ITV Races - Tony Calvin

Saturday ITV Racing Tips: Tony Calvin's trio of bets at Ascot

Betfair tipster Tony Calvin
Tony has three tips at Ascot on Saturday

The ITV cameras are at Ascot, Lingfield and Haydock on Saturday and it's the first named track where Tony Calvin - fresh from tipping the 10/1 winner of the Chester Cup - recommends a trio of bets....

  • Trials day at Lingfield but no bets for now

  • 7/18.00 King hoping to be crowned a winner at Ascot

  • 20/121.00 and 33/134.00 bets in the competitive 7f handicap


Ryan Moore Superboost

Betfair Ambassador Ryan Moore has three strong rides at Lingfield this afternoon, including the favourite in the Lingfield Derby trial at 15:00, and if you fancy the star jockey to ride at least one winner today you can back him at the super-boosted price of 1/12.00 (from 8/131.61).


Lingfield - 13:50: No Bet

The running order at Lingfield on Saturday had more re-shuffles than a pack (or do the yanks call it a deck, as it has been a while since I have been to Vegas) of cards at the WSOP, but we eventually got there around 11am on Thursday morning and trials day there starts with a nine-runner 1m3f133yd handicap at 13:50.

I have no issue with Aimeric being the 5/23.50 favourite here but there has to be a compelling reason for me to tip at that price, and he just doesn't quite cut it.

I don't know why but I have a soft spot for Saeed Bin Suroor-trained runners, an appreciation not shared by the Godolphin hierarchy it seems, as his operation is being wound down and Global Heat is only his fourth UK runner this year.

He had a 4/71.57 handicap winner at Yarmouth last week, and I was surprised to see Global Heat open up as big as 16s in four places on Thursday , with the Sportsbook a more defensive 12/113.00.

I'd be in the latter camp and agree with the Sportsbook's pricing.

The 8yo didn't do a lot in two starts in Dubai, and he has been unreliable in the past, but he came down 4lb for them, and he is now 6lb lower than when a good fifth at Haydock last June.

And I think you can mark up that run a fair bit as he paid for trying to get to the all-the-way winner there and ebbed away close home (it actually looked like his jockey dropped his hands there, or maybe he got checked up).

That was the last time he wore cheekpieces, and that headgear is back on here. If he runs up to that Haydock form, he has a definite chance here.

However, I can't really recommend him at 12s, when he is four points bigger elsewhere (as well as 14s), as I don't think that is on, myself.

Transparency is all. I know some people may say the percentage difference between 16s and 12s is minimal, but you have to draw the odds line somewhere, or else you'd be tipping at any price. And 12s is just about his price, anyway; and he hardly ripped it up in Meydan at the start of the year.

One for any Saturday morning update perhaps.

Lingfield - 14:25: No Bet

No result would surprise me in the seven-runner Lingfield Oaks trial at 14:25, so I was very surprised to see Danielle so short at 5/42.25 with the Sportsbook. In fact, that is the top price out there and she is even skinnier elsewhere.

Of course, she is very promising and well-related (she is a half-sister to Gold Cup winner Courage Mon Ami), and she sauntered home at odds-on at Wetherby last time, but I couldn't get her to anywhere near her current price on what she has achieved to date.

She has a very similar level of form to Molten Rock, and that one is available at 10s in a few places in the wider marketplace.

In Ralph we trust in these 3yo fillies' races, so his Treasure and You Got To Me are of obvious interest in here as well, but it's a race in which you'd be forcing a bet - well, I would be, anyway - given the lightly-raced nature of the participants and I can easily leave well alone.

If you can get Danielle in the can at around that 5/42.25 on the exchange, then having the field running for you at 4/51.80 appeals. The Sportsbook are top price about Cherry Burton and Bigtime Bridget at 33s and 50s respectively, and they have their chances too, as it is probably a lot more open than the betting suggests.

Lingfield - 15:00: No Bet

I had similar vibes about the nine-runner Derby trial at 15:00, in that I could genuinely see a case for them all at their respective prices.

Well, maybe 100s poke At Vimeiro is pushing it but, then again, he is rated 92 and that is higher than some in here trading at a fraction of his price. And the more I looked at his chances, then I thought he wasn't a totally ridiculous poke.

