Saturday Championship Tipsheet: Robins to continue to entertain

Mike Norman
16 September 2016

Mike expects Nigel Pearson's Derby to finally get amongst the goals this weekend

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It's been a decent week for Mike Norman with some good-price winners in the Championship, and here our man returns with his three best bets ahead of Saturday's 3pm kick-offs...

"The Rams absolutely battered (excuse the pun) Ipswich in midweek, registering around 25 shots at goal. How they didn't score three or four is a mystery never mind failing to score just one."

Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.814/5 in Bristol City v Derby

Bristol City 2.809/5 v Derby 2.8415/8; The Draw 3.412/5

I mentioned in midweek how Bristol City can be too gung-ho for their own good, but because of their style of play then backing goals in their matches can reap rich rewards.

Perhaps you will never see a better example of what I was saying than in the Robins' 3-2 defeat at Sheff Wed on Tuesday night. Lee Johnson's men were excellent in the first half, soaking up pressure and hitting the Owls on the break, leading 2-0 at the interval.

But they failed to defend what they had and went for more goals. They conceded early in the second half, missed a golden opportunity from the penalty spot to go 3-1 up, and then completely lost the plot as they lost the game 3-2.

That's now three games in a row involving Bristol City that have gone Over 3.5 Goals. No, I'm not going barmy but I actually think we'll see goals again when the Robins host goal-shy Derby on Saturday.

Incredibly the Rams are the lowest scorers in the football league having scored just a solitary goal in seven outings. But I've watched two of Derby's games live and I've also seen a lot of highlights, including their midweek defeat to Ipswich. Believe me, Nigel Pearson's men will score plenty of goals this term, and hopefully they'll commence that scoring spree at the weekend.

The Rams absolutely battered (excuse the pun) Ipswich in midweek, registering around 25 shots at goal. How they didn't score three or four is a mystery never mind failing to score just one.

Saturday's trip to Ashton Gate could be perfect for Pearson's men. The Robins will attack, like they always do, but they'll leave gaps at the back, perfect for Derby's slick counter-attacking. This game really could be end-to-end and I'm going to push the boat out and wager that we'll see at least four goals in a game involving Bristol City for the fourth time in succession.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.814/5 (best bet)

Newcastle 1.684/6 v Wolves 6.05/1; The Draw 4.216/5

It's impossible not to be impressed with Newcastle; Tuesday's 6-0 demolition at QPR - and it could have been 10-0, believe me - was quite possibly the best away performance ever in the Championship.

I was sceptical at the start of the season as to whether Rafa Benitez's men should have been as short as they were to win this division. And I was right to a certain extent because after just two games the Magpies' price to win the title had drifted out to 7.26/1 from an initial 2.89/5. They're now as short at 2.01/1, and that looks generous to me.

So I hold my hands up, Newcastle look the real deal and will take some stopping now.

They look by far and away the best team at this level. They could afford to rest Dwight Gayle on Tuesday night but still scored six against a team whose three victories to date had all been achieved by not conceding.

It doesn't matter what starting XI Benitez goes with, Newcastle will be the favourites to win and only complacency - or a complete off day - will see them fail from time to time.

Wolves, another club that has huge ambitions, were thrashed 4-0 at home to Barnsley on Tuesday night so the only surprise to me ahead of this game is that Newcastle can be backed at 1.684/6. They're 1.42/5 shots in my book and I believe they'll win comfortably, hence the recommended wager.

Recommended Bet
Back Newcastle -1 to Win @ 2.68/5

Huddersfield 2.1411/10 v QPR 3.9; The Draw 3.55/2

Huddersfield suffered their first defeat of the season on Tuesday night, but they acquitted themselves extremely well at the home of a good Brighton side and were unfortunate to come away empty-handed.

The Terriers enjoyed slightly more possession than their hosts and registered just as many shots on target, and it was only a dreadful mistake by goalkeeper Danny Ward that gifted the Seagulls all three points.

Boss David Wagner should take a lot of heart from the performance and the fact that his side remain top of the Championship table after seven games. They've been the surprise package so far this season but Huddersfield are starting to look like genuine play-off, in not promotion, contenders.

I can see Wagner's men resuming winning ways against a QPR side who have endured a torrid week.

After a promising start to the campaign Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink's men took just one point from two home games, the first being a 1-1 draw with bottom of the table Blackburn before that humiliating 6-0 defeat at the hands of Newcastle.

As I alluded to before QPR's midweek game it could be that they're a better side on the road than they are at Loftus Road but I still believe it will take a huge effort to bounce back from the week they've had and go to the league leaders and avoid defeat. I'll be wagering that they don't.

Recommended Bet
Back Huddersfield to Win @ 2.1411/10