Coventry v Newcastle: Back hosts to rack up the shots against injury-hit Magpies

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Monday, 20:00
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Coventry looking to build on first win

Coventry host Newcastle on the Monday Night Football in what should be a terrific atmosphere under the CBS Arena lights, which will undoubtedly give the Sky Blues a huge boost as they seek to win their first Premier League home game for more than 25 years.

Frank Lampard's men head into the game on the back of a surprise, but morale-boosting, first league win of the season at Nottingham Forest just before the international break, but they'll be desperate to end a run of three consecutive defeats (all competitions) in front of their own fans.

Last season's Championship winners are yet to score a league goal at the CBS Arena this season and have managed just one goal in their five Premier League games to date, though it's encouraging that they recorded 29 shots (10 on target) in recent home defeats to Brighton and Aston Villa respectively.

Newcastle still searching for their identity

Newcastle have made a reasonable start to the campaign without being spectacular, though I'm still not convinced they've found their feet under new boss Matthias Jaissle.

They were completely outplayed in their last away game at Leeds, suffering a heavy defeat, before making hard work of beating Hull 2-1 at St James' Park. Their results have been decent enough, especially in the first few weeks, but the performances suggest there's still work to do.

The statistics make interesting reading, too. Heading into Matchday 6, Newcastle had faced 97 shots, more than any other Premier League side, while only Aston Villa (48) had attempted fewer shots than the Magpies' 51.

The encouraging aspect is that from those 51 shots Newcastle have scored nine goals, but for a club with aspirations of finishing in the top half of the table, you'd want them to start creating more opportunities while limiting those they're allowing opponents at the other end.

Coventry worth backing at 23/103.30

At the time of writing, in the Betfair Sportsbook Match Odds market, Newcastle are the 6/52.20 favourites to win the game with Coventry available to back at 23/103.30 and the Draw at 5/23.50.

At those prices, I find it hard to have any confidence siding with Newcastle given their last performance on the road, and I'm fully expecting them to be without quite a lot of players on Monday night.

The Magpies had a plethora of injuries before the international break, with star man Anthony Elanga among those sidelined. In his pre-match news conference, Jaissle was very tight-lipped when asked for an injury update, simply saying that he hoped to have three or four players back for the Coventry game without naming names.

Of those three or four players he's hoping to welcome back, we expect Dan Burn and Joelinton to return to the squad, though not necessarily start, while Nico Gonzalez is expected to be available after completing concussion protocol.

That would potentially mean continued absences for Elanga, defenders Tino Livramento and Amar Dedic, midfielder Jacob Ramsey and striker William Osula, so Newcastle's starting XI shouldn't look too dissimilar to the one that struggled against Hull and was thrashed at Leeds.

Coventry have injury concerns of their own of course, while striker Taiwo Awoniyi remains suspended, but none of their absentees featured in the win at Forest so Lampard should be able to name a similar starting XI on Monday night.

With confidence boosted by that first victory and a vibrant home crowd behind them, the Sky Blues look capable of recording another three points.

Hosts can fire in the shots

My main bet for Monday night is Coventry to have 16 or more shots at 7/42.75, and there are several reasons to like the price.

Newcastle have conceded more shots than any other Premier League side this season, just shy of 20 on average per game, and they were particularly vulnerable in their last outing, allowing newly promoted Hull to register 22 attempts at St James' Park.

If the Magpies give Coventry similar opportunities, the Sky Blues should have a good chance of reaching our target.

The visitors' injury problems could also play a part. The likely continued absences of both Newcastle's recognised right-backs (Dedic and Livramento) could leave them vulnerable, and with the home crowd behind them, Coventry should be encouraged to attack.

Lampard's men have also shown they can generate plenty of attempts at the CBS Arena. They registered 15 shots in their last home game against Brighton despite playing around 40 minutes with 10 men.

If they can approach that level of attacking output against a Newcastle side that has been allowing opponents so many opportunities, 16 or more shots looks an attractive bet at 7/42.75.

Mike's 7/18.00 Coventry v Newcastle double

Do you like what Mike has said? Do you fancy his two selections? If so then how about combining them in a Sportsbook double that pays out at just shy of 7/18.00.

Click on the odds in the below Bet Banner to go directly to a pre-loaded Betslip.

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