English Premier League

Premier League Tipsheet: Ten of the best weekend bets from 5/6 to 4/1

Rodri, Manchester City
City's pivotal pivot

Ste Tudor highlights where the goals and three points will likely be found across the penultimate weekend of the Premier League season...


Fulham v Man City (Sat, 12:30) - Rodri the creator

After plundering four last weekend, Erling Haaland is an obvious candidate to propel City to the top of the league for 24 hours. The Striking Viking bagged a hat-trick against the Cottagers earlier this season.

Elsewhere, Kevin De Bruyne is always good for an assist while Julian Alvarez has fired two in three.

Away from individuals of course the main cause of Fulham's demise on Saturday lunchtime will be death by a thousand cuts, as Pep Guardiola's side maintains control, adjusts the rhythm of the game to their own will, and endlessly probe.

It's an approach, superbly executed, that has brought an average of 17.8 shots away from home this season, while it's also pertinent to point out that City have scored in both halves in five of their last seven away. That makes Man City/Man City a shout at 8/111.73.

Rodri too must be a consideration, City's pivotal pivot benefiting from being pushed further forward, in a similar manner to Rice at Arsenal. The Spanish midfielder has carved out six assists and a goal in his last eight displays.

With 90 minutes of graft awaiting Fulham it's worth noting that only five players have committed more fouls this term than Palhinha.


Bournemouth v Brentford (Sat, 15:00) - Third in line

It can safely be assumed that Gareth Southgate will take two out-and-out centre-forwards with him to Germany this summer, those being Harry Kane and Ollie Watkins.

What we have at the Vitality this Saturday then is the intriguing proposition of two strikers auditioning to be the back-up to the back-up, the third in line privately hoping that an injury occurs between now and June. Just a hamstring strain. Nothing serious.

Ivan Toney's sustained goal drought has done him no favours in this regard, the Bees hit-man now goalless in nine starts and a cameo off the bench.

In contrast, Dominic Solanke has not gone more than three games without notching all season.

Bournemouth have only lost twice at home since October - to Liverpool and Manchester City - and are fancied here to prevail over an out-of-sorts Brentford who have drawn four in seven.

The hosts should certainly be backed to win out at set-pieces, boasting the fourth highest number of corners this term. In their last five at home they have averaged 8.8 per 90.


Everton v Sheff Utd (Sat, 15:00) - Surprise, surprise

The Blades have hemorrhaged 100 goals across a miserable campaign, with 16 of them coming in their last four fixtures.

The Toffees meanwhile have only conceded once in their last four, and have the second highest number of clean sheets in the top-flight.

Surely this all equates to one-way traffic?

But wait, because up front Sean Dyche's men have too often been found wanting, converting just 38 goals from 51.9 xG.

The visitors meanwhile have scored in eight of their last nine, striking twice at the Vitality Stadium and Old Trafford. It's notable too that Ben Brereton has scored every 158 mins in 2023/24.

With their seasons over bar the shouting, don't be surprised to be surprised at what might transpire at Goodison.


Newcastle v Brighton (Sat, 15:00) - Home advantage

The Seagulls have won only twice on the road since September, both against bottom six opposition, while home and away their goals have dried up of late.

Roberto De Zerbi's side haven't scored more than a single goal in any of their last ten games, failing to score in half of them.

Joao Pedro's rediscovery of where the net is bodes well, the Brazilian notching his first last weekend post-injury. All told, the 22-year-old has taken on 3.3 shots per 90 this term.

Brighton also have the muscle memory of beating the Magpies earlier in the campaign, bossing every meaningful stat.

That aside though, all of the positives reside with the hosts who have repeatedly proven they have the ways and means to pummel teams into submission at St James Park.

In seven of their 18 there this term they have racked up 4+ goals and Alexander Isak certainly enjoys home advantage, scoring in each of his last seven games in the North-East.

