Burnley v Leicester: Clarets to keep their noses in front in race for seventh

Leicester City manager Claude Puel
Can Leicester put a run together and overhaul Burnley for seventh?
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Turf Moor is the scene of the latest battle for Europa League football next season as Burnley host Leicester and Paul Robinson is predicting a close-fought encounter.

"Their overall record away from home this term is five wins, five draws and six losses and Burnley’s record at home is six wins, four draws and five defeats."

Back The Draw @ [3.2]

Burnley v Leicester
Saturday 14 April, 15:00 GMT

Burnley closing in on unlikely European adventure

The Clarets are winning the race to finish in seventh place and although they are unlikely to catch Arsenal in sixth, to finish in seventh would exceed all expectations. It would also mean European football - assuming that Southampton do now win the FA Cup.

A run of four consecutive victories has put them back on track following a spell of 12 without a win in all competitions and they now have a six point advantage over Leicester behind them, with only half a dozen fixtures to go.

One of the most impressive things about their recent winning streak is that three of the four matches were away from home. They now have back to back fixtures at Turf Moor, and although they won't have it easy against Leicester and then Chelsea, it's hard to argue with their form.

As for the teams news, Ben Mee is likely out for the rest of the season, but Johann Berg Gudmundsson could return after six weeks out with a calf injury.

Foxes need to put Newcastle defeat behind them

Leicester's hopes of European football suffered a big setback last weekend as they were beaten at the King Power by Newcastle. They had kept themselves in the race for seventh by winning at West Brom and Brighton, but dropping three points at home to a team who are battling relegation is far from ideal.

As mentioned above, Claude Puel's men are now six points behind Burnley, so they really could do with beating them here if they are to have any chance of overhauling them - although you could argue that the Foxes have the marginally easier run-in.

Vicente Iborra is a doubt for this clash after he limped off against the Magpies last week and Wilfred Ndidi remains suspended. There are no issues with Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez though and they are the key to Leicester's success.

Sitting on the fence to prove profitable

The hosts are the favourites for this match but there really isn't much in it. They are trading at around the [2.7] mark, with an away win priced up at [3.05] and the draw the outsider at [3.2].

The latter is what appeals to me on this occasion as it's a result that would certainly suit Burnley. They have proved very resilient this season, losing just nine of their 32 games to date, and with 28 goals conceded, only Spurs and the two Manchester clubs have a better defensive record.

Leicester need to raise their game following last week's defeat but they will be buoyed by the fact that they have won two on the bounce away from the King Power. That being said, prior to the victories at the Hawthorns and the Amex, they had taken just one point from a possible 15 on their travels.

Their overall record away from home this term is five wins, five draws and six losses and Burnley's record at home is six wins, four draws and five defeats. Those are pretty equal records and with the draw being the biggest price of the three possible outcomes, I have to make it the value selection.

Mixed messages from the goal stats

When it comes to goals, I have already touched on Burnley's defensive record this season and as they have only outscored five other teams, it should come as no surprise that their matches are averaging a mere 1.84 goals each time - the lowest in the entire division.

Unfortunately the odds on offer for Under 2.5 are as short as [1.65], so I don't have much interest in backing it outright. It's also worth noting that three of their last six at home have actually gone Over 2.5, and the same can be said for seven of Leicester's last nine away from the KP.

If those kind of stats tickle your fancy then Overs can be backed at [2.48], but I have my suspicions that Sean Dyche is going to play not to lose this game as opposed to winning it.

Back a Correct Score at a bigger price

The Correct Score market affords us an opportunity to combine what we believe the match result and the number of goals will be. I'm firmly of the belief that there isn't much between these two teams and although I doubt that we will see many goals, I can definitely see the pair of them getting on the scoresheet.

That all adds up to a 1-1 Correct Score at odds of [7.0]. That has been the outcome of three of Leicester's last seven matches and two of Burnley's last three in front of their own fans.

Opta also backs up the notion of Burnley conceding as after keeping clean sheets in six of their opening nine Premier League home games this season, and conceding just three goals, Sean Dyche's side have conceded in each of their last six at Turf Moor (nine goals in total).

Ref Watch

Martin Atkinson is the official who has been appointed for this fixture and it will be his 30th game of the season as ref. In his previous 29 he has brandished 103 yellows and five reds. His most recent outing was the Manchester Derby and he was kept busy by booking nine players, but that was only the ninth time that he has shown five or more cards in a match.


For individual match previews of every single Premier League game visit our dedicated Premier League section here on Betting.Betfair.

For tips on the other Saturday 3pm Premier League fixtures, including this one, then check out Mike Norman's tipsheet here.

2017/18 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 59pts
Returned: 66.99pts
P/L: +7.99pts

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