Yes, he needs to improve a good deal but, by Sea The Stars out of a German 1m4f Group 2 winner/Group 1 runner-up, this 650,000 guineas yearling (though I am not sure if he was one of those Tatts horses where the intended £20m purchaser didn't cough up) should relish the step up in trip from a mile.

Lingfield AW 1280 x 853.png

I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if he beat more than beat him.

In fact, if the Sportsbook were 100/1101.00, as he is in three places on the Oddschecker grid - they are 66s - then I would have strongly considered tipping him each way.

He was a big eye-catcher on his debut in a good maiden at Doncaster and it could simply be the mile he has been running over in all four of his starts to date, including at Yarmouth last month when admittedly underwhelming, has been hugely inadequate.

Another Saturday morning update candidate.

Lingfield - 15:35: No Bet

Remarquee (I had nasty flashbacks to the 1,000 Guineas when writing that) is even money in the 7f Listed fillies' race at 15:35, and I'd much rather be a backer than a layer at that price, as she will surely dot up here if running to her second placings in the Group 1 Coronation and Falmouth Stakes. Some thought she should have won at Ascot with a clean spin.

She is basically the same price as Danielle in the earlier race, and I'd know what one of that pair I'd back, if forced. All day long.

The possible negatives are that this is her reappearance, she has had a wind op (not always a positive), and the stable isn't firing on all cylinders, so no bet looks the right strategy. And I suppose the race-fit Great Generation could prove troublesome.

Ascot - 13:30: Back King Of The Plains

Over to Ascot then. It was actually still soft in places on Thursday morning but it is now good on the straight course, and good to soft, good in places, on the round track.

It will surely be approaching good to firm everywhere by Saturday afternoon given the forecast for the next 24 hours.

We have three decent handicaps to go at here on ITV's coverage, starting with a 14-runner 1m3f211yd heat at 13:30.

This is a tricky one all right but I would regard the stable switch of King Of The Plains to be a fair positive - James Horton deserves all the luck coming to him - and he ended last season in good style with a comprehensive win in a good time at Newcastle.

He was picked up for what could prove a bargain 47,000gns out of Charlie Johnston's stable in October, and it is interesting to note that David Redvers is one of three registered new owners (along with David Howden, a bigwig Ascot sponsor, who he is racing manager to), given Qatar Racing previously paid the horse's bills.

Redvers actually signed for the horse for 85,000 euros at the Arqana Sales in October 2021.

Given the owner angle, that may be why Oisin Murphy is booked (he was on the horse on its first three starts), and he has his first ride for the yard.

He is 7s across the board, including with the Sportsbook - they opened up at 9s - and that looks a fair price about a horse with plenty of upside after just the six starts. He is well handicapped on the Newcastle win, and the colt is regally bred too, being by Roaring Lion out of a French 1,000 Guineas and Oaks winner.

Back him win-only at 7/18.00 with the Sportsbook, who are paying four places. Think First is respected, but his price of 6s is nothing flash (his odds bizarrely range from 9/25.50 to 10s elsewhere).

Ascot - 14:05: No Bet

The 10-runner fillies' handicap at 14:05 looks a hard race to call, so little wonder it is 5s the field if you shop around.

I wouldn't be confident of getting one in the first three but a token choice would be Rose Prick at 8s. She was a big drifter when running a good third in Listed company on her return at Kempton and hails from a bang-in-form stable, as well as having course form.

But it wouldn't be anywhere near a strong enough recommendation to put her up here in such a competitive and deep field, for all there are just 10 runners.

Ascot - 14:40: Back Rhoscolyn

A 100k 7f handicap at 14:40 rounds off the coverage at Ascot and, if the earlier fillies' race is a puzzle, then it has nothing on this. The Sportsbook are 8s the field, and they are paying five places.

I didn't see that much pace in here - maybe six forward-goers - and they were in 3, 7, 10, 12, 19 and 21, so that didn't give too many clues, though I personally like to be drawn high here (though last year's winner came from 2).

I was very surprised that the Sportsbook opened up at 33s about Rhoscolyn, as he has a lot going for him from stall eight, for all he maybe has he has nothing hidden from the handicapper these days as a 6yo.

He comes here after a good fourth at Haydock last time, a race in which he didn't get the breaks, he won't mind the drying ground and he has some good Ascot performances to his name, most obviously his third in the Buckingham Palace off 103 on fast ground in 2022.