English Premier League - Top 8 Shots On Target

Player Team Apps Shots On target SoT/90*
Pablo Sarabia Wolves 2 2 6.4
Crysencio Summerville West Ham 2 1 4.3
Erling Haaland Man City 3 10 3.3
João Félix Chelsea 2 2 3.3
Jhon Durán Aston Villa 3 3 3.3
Noni Madueke Chelsea 2 6 3.1
Dominic Solanke Tottenham 1 3 3
Raúl Jiménez Fulham 3 1 2.7
Jesper Lindstrøm Everton 1 1 2.7
Taiwo Awoniyi Nottm Forest 3 1 2.6
Luis Sinisterra Bournemouth 3 3 2.5
Bukayo Saka Arsenal 3 7 2.4
Chris Wood Nottm Forest 3 6 2.3
Rodrigo Bentancur Tottenham 2 2 2.1
Mohamed Salah Liverpool 3 6 2.1
Conor Bradley Liverpool 3 1 2
Nicolas Jackson Chelsea 3 5 2
Leandro Trossard Arsenal 3 2 1.9
Simon Adingra Brighton 3 1 1.8
Marcus Tavernier Bournemouth 3 5 1.7
Mason Mount Man Utd 2 2 1.7
Joshua Zirkzee Man Utd 3 3 1.7
Eberechi Eze Crystal Palace 3 5 1.7
Luis Díaz Liverpool 3 4 1.6
Jacob Ramsey Aston Villa 3 2 1.6
Mateus Fernandes Southampton 2 1 1.5
Rodrigo Muniz Fulham 3 4 1.5
Tyler Dibling Southampton 3 1 1.5
Niclas Füllkrug West Ham 3 1 1.4
Matheus Cunha Wolves 3 3 1.4
Ryan Yates Nottm Forest 3 2 1.4
Morgan Gibbs-White Nottm Forest 3 4 1.3
Bryan Mbeumo Brentford 3 4 1.3
Antoine Semenyo Bournemouth 3 4 1.3
Evanilson Bournemouth 2 2 1.3
Iliman Ndiaye Everton 3 2 1.3
Pape Sarr Tottenham 3 2 1.2
Yasin Ayari Brighton 3 1 1.2
James Maddison Tottenham 3 3 1.1
Callum Hudson-Odoi Nottm Forest 3 3 1.1
Cameron Archer Southampton 3 1 1.1
Yoane Wissa Brentford 3 3 1.1
Danny Welbeck Brighton 3 3 1.1
Adam Wharton Crystal Palace 3 3 1.1
Bruno Fernandes Man Utd 3 3 1
Oliver Skipp Leicester 2 1 1
João Pedro Brighton 3 3 1
Cole Palmer Chelsea 3 3 1
Kaoru Mitoma Brighton 3 3 1
Alex Iwobi Fulham 3 3 1
Kevin De Bruyne Man City 3 3 1
Son Heung-Min Tottenham 3 3 1
Kai Havertz Arsenal 3 3 1
Joachim Andersen Crystal Palace 1 1 1
Séamus Coleman Everton 1 1 1
Willy-Arnaud Boly Nottm Forest 2 1 1
Ollie Watkins Aston Villa 3 2 1
Keane Lewis-Potter Brentford 3 1 0.9
Adam Armstrong Southampton 3 2 0.9
Yukinari Sugawara Southampton 3 2 0.9
Rayan Aït-Nouri Wolves 3 2 0.8
Brennan Johnson Tottenham 3 2 0.8
Harvey Barnes Newcastle 3 1 0.8
Amadou Onana Aston Villa 3 2 0.8
Jack Harrison Everton 3 2 0.8
Odsonne Édouard Crystal Palace 2 1 0.8
Anthony Elanga Nottm Forest 3 2 0.8
Jacob Murphy Newcastle 3 1 0.8
Adama Traoré Fulham 3 2 0.8
Liam Delap Ipswich 3 2 0.8
Jamie Vardy Leicester 3 2 0.8
Mikkel Damsgaard Brentford 3 1 0.7
Alejandro Garnacho Man Utd 3 1 0.7
Abdul Fatawu Leicester 3 2 0.7
Jarrod Bowen West Ham 3 2 0.7
Andy Robertson Liverpool 3 2 0.7
Martin Ødegaard Arsenal 3 2 0.7
Jørgen Strand Larsen Wolves 3 2 0.7
Kyle Walker-Peters Southampton 3 2 0.7
Omari Hutchinson Ipswich 3 2 0.7
Wilfred Ndidi Leicester 3 2 0.7
Pedro Porro Tottenham 3 2 0.7
Jacob Greaves Ipswich 3 2 0.7
