Croatia v Ghana: Back a big 9/1 Bet Builder with focus on fouls in Philadelphia

Back 12/53.40 savvy Croats to sneak victory

Click here for Croatia v Ghana odds
Saturday 27 June, 22:00 kick-off
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Live on ITV4 & ITVX

It's a crucial game in Group L with second place on the line, as you'd expect England to beat Panama in the other game being played at the same time.

Ghana's draw with the Three Lions effectively booked a last 32 spot, but they can go guarantee second spot with another draw here against the 2018 World Cup runners-up and third-placed side in 2022.

The draw, which would do both sides really, is 9/43.25 while Ghana are the 9/25.50 match underdogs here.

It's a bit more tricky for 3/41.75 favourites Croatia if the game's level for a long time - obviously a win will take care of all that a put them through in second at least, and a draw will likely be enough.

That opening 4-2 defeat against England seems a long time ago now as as there's been just two other goals scored in the entire group - with both Ghana and Croatia grinding out 1-0 wins over Panama, so it's hard to see a goalfest here.

It'll be more of the same from Carlos Queiroz with Ghana soaking up the Croatia pressure at hitting on the break - but showing signs o being pretty dangerous on the counter will provoke caution from the Croats.

Both teams not to score is 3/41.75 and under 2.5 goals is 4/71.57 and that's pretty much how this game should go - seven of Ghana's last nine have had under 2.5 goals and they've failed to score in the first half in nine straight.

The half-time draw at 11/102.11 seems assured to me, it's just whether Croatia will grind Ghana down and produce on moment of quality to pinch it, or the Africans use their pace and power to snatch one on the break.

Croatia have never lost to a side below 40th in the FIFA rankings at a World Cup in six matches, they've got the need and crucially the tournament nous to get what they want usually when they need it - so we'll back them to pinch it.

Focus on fouls in 9/110.00 Bet Builder treble

Andre Kramaric is 15/82.88 and Ante Budimir 9/52.80 as the leading anytime goalscorer prospects for Croatia, with Peter Musa also worthy of attention at 9/52.80.

Antoine Semenyo is the most likely for Ghana according to the odds with the Man City man 10/34.33 anytime goalscorer although Inaki Williams at 4/15.00 could be a lively shout.

But we're not expecting too many goals and Ghana have only mustered three shots on target in two games, so there may not be much to go around on that front.

Croatia have had seven and Marco Pasalic is the only man from either squad to have had more than one shot on target in the tournament so far, and he's only got two! He does have one in each game though and he's 8/131.61 to have a shot on target here.

Semenyo is 5/61.84 to hit the target and it's hard to believe he'll go three straight games without testing the keeper.

Ghana have given away plenty of fouls though so perhaps the best route to profit here is in the referee being busy - starting with ever reliable Jordan Ayew to give away 3+ fouls at 9/52.80 and Antoine Semenyo to commit 2+ fouls at 8/131.61.

They press from the front and these two put their foot in - Semenyo has given five fouls away with three coming against England while Ayew has six, four agains England, which is a decent form line for this game given how Croatia can dominate the ball.

And on the opposite side, Josep Stanisic has been fouled five times in two games playing on the right side of the defence and midfield - Ghana will look to cut off progression out wide so 13/53.60 on him to be fouled 2+times again looks good value.

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