Jones Knows Notebook: Arsenal have a priceless edge in Champions League final

Listen to Football...Only Bettor Champions League final preview

Psychological twist brings betting value to Champions League final

The psychology heading into the Champions League final has not been factored into the odds.

Arsenal are 11/102.11 on the Betfair Sportsbook to win Saturday's final - whether in 90 minutes, after extra-time or on penalties - to complete a Premier and Champions League double. PSG are 8/111.73 favourites to lift the trophy for the second time in a row.

After lifting the Premier League trophy, I was expecting the market to move more favourably towards Arsenal - but it's not shifted at all.

Arsenal have carried the burden of being nearly-men. Questions over mentality. The fear of blowing the big moment hanging over every match of consequence.

But winning the Premier League changes absolutely everything.

That monkey is off their back now. The emotional release of finally getting over the line matters. You could see it in the celebrations, in the body language of a squad suddenly liberated from the fear of failure.

This final is now framed as an opportunity rather than an obligation. Winning the Champions League and completing the double would elevate this season into legendary territory - but if they fall short, they are still Premier League champions. History has already been written.

Arsenal are chasing a bonus prize. That makes them a dangerous beast.

Time to take a profit from any PSG bets

Tipping Arsenal to beat PSG in the Champions League final was not the position I expected to take. All season I've been very negative about Arsenal who have been making the market as false favourites.

And those that have followed the ante-post advice through the season will already be sitting on a very healthy PSG bet at 7/18.00 as we look to follow up our 18/119.00 winning PSG selection from last season.

But this is where betting discipline comes in.

If you're holding PSG at 7/18.00, now is the time to guarantee profit by backing Arsenal outright. There's no need to get greedy in these situations. Smart ante-post betting is about creating value positions and then maximising them when the market gives you the opportunity.

And the market should have Arsenal closer to favourtism in my opinion. So it's time to lock in that profit.

Arsenal have what it takes to win the final

This is a brutal stylistic clash for PSG. Arsenal are stronger defensively, more dangerous from set plays and tactically equipped to suffocate the spaces PSG need to flourish.

The biggest edge for Arsenal comes from their ability to kill momentum. Few teams in Europe are better without the ball. Mikel Arteta's side defend in waves, they foul intelligently when required and they are masters at turning emotionally chaotic matches into sterile tactical battles.

No longer labelled nearly men, the Premier League champions now head into the Champions League final carrying momentum instead of pressure.

They are the bet to win it.

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