Alexander Isak Newcastle 3 2 0.7
Joelinton Newcastle 3 2 0.7
Nathan Collins Brentford 3 2 0.7
Bernardo Silva Man City 3 2 0.7
Cristian Romero Tottenham 3 2 0.7
Bobby De Cordova-Reid Leicester 3 1 0.6
Yves Bissouma Tottenham 2 1 0.6
Kevin Schade Brentford 3 1 0.5
Sam Szmodics Ipswich 3 1 0.5
Amad Diallo Man Utd 3 1 0.5
James Milner Brighton 3 1 0.5
Facundo Buonanotte Leicester 3 1 0.5
Leon Bailey Aston Villa 3 1 0.5
Tomás Soucek West Ham 3 1 0.5
Daichi Kamada Crystal Palace 3 1 0.5
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde Wolves 3 1 0.5
Emile Smith Rowe Fulham 3 1 0.4
Yankuba Minteh Brighton 3 1 0.4
Ibrahim Sangaré Nottm Forest 3 1 0.4
Will Smallbone Southampton 3 1 0.4
Kristoffer Ajer Brentford 3 1 0.4
Declan Rice Arsenal 3 1 0.4
Casemiro Man Utd 3 1 0.4
Ibrahima Konaté Liverpool 3 1 0.4
Diogo Jota Liverpool 3 1 0.4
Jérémy Doku Man City 3 1 0.4
Mateo Kovacic Man City 3 1 0.4
Dominic Calvert-Lewin Everton 3 1 0.4
Anthony Gordon Newcastle 3 1 0.4
Emerson West Ham 3 1 0.4
Ben Brereton Southampton 3 1 0.4
Lucas Paquetá West Ham 3 1 0.4
Noussair Mazraoui Man Utd 3 1 0.3
Lewis Cook Bournemouth 3 1 0.3
Josko Gvardiol Man City 3 1 0.3
Idrissa Gueye Everton 3 1 0.3
Kenny Tete Fulham 3 1 0.3
Virgil van Dijk Liverpool 3 1 0.3
Neco Williams Nottm Forest 3 1 0.3
Dan Burn Newcastle 3 1 0.3
Michael Keane Everton 3 1 0.3
Bruno Guimarães Newcastle 3 1 0.3
Dwight McNeil Everton 3 1 0.3
Ben White Arsenal 3 1 0.3
Thomas Partey Arsenal 3 1 0.3
Jack Hinshelwood Brighton 3 1 0.3
Morgan Rogers Aston Villa 3 1 0.3
Ethan Pinnock Brentford 3 1 0.3
Enzo Fernández Chelsea 3 1 0.3
Levi Colwill Chelsea 3 1 0.3
Wout Faes Leicester 3 1 0.3
Matthijs de Ligt Man Utd 3 0 0
Harry Maguire Man Utd 3 0 0
Bernd Leno Fulham 3 0 0
Diogo Dalot Man Utd 3 0 0
Calvin Bassey Fulham 3 0 0
Marcus Rashford Man Utd 3 0 0
André Onana Man Utd 3 0 0
Andreas Pereira Fulham 3 0 0
Lisandro Martínez Man Utd 3 0 0
Antonee Robinson Fulham 3 0 0
Sasa Lukic Fulham 3 0 0
Kobbie Mainoo Man Utd 3 0 0
Tom Cairney Fulham 3 0 0
Issa Diop Fulham 3 0 0
Harry Wilson Fulham 3 0 0
Trent Alexander-Arnold Liverpool 3 0 0
Conor Chaplin Ipswich 3 0 0
Ali Al-Hamadi Ipswich 3 0 0
Alisson Becker Liverpool 3 0 0
Ryan Gravenberch Liverpool 3 0 0
Luke Woolfenden Ipswich 3 0 0
Cody Gakpo Liverpool 3 0 0
Leif Davis Ipswich 3 0 0
Alexis Mac Allister Liverpool 3 0 0
Dominik Szoboszlai Liverpool 3 0 0
Axel Tuanzebe Ipswich 3 0 0
Sam Morsy Ipswich 3 0 0
Jan Bednarek Southampton 3 0 0
Toti Gomes Wolves 3 0 0
Jan Paul van Hecke Brighton 3 0 0
Illia Zabarnyi Bournemouth 3 0 0
Craig Dawson Wolves 3 0 0
Matz Sels Nottm Forest 3 0 0
Matt Doherty Wolves 3 0 0
James Tarkowski Everton 3 0 0
Joe Aribo Southampton 3 0 0
Flynn Downes Southampton 3 0 0
Taylor Harwood-Bellis Southampton 3 0 0
