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UK General Election Constituency Betting: Ten targets that would propel SNP to 2015 heights

Paul Krishnamurty
04 December 2019

SNP are battling Tories in numerous pro-Union seats

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The SNP won 56 seats at their peak in 2015. Based on their target list, gaining these ten could take them up to 55 from their current 35....

"Given that 50% voted for Leave in the referendum here, much higher than the Scottish average, Douglas Ross will be confident of another term with the Tory vote holding up well in polls."

Ochil and South Perthshire

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This is another constituency that voted for different parties in the last three general elections - the Tories came from third last time, aided by the Labour vote falling 8%. This share probably correlates with Unionist fears of independence and a 40% Leave vote. The required 3% swing is within SNP range on national estimates but much depends on the priorities and tactics of Labour's remaining 20% share.

Angus

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Angus was an SNP-CON marginal even in the days when Labour dominated Scotland but it took the recent constitutional earthquakes to finally turn it blue in 2017. The 16% swing surely owed much to Brexit - the 48% Leave vote is well above the Scottish average. That suggests regaining it on a 3.5 swing will be tough but the SNP hold both Holyrood seats and achieved 54% in 2015.

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

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The second largest constituency in the country has a long Liberal tradition, only ever switching once to the SNP at their 2015 peak. This is one of Scotland's few Leave seats but Brexit didn't appear particularly influential in 2017 as the Tories only scored 22%, albeit from a very low base. Any boost from having a Scot as Lib Dem leader should be enough to retain it.

Moray

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This was a stunning gain for the Tories last time, deposing the SNP's leader in Westminster Angus Robertson. Given that 50% voted for Leave in the referendum here, much higher than the Scottish average, Douglas Ross will be confident of another term with the Tory vote holding up well in polls.

East Renfrewshire

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Yet another seat that voted Labour in 2010, SNP in 2015 and Conservative in 2017, with Paul Masterson winning from third place on a 14% swing. Results in the referendum were both extremely Remain (75%) and Unionist (63%). Very hard to call, with the balance of power lying among Labour's declining 27% share.

Banff and Buchan

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A 20% swing last time took this from SNP hands for the first time since 1983. Brexit was evidently a major factor in a 61% Leave constituency which contrasts the Scottish norm and that will make it much harder to regain. National swing projects a tight race but its doubtful the same numbers apply here.

Dunbartonshire East

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This is being hyped as a potential shocker with the SNP ejecting Jo Swinson, but it isn't an obvious gain. East Dunbartonshire is both strongly Remain (73%) and Unionist (61%). Fertile territory, therefore, for the Lib Dems, who are faring better in Scotland than 2017. Plus party leaders invariably get a boost in their own constituency.

Jo Swinson boxing gloves 1280.jpg

Aberdeen South

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Having failed to unseat the SNP in the 2016 Scottish Parliament elections, Ross Thomson did so for Westminster on a stunning 15% swing. Labour voters seemed to transfer to the Tories in large numbers, presumably with the Union a key factor. Considering the SNP only earned 42% here at their peak it could be hard to regain, although this a 67% Remain seat.

Dumfries and Galloway

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The Tories were often tipped to win this borders seat even during the New Labour years but only did so in 2017. Again opposition to another referendum seems the key to explaining the transfer from LAB-CON. This seat is heavily Unionist (66%) and at 55/45, less Remain than most Scottish constituencies. Expect the Tories to hold it.

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

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Andrew Bowie stormed to victory on 48% in 2017, after a 14% swing that appears driven by defection from Lib Dem to the Tories. Again, opposition to independence probably explains it. This is now a two-horse race with limited votes to squeeze so, with the Tory vote holding up in Scotland, probably a comfortable hold.

For more tips and insight on the Election, check out the Politics...Only Bettor podcast, where Paul joins Betfair trader Joe Lee and The Sun on Sunday's political correspondent Ryan Sabey to discuss all the latest from the campaign trail and the Betfair markets

Follow Paul on Twitter and check out his website, Political Gambler.

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Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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UK General Election Constituency Betting: Ten targets that would propel SNP to 2015 heights

Ochil and South Perthshire

Angus

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

Moray

East Renfrewshire

Banff and Buchan

Dunbartonshire East

Aberdeen South

Dumfries and Galloway

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

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Ochil and South Perthshire

Angus

Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

Moray

East Renfrewshire

Banff and Buchan

Dunbartonshire East

Aberdeen South

Dumfries and Galloway

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

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