Aston Villa v Ajax: Back Watkins to fire Villa into the last eight

• Villa can recover after sticky spell

• Molde to play out another thriller

• Defences to put attacks in Czech

• Dinamo can complete the job in Greece

Emery to stay on track for more UEFA glory

Aston Villa v Ajax
Thursday 14 March, 20:0

It's effectively a one-off match between these two after last week's goalless draw in Amsterdam, and although Villa are reeling after being smashed 4-0 by Tottenham at Villa Park at the weekend, their overall home form this season suggests they are worthy favourites here.

Villa have lost four of their last five at home in all competitions, but Ajax aren't remotely as good as any of the sides that have won at Villa Park.

The Dutch giants are well off the title pace in the Netherlands, and won't even qualify for the Champions League, and at the weekend they were held to a messy 2-2 draw at Fortuna Sittard.

Villa have won 14 times at home in all competitions, and in the UECL they have won all four matches.

I'll combine Villa to qualify with Ollie Watkins to score at a price of 1.981/1 on the Bet Builder. Watkins has found the net in five of his last nine games, and he has 22 goals for club and country this term.

Unai Emery is keen to add to the four Europa Leagues he has won, so I'd expect a strong starting XI, with Watkins leading the attack.

Norwegian sensations to play on front foot

Club Brugge v Molde
Thursday 14 March, 20:00

If you'd have asked me which Norwegian side would have gone the furthest in Europe this season, I'd have said champions Bodo Glimt, but their demise at the hands of Ajax left Molde flying the flag. Erling Moe's side dumped out Legia Warsaw in the playoff round, and now they are 2-1 up against Belgian giants Club Brugge.

All three of Molde's UECL games have featured three goals or more, and in their Europa League campaign, five out of six matched saw an Over 2.5 Goals bet land. They face a Club Brugge side that has seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land in 14 of its last 21 competitive matches, including 10 of the last 12.

We can use the Sportsbook's Bet Builder to combine a BTTS bet with Over 2.5 Goals at 1.981/1, and I think that's a fair price.

Czech clash to be cagey

Viktoria Plzen v Servette
Thursday 14 March, 17:45

The first leg of this tie in Switzerland didn't get the pulse racing. There were just four shots on target in the whole game, and Plzen dug in deep, mustering just one effort on target. There's little to suggest that the second leg will be a firefight, with a Europa Conference League quarter-final up for grabs.

If you look at Servette's four away games in Europe this term, they have scored just twice, and in the last round they won 1-0 at Bulgarian champions Ludogorets. Eight of their last 12 games in all competitions have seen an Under 2.5 Goals bet land.

Plzen smashed Sparta Prague 4-0 at the weekend, but the visitors were reduced to ten men, and their games in the UECL have been a lot more circumspect.

Remarkably, Viktoria have leaked just three goals in 13 European games this term, and I think 1.875/6 is actually a generous price for Under 2.5 Goals here. Alternatively, you could back No in the BTTS market at 1.981/1. That has paid out in ten of Viktoria's 13 UECL matches this season.

Dinamo can charge in Greece

PAOK v Dinamo Zagreb
Thursday 14 March, 17:45

It's been a strange European campaign for Dinamo Zagreb. The Croatian outfit lost to AEK Athens in the Champions League qualifiers, as they were edged out 4-3 on aggregate by conceding two goals in stoppage time at the end of the second leg in Greece.

The capital club then won 3-1 against Sparta Prague in the first leg of their Europa League qualifier, but then collapsed to a 4-1 loss in Prague. The critical goal arrived in the 87th minute.

In the UECL, Dinamo made a dreadful start, as they lost three of their first four group-stage games. However, they scraped a playoff spot, and then remarkably dumped out La Liga side Real Betis. In the first leg, the Croatians swept aside PAOK 2-0, but there is still work to do.

PAOK are in the midst of a fascinating battle for the Greek title, with five points separating the top four clubs, but their home form has collapsed. Their last three games in Thessaloniki have seen them lose to Panathinaikos 1-0 in the Greek Cup, be thrashed 4-1 by Olympiakos in the league and then lose 1-0 to Aris Salonika. Indeed, PAOK have won just four of their last ten games in all competitions.

Dinamo won in Seville against Betis, and they have a lot of European experience. I think PAOK are too short in the Match Odds market at 1.84/5, so I'll lay them.

Now read Kev's preview of West Ham v Freiburg here!