David Raya Arsenal 3 0 0
Murillo Nottm Forest 3 0 0
João Gomes Wolves 3 0 0
Justin Kluivert Bournemouth 3 0 0
Julián Araujo Bournemouth 3 0 0
William Saliba Arsenal 3 0 0
Beto Everton 3 0 0
Lloyd Kelly Newcastle 3 0 0
Gabriel Martinelli Arsenal 3 0 0
Emil Krafth Newcastle 3 0 0
Ola Aina Nottm Forest 3 0 0
Adam Smith Bournemouth 3 0 0
Abdoulaye Doucouré Everton 3 0 0
Yerson Mosquera Wolves 3 0 0
Lewis Hall Newcastle 3 0 0
Gabriel Magalhães Arsenal 3 0 0
Mario Lemina Wolves 3 0 0
Vitalii Mykolenko Everton 3 0 0
Sean Longstaff Newcastle 3 0 0
Nick Pope Newcastle 3 0 0
Milos Kerkez Bournemouth 3 0 0
Jurriën Timber Arsenal 3 0 0
Tim Iroegbunam Everton 3 0 0
Tino Livramento Newcastle 3 0 0
Joël Veltman Brighton 3 0 0
Ryan Christie Bournemouth 3 0 0
Dango Ouattara Bournemouth 3 0 0
Hwang Hee-Chan Wolves 3 0 0
Jack Stephens Southampton 3 0 0
Jordan Pickford Everton 3 0 0
Elliot Anderson Nottm Forest 3 0 0
Lewis Dunk Brighton 3 0 0
Alex Scott Bournemouth 3 0 0
Maximilian Kilman West Ham 3 0 0
Michail Antonio West Ham 3 0 0
Emiliano Martínez Aston Villa 3 0 0
Vladimír Coufal West Ham 3 0 0
Pau Torres Aston Villa 3 0 0
Konstantinos Mavropanos West Ham 3 0 0
Guido Rodríguez West Ham 3 0 0
Ezri Konsa Aston Villa 3 0 0
Alphonse Areola West Ham 3 0 0
Ian Maatsen Aston Villa 3 0 0
Kosta Nedeljkovic Aston Villa 3 0 0
John McGinn Aston Villa 3 0 0
Lucas Digne Aston Villa 3 0 0
Youri Tielemans Aston Villa 3 0 0
Mohammed Kudus West Ham 3 0 0
Daniel Muñoz Crystal Palace 3 0 0
Ismaïla Sarr Crystal Palace 3 0 0
Chris Richards Crystal Palace 3 0 0
Dean Henderson Crystal Palace 3 0 0
Mads Roerslev Brentford 3 0 0
Tyrick Mitchell Crystal Palace 3 0 0
Fábio Carvalho Brentford 3 0 0
Christian Nørgaard Brentford 3 0 0
Mark Flekken Brentford 3 0 0
Jordan Ayew Crystal Palace 3 0 0
Marc Guéhi Crystal Palace 3 0 0
Vitaly Janelt Brentford 3 0 0
Jean-Philippe Mateta Crystal Palace 3 0 0
Mathias Jensen Brentford 3 0 0
Christopher Nkunku Chelsea 3 0 0
Ederson Man City 3 0 0
Rúben Dias Man City 3 0 0
Moisés Caicedo Chelsea 3 0 0
Pedro Neto Chelsea 3 0 0
Marc Cucurella Chelsea 3 0 0
Wesley Fofana Chelsea 3 0 0
Malo Gusto Chelsea 3 0 0
Manuel Akanji Man City 3 0 0
Rico Lewis Man City 3 0 0
Robert Sánchez Chelsea 3 0 0
Harry Winks Leicester 3 0 0
James Justin Leicester 3 0 0
Stephy Mavididi Leicester 3 0 0
Lucas Bergvall Tottenham 3 0 0
Victor Kristiansen Leicester 3 0 0
Destiny Udogie Tottenham 3 0 0
Dejan Kulusevski Tottenham 3 0 0
Mads Hermansen Leicester 3 0 0
Guglielmo Vicario Tottenham 3 0 0
Scott McTominay Man Utd 2 0 0
Kostas Tsimikas Liverpool 2 0 0
Jack Taylor Ipswich 2 0 0
Darwin Núñez Liverpool 2 0 0
Ben Johnson Ipswich 2 0 0
Massimo Luongo Ipswich 2 0 0
Marcus Harness Ipswich 2 0 0
Neto Bournemouth 2 0 0
Rodrigo Gomes Wolves 2 0 0
