Jones Knows Notebook: A 100/1 goalscorer treble on Premier League final day

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Premier League final day delivers goals

If there's one day of the Premier League season to aim for a huge odds goalscorer bet, it's the final day.

Teams chasing Europe throw bodies forward, relegation-threatened sides abandon structure and those with nothing to lose suddenly start playing like Kevin Keegan's Newcastle.

The numbers back it up, too.

Across the last 10 Premier League final matchdays, games have averaged a huge 3.36 goals per game. Even the shot data spikes dramatically, increasing by 2.2 shots per match compared to the standard seasonal average.

So, rather than playing it safe, this is the moment to attack a monster-priced goalscorer treble and try to land something memorable to end the season on a high.

Bet #1 - Junior Kroupi to score first 9/25.50

Click here for full Nottingham Forest v Bournemouth odds
Sunday, 16:00
Live on Sky Sports+

When thinking about betting on Bournemouth, it's impossible not to focus on Junior Kroupi.

At [9/2] to fire first, the price looks generous considering the level he's operating at right now. His winner against Arsenal wasn't just another goal - it underlined what an extraordinary debut Premier League season he's producing.

Thirteen league goals as a teenager is remarkable company to keep. In fact, only Lamine Yamal has scored more goals as a teenager across Europe's major leagues this season. That tells you everything about the scale of Kroupi's emergence.

Bet #2 - Jack Hinshelwood to score @ 11/43.75

Click here for full Brighton v Manchester United odds
Sunday, 16:00
Live on Sky Sports Tennis

This should be a goal heavy game as Brighton need to win and hope that Bournemouth lose to Nottingham Forest, Aston Villa lose at Man City and Liverpool beat Brentford to have a chance of qualifying in sixth for the Champions League.

Jack Hinshelwood is exactly the type of player worth targeting in final day goalscorer markets because his role is far more attacking than the markets realise.

On paper he's listed as a midfielder. In reality, his positioning often resembles a second striker when Brighton build sustained attacks.

That tactical freedom is showing up strongly in the underlying data, too.

Since January, no Premier League midfielder has posted a higher expected goals figure than Hinshelwood's outstanding 4.25 xG return. it speaks volumes about the quality of chances he's getting on a consistent basis.

He's now scored three goals across his last four appearances and looks completely comfortable attacking penalty box spaces.

Bet #3 - Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall to score @ 4/15.00

Click here for full Spurs v Everton odds
Sunday, 16:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall looks overpriced at 4/15.00 to score against Tottenham considering the role he's carved out for himself in this Everton side.

He's become their most efficient goal threat.

His return of eight Premier League goals this season is impressive enough on its own but the really eye-catching number is his scoring ratio. Dewsbury-Hall is averaging 0.28 goals per 90 minutes - the best return of any Everton player.

Spurs are likely to play nervously knowing survival is on the line, while Everton can approach the game with freedom and aggression under David Moyes.

Read Dave Tindall's Spurs v Everton match preview with a 13/114.00 tip here

Now read Opta-powered Premier League final day tipsheet