Legia Warsaw v Chelsea Conference League Tips: High shot-count for visitors backed at 9/4

• Cagey first half tempts at 23/103.30

• Palmer's return to form to count

• Cards in short supply for Blues

It would have been a seismic shock had Chelsea failed to reach the latter stages of this tournament. The disparity in quality between themselves and the rest of the field - bar the odd notable exception - is too great and not for nothing are the Blues 8/151.53 favourites to lift the trophy in May.

Like Copenhagen, Chelsea's opponents in the previous round, the Legionaries are a level below Enzo Maresca's superstars, but only that. Subsequently, a tight, hard-attained victory in this first-leg away tie - as we saw in Denmark - would not surprise, while a draw would still be a very decent result.

Legia have only lost at home three times all season across all comps.

With the visitor's injury concerns easing however - and Cole Palmer beginning to shake off his recent funk - we go back to that disparity, one that's too glaring to ignore.

Warsaw packed

Under Goncalo Feio, the Polish side typically set up as a 4-3-3 but they're not averse to switching to three at the back, pushing former Wolves man Ruben Vinagre and Polish international Pawel Wszolek up as wing-backs.

Don't expect the pair to be overly adventurous early on though. In the opening exchanges at least tonight, expect the hosts to remain compact, seeking to block off passing lanes and restrict Chelsea to shots from range.

Should they be successful in this aim, no doubt confidence will grow and risks may be taken and unquestionably Legia have goals in their armoury.

Though fifth in the Ekstraklasa no team have outscored them 27 games in while Marc Gual boasts seven goals in this competition to date.

As a caveat, three came against Welsh side Caernarfon Town in the qualifiers.

Palmer shots fancied at 6/52.20

To add to the narrative of a goalless first half we saw the same scenario play out in Copenhagen where Chelsea failed to create a single big chance despite having 66% of the possession.

The Blues did not have an attempt on goal between the 14th and 44th minute.

The deadlock was broken almost immediately after the break, courtesy of a fine strike by Reece James.

Back then, Cole Palmer was distinctly out-of-sorts while Chelsea's attack was missing Nicolas Jackson, Noni Madueke and Marc Guiu, the latter notching six in the Conference League this term.

With all three available at the Stadion Wojska Polskiego this evening, and Palmer in recovery-mode Chelsea are in stronger shape now to a month ago.

The 22-year-old epitomizes this best, putting in a Player of the Match performance at home to Spurs last Thursday and assisting for good measure.

Throughout his sustained dip in form, Palmer managed to maintain a healthy shot-count. Indeed, he has only failed to post a shot on target on three occasions in his last 21 outings, six times racking up three-plus.

Legia peppered

Broadening this out to the team as a whole we find high shot-counts in plentiful supply across Chelsea's campaign.

Last time out, away to Brentford, they accrued 21 attempts, all to no avail, while in recent consecutive home fixtures they posted 20 vs Leicester and 19 against Southampton.

Enzo Maresca's pragmatic approach may not be overly pretty on the eye but it often gets his players in sight of goal.

Away to Copenhagen in the previous round only five shots were fired but this seems to be an outlier in the Conference League.

Elsewhere, Chelsea have averaged 21 per 90 with an impressive 50% of them hitting the target.

Continental saints

A fractious affair in Heidenheim last November led to Chelsea having a man dismissed and pick up three cautions to boot.

That game aside though, the Blues discipline has been commendable in the Conference League with just 0.7 yellow cards per 90.

It's a record that contrasts wholly to their league etiquette - what with Chelsea being rock bottom of the fair play table - and of course it's a big factor that in Europe they have been the superior side for the most part, ergo having the bulk of the possession.

Still, if the match plays out as expected tonight, we all know which side will be putting in the most challenges.

Now read Jack Critchley's Saturday Championship preview here