Jason Steele Brighton 2 0 0
Nicolás Domínguez Nottm Forest 2 0 0
Oleksandr Zinchenko Arsenal 2 0 0
Tommy Doyle Wolves 2 0 0
Daniel Jebbison Bournemouth 2 0 0
Daniel Podence Wolves 2 0 0
Billy Gilmour Brighton 2 0 0
Samuel Edozie Southampton 2 0 0
José Sá Wolves 2 0 0
Carlos Baleba Brighton 2 0 0
Dean Huijsen Bournemouth 2 0 0
Alex McCarthy Southampton 2 0 0
Riccardo Calafiori Arsenal 2 0 0
Matty Cash Aston Villa 2 0 0
Ross Barkley Aston Villa 2 0 0
Aaron Wan-Bissaka West Ham 2 0 0
Cheick Doucouré Crystal Palace 2 0 0
Frank Onyeka Brentford 2 0 0
Jeffrey Schlupp Crystal Palace 2 0 0
Jefferson Lerma Crystal Palace 2 0 0
Will Hughes Crystal Palace 2 0 0
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall Chelsea 2 0 0
Matheus Nunes Man City 2 0 0
Savinho Man City 2 0 0
Jack Grealish Man City 2 0 0
Mykhailo Mudryk Chelsea 2 0 0
Renato Veiga Chelsea 2 0 0
Timo Werner Tottenham 2 0 0
Jannik Vestergaard Leicester 2 0 0
Archie Gray Tottenham 2 0 0
Djed Spence Tottenham 2 0 0
Richarlison Tottenham 2 0 0
Micky van de Ven Tottenham 2 0 0
Julio Enciso Brighton 2 0 0
Georginio Rutter Brighton 2 0 0
Arijanet Muric Ipswich 2 0 0
Wilson Odobert Tottenham 2 0 0
Ilkay Gündogan Man City 2 0 0
Nikola Milenkovic Nottm Forest 2 0 0
Edson Álvarez West Ham 2 0 0
Marcos Senesi Bournemouth 2 0 0
Toby Collyer Man Utd 1 0 0
Christian Walton Ipswich 1 0 0
Wes Burns Ipswich 1 0 0
Kalvin Phillips Ipswich 1 0 0
Jarell Quansah Liverpool 1 0 0
Harry Toffolo Nottm Forest 1 0 0
Joe Willock Newcastle 1 0 0
Kieran Trippier Newcastle 1 0 0
Mats Wieffer Brighton 1 0 0
Adam Webster Brighton 1 0 0
Aaron Ramsdale Arsenal 1 0 0
Ashley Young Everton 1 0 0
Gonçalo Guedes Wolves 1 0 0
Charlie Taylor Southampton 1 0 0
Danilo Nottm Forest 1 0 0
Fabian Schär Newcastle 1 0 0
James Ward-Prowse West Ham 1 0 0
Lukasz Fabianski West Ham 1 0 0
Jaden Philogene Aston Villa 1 0 0
Chadi Riad Crystal Palace 1 0 0
Sam Johnstone Crystal Palace 1 0 0
Nathaniel Clyne Crystal Palace 1 0 0
John Stones Man City 1 0 0
Phil Foden Man City 1 0 0
Marc Guiu Chelsea 1 0 0
Roméo Lavia Chelsea 1 0 0
Radu Dragusin Tottenham 1 0 0
Caleb Okoli Leicester 1 0 0
Boubakary Soumaré Leicester 1 0 0
Roman Dixon Everton 1 0 0
Jens Cajuste Ipswich 1 0 0
Sepp van den Berg Brentford 1 0 0
Bart Verbruggen Brighton 1 0 0
Pervis Estupiñán Brighton 1 0 0
Chiedozie Ogbene Ipswich 1 0 0
Nélson Semedo Wolves 1 0 0
Kepa Bournemouth 1 0 0
Sander Berge Fulham 1 0 0
Bilal El Khannouss Leicester 1 0 0
Lamare Bogarde Aston Villa 1 0 0
Sandro Tonali Newcastle 1 0 0
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Speaking of Isak, his fledgling partnership with Callum Wilson - trialed to good effect last season and once again last Saturday - should strike fear into defenders great and good.

