English Premier League

Premier League Opta Stats: Watkins & Salah part of 8/1 Bet Builder

Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp
Can Klopp win his final PL away game?

Last week, we landed our recommended bet of the week at 7/24.50 as Ben Brereton Diaz shot volume was not reflected in the prices, so we will once again read through the Opta facts to find a bet for each match this weekend...

Aston Villa v Liverpool

Bet Builder to finish the MD

The Opta Stat:

"No fixture in Premier League history has been won by the away side more often than Aston Villa vs Liverpool, with 22 of the 57 meetings between them being away wins. Indeed, Liverpool's Mohamed Salah has both scored and assisted in four different Premier League games this season, with only Cole Palmer doing so more often (5). He's done it 31 times overall in the Premier League, with only Wayne Rooney (36) and Thierry Henry (32) doing so more. On the other hand, Only against Brighton (6) has Ollie Watkins scored more Premier League goals than he has against Liverpool (5). His next goal will be his 20th in the league this season."

The Betfair Bet:

Saurday and Sunday bets

Fulham v Manchester City

Ignore the stars and profit from the rest

The Opta Stat:

"Rodri has assisted six goals in his last eight Premier League games for Man City. He's assisted twice in a match on two occasions in this run (v Man Utd and Wolves), having not assisted multiple goals in any of his first 161 appearances in the competition."

The Betfair Bet:

Bournemouth v Brentford

Senesi can profit from Cherries corners

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The Opta Stat:

"Only Arsenal (16) and Everton (12) have scored more Premier League goals from corners than Bournemouth this season (11). However, the Cherries are one of two teams (along with Fulham) yet to score from a free-kick (either direct or indirect) so far this term."

The Betfair Bet:

Everton v Sheffield United

Back to the mill

The Opta Stat:

"Despite only joining the club in January, no Sheffield United player has scored more Premier League goals this season than Ben Brereton (6). His rate of a goal every 158 minutes is the second best by a Blades player in a single Premier League campaign (min. 500 minutes), after Nathan Blake in 1993-94 (145). Indeed, he has had 16 shots across his last eight game, manging 2+ in four of those, 3+ in two and 4+ in one. 14 of those 18 shots have hit the target."

The Betfair Bet:

Newcastle United v Brighton & Hove Albion

Back the obvious at St James'

The Opta Stat:

"If he plays, this will be Newcastle striker Alexander Isak's 50th Premier League appearance. He's netted 10 goals in his last nine games in the competition, as well as finding the net in each of his last seven at St James' Park. Anthony Gordon has been involved in more home goals than any other Newcastle player in the Premier League this season (16 - 9 goals, 7 assists). It's the most by a player at St James' Park in a single top-flight campaign since Alan Shearer in 2003-04 (18 - 15 goals, 3 assists).

The Betfair Bet:

Tottenham Hotspur v Burnley

End to end game to end Burnley's PL stay

The Opta Stat:

"Failure to win for Burnley will see them relegated from the Premier League for the fourth time. The Clarets have lost all seven of their league games against sides starting the day in the top five this season by an aggregate score of 24-7."

The Betfair Bet:

West Ham United v Luton Town

Hammer blow to be dealt to both sides


The Opta Stat:

"Luton have both scored and conceded in 29 of their 36 Premier League games this season, a jointcompetition record alongside Swindon in 1993-94 and Southampton in 1994-95. The last side to see both themselves and their opponents score in more top-flight matches in a single campaign were Newcastle in 1985-86 (31). Indeed, West Ham have conceded 70 Premier League goals this season, their joint-most in a single campaign along with 2010-11 when they finished bottom. They last conceded more in a league season in 1975-76 (71)."

The Betfair Bet:

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Crystal Palace

Palace form can see them dominate

The Opta Stat:

"Wolves have been behind at half time in 13 different Premier League matches this season - only the current bottom three have trailed at the interval more often this term (Sheffield United 16, Luton 17, Burnley 19). Indeed, Wolves have conceded 60 Premier League goals this season, their most in a single top-flight campaign since 2011-12, when they finished bottom (82). Since the start of February, they've conceded 29 times in 15 games, with only Sheffield United (46), Luton (40) and West Ham (38) shipping more in that time."

The Betfair Bet:

Nottingham Forest v Chelsea

Chelsea coming good at the right time

The Opta Stat:

"Though they've lost just one of their last 12 Premier League games (W6 D5), Chelsea are winless in their last five away from home (D4 L1). Indeed, the Blues have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 14 Premier League away games, since a 2-0 win at Fulham in October. In fact, Chelsea's Premier League games have seen 129 goals this season (F70 A59), the third most after Sheffield United (135) and Newcastle (134). Indeed, only in 2009-10 (135) have Chelsea's games
produced more goals (F103 A32).

The Betfair Bet:

Manchester United v Arsenal

Rice Rice Baby

The Opta Stat:

"Manchester United have faced both the highest number of set-piece shots (190) and accumulated xG from set-pieces (15.9) of all Premier League sides this season, conceding 13 goals. Arsenal, meanwhile, have netted 20 set-piece goals this season, at least two more than any other side. Declan Rice, meanwhile, who is one of Arsenal's set-piece taker, has assisted in three straight Premier League matches, with only Bukayo Saka (9) managing more this season in the league than Rice (8)."

The Betfair Bet:

Opta Stats P/L 2023-24 -

(Single Recommended bet of the week)

Stake: 29pts
Return: 33.85
P/L: +4.85
ROI: +16.7%

(Overall Column)

Stake: 305pts
Return: 303.1
P/L: -1.9
ROI: -0.6%

Now read more of our weekend Premier League tips here!

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