UEFA Europa Conference League

Club Brugge v Fiorentina: Back Viola to reach final at 7/5

Fiorentina fans
Will Fiorentina fans be celebrating after their Europa Conference League semi-final against Club Brugge?

Dan Fitch thinks that Fiorentina will get through a tricky second-leg of their Europa Conference League semi-final against in-form Club Brugge.

Club Brugge v Fiorentina
Thursday 9 May, 17:45
Live on TNT Sports

Club Brugge may have lost the first-leg of this Europa Conference League semi-final with Fiorentina, but they did enough to still be in this tie.

Despite the Viola dominating the proceedings with 56% of the possession and 31 shots on goal to Brugge's five, the Serie A club could only win 3-2. The Belgians twice fought back after going behind and only conceded the decisive goal in added time at the end of the match, having been reduced to ten men for the last half-hour.

Raphael Onyedika was the man sent off and will miss this match through suspension. Goalkeeper Nordin Jackers and left-back Bjorn Meijer are doubts with fitness issues.

Club Brugge bounced back with a 2-1 win at Antwerp to go top of the First Division A. The loss to Fiorentina was their first defeat under their caretaker manager Nicky Hayen (P10 W8 D1) and they are 6/42.50 to win this return leg and 12/53.40 to qualify.

Fiorentina really should have made more of their dominance in the first-leg and now have a nervous night in Belgium to contend with.

Riccardo Sottil got them off to a perfect start with a stunning goal. Though further strikes from Andrea Belotti and M'Bala Nzola secured the win, it should have been by a healthier margin, especially against ten-men.

Sottil would go off in the second-half with a broken collarbone and will now miss the return leg. Gaetano Castrovilli replaced him on the left-wing in the 2-1 loss at Verona over the weekend, but as he has not been named in Vincenzo Italiano's Europa Conference League squad, either Christian Kouame or Jonathan Ikone should start in Brugge.

The defeat to Verona leaves Fiorentina in ninth place in Serie A. They would need to finish eighth to qualify for next season's Conference League, while winning this competition looks the most achievable route into the Europa League. They are rated at 3/14.00 to qualify for the final, with an away win at 9/52.80 and the draw at 23/103.30 in the match odds market.

Fiorentina can make final but will concede

Brugge have won each of their last six home games, scoring 17 times and conceding just twice during that run.

That will make daunting reading for a Fiorentina side that have only won two of their last twelve games on the road (D3 L7). That said, they are unbeaten in their last five away matches in the Europa Conference League (W2 D3), which would be enough to send them through to the final.

Given how the first game went, combining both teams to score with Fiorentina double chance at 7/52.40 is a much smarter bet than backing the visitors in the To Qualify market, or putting your faith in a specific result.

Back Fiorentina double chance against Club Brugge and both teams to score at 7/52.40

Bet here

If you'd rather avoid the result, over 2.5 goals seems too big at 9/10 considering that the first match produced five. Combine with both teams to score and the odds rise to 11/102.11, while over 3.5 goals is priced at 5/23.50.

There could be value in the odds of a couple of Brugge's sharpshooters. Thiago scored his 26th goal of the season in the first-leg and is 2/13.00 to add to his tally. Meanwhile, Andreas Skov Olsen scored his 23rd goal in the win against Antwerp and is out at 7/24.50 to find the net.

Back Thiago to score for Club Brugge against Fiorentina at 2/13.00

Bet here

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