Both forwards are in the top six for shots on target this season. In his last outing against Burnley, the Swede tested the keeper on three occasions.


Tottenham v Burnley (Sat, 15:00) - In need of repair

Anything other than three points will see the Clarets make a swift return to the Championship and though victory in North London feels like a tall order, we must factor in that Spurs are in horrible shape right now.

Four defeats back-to-back has seen them ship in 13 and furthermore it's shone a great big spotlight on two flaws that have long hindered them.

Spurs are woeful at defending set pieces, conceding 14 times from dead-ball situations in 2023/24. And no other team have lost possession more in their defensive third.

Can Burnley take advantage of such failings? Certainly Postecoglou's creation looks broken and will need repairing over the summer, but Son Heung-min is a genuine threat to the visitors' survival hopes. Bagging a hat-trick when they last met in September the forward has eight goal involvements from prior encounters.

Goals are the way to go here, and a fair few of them. Both teams have scored in eight of Burnley's last nine games while Tottenham's fixtures this season have produced an average of 3.6.


West Ham v Luton (Sat, 15:00) - Down fighting

A defeat would all-but-condemn the Hatters to the drop so expect them to play to their strengths, with plenty of ambition and intent shown down the flanks.

The return of Elijah Adebayo is a big plus for Rob Edwards and it's not a coincidence that 40% of the striker's goals this season have come from headers. Luton have fired over 801 crosses all told, a league high.

It naturally follows too that Luton have amassed a high volume of corners this term.

