minutes so far."

Back Three Lions to grind it out

Paul Higham: "Expect a similar England team apart from in midfield for 4/111.36 big favourites England, who for all their faults have been tight at the back when conceding just that one long-ranger goal against Denmark.

"Allowing just 0.2 and 0.8 xG in their two outings, defence is not the issue for Southgate and although Slovenia have created more in both games than England, they've also allowed more so it's a game the Three Lions should be able to grind out.

"So I wouldn't go backing too many goals here - under 2.5 goals at 20/231.87 is certainly the way I'd go in that market, but I've just got enough faith that Southgate will use that hugely talented squad a bit better here to get the job done."

England to surrender another lead in 18/1 bet

Opta: "England gave up so much territory and pressure after scoring against Denmark, seemed to be in a ploy to lure their opponents out so they could exploit the space behind the opponents' wing-backs. The problem is, if your opponent is wise to that then your pressing - like England's did in Frankfurt - looks stale.

"By the time Morten Hjulmand equalised with an impressive long-range strike for Denmark in the 34th minutes, the Three Lions had managed just four touches in the opposition box.

"What all of that means ahead of England's final group game against Slovenia is that it would be no surprise to see another lead surrendered. Slovenia to win the either half is available at 10/34.33, while the half-time/full-time market looks appealing at 18/119.00 for England/Draw."

Tame Lions to be shown zero cards

Jamie Kemp: "England have been shown just two cards in their last eight group stages matches at major tournaments.

"Gareth Southgate has built a style of football that rarely throws games into chaos and that, added to England having clear superiority over lesser nations at this stage of the tournament, is leading to low card counts. In fact, in six of those eight matches the under 0.5 card line for England backers would have landed. It didn't in their previous clash with Denmark thanks to Conor Gallagher's brainless addiction to fouls but the price that day was 100/304.30, so it certainly suggests the market isn't quite reading this low card angle. We can get 29/10 on it here so the numbers make it a must-back."

Group D Permutations

France will finish top of the gorup if they beat Poland and Netherlands fail to beat Austria. If both France and Netherlands win then they will finish equal on seven points with an identical head-to-head record, so top spot will be decided on goal difference, and if that's equal, then on goals for.

Netherlands will qualify for the round of 16 (in the top two) if they avoid defeat against Austria. Netherlands will win the group if they win and France do not, or if Netherlands draw and France lose.

Austria will go through as winners if they beat the Dutch and France fail to beat Poland. Austria will finish second in the group with a win if France also win, and they will finish third in the group on four points if they draw with Netherlands, regardless of the result between France and Poland.

Poland have lost both their matches so far and will finish fourth.

France v Poland (17:00)

Les Bleus to make statement with big win

James Eastham: "We successfully backed Griezmann to have two or more shots on goal in France's last game vs Austria, and the very fact he had those attempts is encouraging. As manager Deschamps has said, the encouraging thing is that France are creating good scoring chances. The stats bear this out: les Bleus' xG vs Austria was 2.09, and against Netherlands it was 1.33.

Thuram, Griezmann and Dembele may not be the most prolific finishers, but it seems unlikely that France will be as wasteful for a third consecutive game, especially against opponents that have nothing to play for. There's also the prospect of a mask-wearing Kylian Mbappe being called into the action from the bench if needed. He's looked fit and sharp in training ahead of this fixture."

France GK to make 2+ saves

Andy Robson: "After back-to-back losses, Poland now have no chance of knockout qualification, but that does not mean they will roll over when they face France. Robert Lewandowski is set to return to the starting lineup, which immediately improves the likelihood of Poland testing Mike Maignan. The AC Milan keeper made three saves against Austria, and four saves against Netherlands. Interestingly, 50% of the shots conceded by France have resulted in a goalkeeper save.

"As mentioned, Poland were adamant about testing Bart Verbruggen, calling him into action to make six saves. In round two, Austria keeper Patrick Pentz was then forced to make two saves, both of which were relatively simple from longshots. A similar approach from Poland could lead to some easy work for Maignan."

Back 5/1 Mbappe brace on the Betfair Exchange

Jimmy The Punt: "An opposition with nothing to play for, the main man back and three points needed. The 1.3130/100 about a France win is justified but I think backing Mbappe to find the net is the play.

"No, he has not broken his Euros duck yet but he has an international goals per 90 average of 0.70 and has netted 12 goals in 14 World Cup appearances, including a brace when France played Poland in Qatar. Mbappe's price to score anytime 1.910/11 appeals but the 5.85/1 about another brace is the play."

Netherlands v Austria (17:00)

Goals to flow in thriller

James Eastham: "Netherlands showed good spirit and no shortage of attacking skill to come from 1-0 down to win their opening game 2-1 vs Poland. They then fashioned two excellent scoring chances and also had a Xavi Simons goal disallowed in their goalless draw against France.

"Looking at how these two sides have performed in their two games each so far, it's fair to assume they will both create scoring opportunties. The sheer pace of the Austrian attacks and the number of players that push forward when they advance will make them a threat, while the individual quality in the Dutch ranks - Simons, Cody Gakpo, Memphis Depay, and Wout Weghorst off the bench - makes it dificult to see Austria, who have conceded in each of their two games to date, keeping a clean sheet."

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