Netherlands v France: Griezmann to take centre stage amid Mbappe injury concerns

• Potential decider to win Group D

• New-look attack may take shape for les Bleus

• Atletico Madrid star the smart selection

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Netherlands vs France
Friday 21 June, 20:00
Live on BBC1

Mbappe broken nose switches the focus

France may take to the field without Kylian Mbappe on Friday night, and the star striker's possible absence could be the biggest factor on the match. Manager Didier Deschamps may be forced to reshape les Bleus' attack and there are several knock-on consequences for bettors to take into account.

The broken nose that may keep Mbappe out of this match (although he has trained in a face mask the night before the game and hopes to be available) means a handful of markets that would lack appeal were the Real Madrid-bound superstar on the pitch suddenly become interesting.

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Back Griezmann to shine

Many of these markets concern Antoine Griezmann. The Euro 2016 top scorer was already a key man for France, but would take on greater importance were Mbappe sidelined.

The first thing to note is that, if Mbappe were ruled out, Griezmann would become France's penalty taker. In one fell swoop, this change of status would increase his chance of having shots on goal, shots on target, and also scoring his first goal of the competition.

The second thing to note is that Mbappe's absence would create more space in the final third. The other France attackers would step up and take more responsibility in front of goal, and Griezmann would be central to that. Without needing to focus on providing chances for Mbappe, he would be more inclined to try to find the net himself.

Should Mbappe be ruled out or start on the bench, we expect Griezmann to get better scoring opportunities than he did in France's opener vs Austria (he managed two off-target attempts in that game). He's 16/54.20 to score, 1/12.00 to have one or more shots on target, and 10/111.91 to match his output in the first game by having two or more shots on goal. The one shot on target and two or more shots on goal options appeal to us. We suggest picking one of the two as your main selection on the game.

Gakpo a marked man

Almost as appealing as Griezmann is Cody Gakpo in the shots markets. He was Netherlands' 'shot monster' in their opening game vs Poland, topping their shots list with five attempts on goal (two on target).

Gakpo should pose a threat again here but we expect France to deal with him more effectively than Poland did. If, as expected, the Liverpool man starts on the left wing again, his direct opponent will be Jules Kounde, and the Barcelona defender produced arguably his best-ever performance for France in their opener vs Austria. His defensive anticipation, defensive tenacity and the intensity of his sprints were all better than we've seen before.

France's right-sided centre-back Dayot Upamecano should also provide better secondary cover than Poland did when Gakpo moves inside to get sight of goal. Gakpo's odds of 4/71.57 to have two or more shots on goal will appeal to many given his output on matchday one. France's superior defensive strength puts us off, however, especially as he's a considerably shorter price than Griezmann in the same market.

Swerve the main markets

On the popular markets, France are 2.47/5 to win, while Netherlands are 3.412/5 and the Draw is 3.45. These prices look about right so we're happy to avoid. The same applies to the main goals markets: Under 2.5 Goals is 1.9110/11 while Over 2.5 Goals is 2.0811/10. Owing to the uncertainty over how many goals France will score without Mbappe, we prefer to leave this market alone, too.

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