Another well-known trope associated with the relegation strugglers is that they score regularly late-on, but they have notched inside 20 minutes at St James Park, Anfield, the Vitality Stadium and at Spurs in 2024. It may therefore be pertinent that only Burnley and Sheffield United have conceded more first-half goals than the Hammers in 2023/24.

Whether they have the wherewithal to maintain a lead however remains to be seen, with Mohammed Kudus' 4.6 successful dribbles per 90 surpassed only by Jeremy Doku and Jarrod Bowen boasting four in his last five at home.

Heartache possibly awaits.


Wolves v Crystal Palace (Sat, 15:00) - Polar opposites

A heavy defeat to little resistance at the Etihad last week has done little to dissuade those who believe Wolves' race is run. Gary O'Neil's men has been second-best in duels won in four of their last five fixtures, against City considerably so.

Rash tackles have took the place of committed ones, as evidenced by Nelson Semedo picking up five bookings in his last 10. Wolves have averaged 3.2 yellows per game since their poor run began at the end of March.

A very different narrative applies to Palace whose season figuratively began only three months ago when Oliver Glasner took charge and put them on the front foot.

mateta.jpg

Benefiting hugely from this more offensive approach, an attacking trio of Olise, Eze and Mateta are running amok, the latter in especially prolific mood. The French striker boasts six goals in six.

With Wolves porous in recent weeks an away victory is fancied, though don't discount a late consolation. Palace have conceded the most top-flight goals this term (10) in added-on time.


Nottingham Forest v Chelsea (Sat, 17:30) - Look at the stars

Forest are unfortunate to face Chelsea in possibly their best moment of the season, after seeing off Spurs and West Ham, both times to nil. Clawing back a two-goal deficit at Villa Park is not to be sniffed at either.

Yet the Blues remain unpredictable on the road, with an inability to keep clean sheets away from the Bridge. They last managed to do so on October 2nd.

A win for the Tricky Trees will either guarantee safety or virtually secure it and their player to watch is Morgan Gibbs-White, creator of big chances every 2.3 games. Callum Hudson-Odoi is coming into form too.

As for the Blues, besides Cole Palmer's obvious threats, Noni Madueke is averaging 3.3 successful dribbles per 90 while Nicolas Jackson has six goal involvements in five.

For all of their recent improvements, Chelsea's discipline problems cannot be overlooked.

They have already picked up the second most cautions in Premier League history. Four more at the weekend and they accrue a very unwelcome record.


Man United v Arsenal (Sun, 16:30) - Vast disparity

There are a hundred ways to illustrate the vast disparity between these two sides at present, not least Arsenal's odds to score twice or more at Old Trafford this Sunday.

The title-chasers are 2/71.29 to do so and you would presumably get similar for Mikel Arteta to stray outside his technical area at some juncture of the game.

Yet the price is right. Arsenal have scored 3.1 goals per 90 in 2024 while a crisis-hit United - decimated of defenders, confidence, and any real sort of game-plan - have been breached 2+ times in four of their last five sorry outings, and 51% overall this season.
It's focusing on shots though where some value can be found.

United have faced 316 in 2024, a remarkable tally, and had to deal with 10 on target against Liverpool and Chelsea in recent weeks.
Saka, Odegaard, Havertz and Trossard, all hell-bent on winning the league, are more than capable of getting close to that.


Aston Villa v Liverpool (Mon, 20:00) - Front-runners

The first goal here will be key because both sides are excellent front-runners. Between them, they've lost only once from a winning position (Villa at Old Trafford on Boxing Day) and for both winning positions have been the norm.

Darwin Nunez's 4.7 shots per 90 is certainly noteworthy, it being a league high, while Ollie Watkins has previous against the Reds, scoring five in past encounters.

The Uruguayan however has resided on the bench in recent weeks and Watkins has begun to misfire. Nothing major, but enough to plant a seed of doubt.

Two other players therefore demand attention.

Mo Salah, with his xGOT of 20.8, is revved up with a point to prove. Wataru Endo meanwhile has committed 2.6 fouls per 90 this term.


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