Glenrothes By-Election Odds: Brown's mini-bounce can save another humiliation

UK Politics / Paul Krishnamurty / 23 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

The once unthinkable is now a real possibility: Labour could lose Glenrothes to the SNP. With the 'Brown Bounce' in full flow, however, Labour have to be the bet, says Paul Krishnamurty...

Until just a few weeks ago, before the global economy descended into turmoil, the forthcoming Glenrothes by-election was being widely tipped as the last act of Gordon Brown's crisis-ridden spell as PM. His party were in open revolt and all the talk was of a potential autumn leadership contest. Grave concern amongst Labour MPs had turned to outright panic after the party suffered arguably the worst result in its history when losing the Glasgow-East by-election.

Glasgow-East was their 25th safest seat, with the SNP overturning a 13,500 majority. The natural assumption to make from that result was that, in comparison, the Nationalists should have little trouble taking Glenrothes, Labour's 102nd seat where their majority was nearly 3,000 smaller. Such calculations have doubtless informed the early trading in this market, with the SNP trading down to [1.32] before settling around the current odds of [1.5].

However, relying on such simplistic comparisons could prove dangerous, as the circumstances here are markedly different in a variety of ways. Firstly, the national political narrative has changed since the summer. Brown and Labour are still in a deep hole, but the economic crisis has so far worked to his political advantage and he was deemed to have a good party conference.

Sadly lacking in the charisma stakes, Brown's only hope was to brand himself as a rock of experience and stability in troubled times. The economic crisis has enabled him to do just that, a point reflected in improving poll fortunes. A YouGov/Channel 4 poll of 60 marginal seats released yesterday shows that Labour have reduced their deficit behind the Tories from 13% to 5% in the last month.

Now I have very strong doubts this trend will persist through a recession, and tend to buy into the theory that this is little more than a 'Dead Cat Bounce'. But in terms of the next fortnight, Labour are undoubtably in a stronger poll position than they were at the time of the Glasgow-East defeat.

Specifically in Scotland, the economic crisis may also have dented the SNP's credibility. Alex Salmond's rationale for Scottish independence was that, freed from the rest of the UK, Scotland would join an 'arc of prosperity' of small, Northern European states such as Iceland, Eire and Norway. After the collapse of Icelandic banks, and the part-nationalisation of RBS and Bank of Scotland by the Treasury in London, the defining plank of SNP policy is being portrayed by opponents as a liability.

This may only have a small effect, but any swing would be critical in what looks certain to be a close contest. In order to overturn this huge majority, (Labour obtained over 50% here in 2005 despite a declining vote-share), the SNP will need to maximise every potential anti-Labour tactical vote. Its a strategy they utilised successfully to win the last Scottish Parliament elections, and tactical anti-Labour voting again proved decisive in Glasgow-East.

Glenrothes, though, is a different type of seat. Whereas Glasgow-East was an extremely deprived inner-city constituency, the type of area where the SNP had threatened Labour in the past, Glenrothes is a 'new town'. Its actually a new consistency, primarily made up of the old Fife Central, along with a small number from Kirkcaldy and Gordon Brown's own seat of Dunfermline East. In fact, the Labour candidate is the former headmaster of Brown's old school, and is a well-known face in the area. It would be no surprise to see a small local effect in favour of Brown, especially if the media turn this into a referendum on his future.

Furthermore, the great unknown in this constituency is how the Lib Dems will perform. Their vote completely collapsed in Glasgow-East, with previous supporters presumably jumping behind the SNP to defeat Labour. A similar outcome could hand the SNP up to 3,000 extra votes in Glenrothes, but this is far from certain.

The key when assessing the Lib Dems is the strength of their activist base in the area concerned. In many parts of the country, (Glasgow is very much one of them), their party organisation is tiny. Fife is a very different story, as they have strong council representation in neighbouring constituencies. They may well retain a hardcore of support, even if their vote share will almost certainly decline.

Remember, in anything approaching normal circumstances, a Labour defeat in this constituency would have been unthinkable. They have won every election here overwhelmingly since the seat was created in 1974. Perhaps they would have lost if this by-election had been held a few months ago. But given the quite different circumstances here, and the mountain the SNP need to climb in order to overhaul that thumping majority, Labour have to be the bet at around [2.9].