Jones Knows Notebook: Manchester United risk repeating old mistakes by hiring Michael Carrick

It's Michael Carrick to Manchester United permanently then.

The romance is obvious. The reality is much murkier.

For a club desperately searching for stability, handing the keys to a former player with strong emotional ties to Old Trafford feels like a move driven as much by nostalgia as cold analysis.

United find themselves in a familiar scenario as they weigh up appointing Carrick as head coach long-term, with eerie similarities to the route Ole Gunnar Solskjaer took to getting the job full-time. Are they making the same mistake again?

It's a narrative that is difficult to silence, yet they have been installed as 13/27.50 fourth favourites to win next season's Premier League title.

The results say yes - the data says no

When you dig into the numbers behind Carrick's interim spell, there are enough warning signs flashing to make any punter think twice before buying into the hype.

Results? Excellent. Process? Far less convincing.

Carrick has won 10 of his 15 Premier League games in charge this season, collecting 33 points from a possible 45. Only Manchester City have earned more points in that period and no side has won more matches.

Those numbers scream progress.

But dig deeper and it becomes much harder to argue Manchester United are building anything sustainable.

The most revealing metric is expected goals supremacy - the difference between xG created and xG conceded.

Under Carrick, United are operating at just +0.1 xG per 90 minutes. That's virtually identical to Ruben Amorim's reign before him, suggesting very little has fundamentally changed in terms of overall performance level.

In simple terms, United are still playing coin-flip football but they are coming out on top of those fine margins.

And the recent trend is even more concerning.

Across the last eight Premier League matches, only already-relegated Wolves and Burnley own a worse xG supremacy figure than Manchester United at -0.3 per 90. That's a massive red flag for a team supposedly moving in the right direction.

And, the defensive process is especially alarming.

Only Burnley have allowed opponents more touches inside their own penalty area than United's 239 across those eight matches.

United have also lost the xG battle in eight of their last 13 Premier League matches. Historically, teams consistently losing the underlying numbers war eventually see results regress hard in the opposite direction.

That's the key concern with Carrick.

Are United being blinded by short-term results?

At the moment, United are surviving on efficiency, moments and fine margins rather than dominance. Those ingredients can fuel short-term runs but are notoriously unreliable over a 38-game season, especially when expectation levels will be high across a much more demanding schedule next season that will include Champions League football.

There's no doubt Carrick deserves credit for steadying the ship. The dressing room clearly responds to him, the atmosphere has improved and results matter in football more than analysts and data-obsessed punters like me sometimes care to admit.

Is appointing Carrick permanently a feel-good story? Absolutely.

Is it also one of the biggest gambles Manchester United have taken in years? Without question.

To Win the 2026/27 Premier League:

- Arsenal 6/42.50
- Manchester City 5/23.50
- Liverpool 6/17.00
- Manchester United 13/27.50
- Chelsea 11/112.00
- Aston Villa 28/129.00
- Newcastle 40/141.00
- Tottenham 50/151.00
- BAR 150/1151.00

Now read more Premier League tips and previews here.