A mark of 98 looks okay then, so take the 33s win-only if it is still there when you read this. 25s or bigger would be fine.

Ascot - 14:40: Back Wobwobwob

Wobwobwob, drawn in 22, did remarkably well to win at Thirsk last time, given the traffic problems he encountered, so I think he can still be competitive here off a 4lb higher mark.

The issue for him is if the ground became genuinely quick, as ideally he needs a bit of dig, but I'll take my chances. They could take him out on the day but the excellent form of the yard is another plus for him.

Back him at 21.020/1 or bigger on the exchange. He is also 20s with the Sportsbook.

Haydock - 15:15: No Bet

You'll have to pay a chunky premium to get with Lark In The Mornin in Haydock's Swinton Hurdle at 15:15, as he was just an opening 7/42.75 chance with the Sportsbook for the 17-runner handicap hurdle (seven were balloted out - see below for details). He is out to 2s now, though 5/23.50 elsewhere.

You can fully see why he is such a strong favourite as he won the Boodles in spite of the heavy ground (or so connections would have you believe), and he bolted up there.

An 8lb rise on decent ground may well not stop him here - in fact, he may laugh at these, having been taken out at Punchestown last week due to the soft conditions - but no way am I recommending him at those odds in a competitive handicap.

I was shocked to see a valuable 2m handicap hurdle without a Dan Skelton runner.

The Without Favourite markets could be handy here, but they take an age to come through, so they are not an option as this goes live.

I had a fair old go at Luttrell Lad at Aintree last time and he disappointed me in finishing sixth there, but he seemed to get very agitated at the tapes, as the starter took an age (maybe five minutes or so from memory), and I reckon he is better than he showed there.

His trainer Tom Lacey is in great form, with five recent winners - including a 16s poke at Punchestown - but I was a little underwhelmed by Luttrell Lad being put in at just 14/115.00 here. That said, he is only 16s elsewhere, with the opening 20s in a place not lasting long.

I may do a Saturday morning update and, if so, Luttrell Lad may well feature. I'd be looking for around 8 to 10s without the jolly, and each way 1,2,3,4 would be nice too, so hopefully all 17 run.

Teddy Blue may be an old hound but he is 3lb lower than when second in this race last year under today's claimer. A speed-favouring 2m with a strong pace to aim at (I had five potential forward-goers in here) is probably what he wants.

He ran poorly at Plumpton last time but at least the stable looks to be going through a bit better run of late - Gary Moore had a pretty brutal March and April over jumps, with just six winners from 107) and he is worth a small each way bet at 25s.

They have taken off the tongue tie and cheekpieces that he has worn recently, and maybe that is a sign that they are happier with him at the moment. He didn't wear those in this race last season.

On my initial draft of this column on Thursday afternoon, he was a bet at 25s each way, five places, but the 25s became 20s and then 16s, so I'll pass.

By the way, they have put 40mm on the hurdles track at Haydock this week, so fast-ground horses are bang out of luck.

I could well be back tomorrow morning, given I am looking to get with several horses not put up here.

If not, you'll see me on Tuesday or Wednesday next week as I have a full book of scans - my most extensive yet - at the superb Royal Marsden throughout Monday.

Take health over wealth all day long, but hopefully we make a few quid on Saturday.


UPDATE (as at 7.30am)

Perhaps I should have bitten the bullet with Teddy Blue at 16s in the Swinton Hurdle, and not walked away when he was cut from 25s, as he is only a top-priced 12s now, and 17/29.50 with the Sportsbook.

Well, obviously I should have.

Oh well, his ship has long since sailed on the price-front now, but one of the four owners, Jon Hale, got in touch on X, about my calling his horse an old hound - "Old hound? How dare you, he is only six!" so I hope he cops for them.

Or finishes second to Luttrell Lad, as that one has drifted since the initial column went live. So much so that he briefly hit 33s with the Sportsbook on Friday evening. I hope you saw my tweet, alerting to that fact, in a timely manner as that didn't last long, and the subsequent 22s has become 18s.

But he is available at 14s each way, four places, with the Sportsbook in the "Without Favourite" market and that looks a good bet to me, for the reasons mentioned above. Hopefully, all 17 runners, so the 1,2,3,4 stands up.

As ever, no day-of-race updates will be included in the p and l, as the original copy must stand, for obvious reasons. Common sense.

The ground is still good, good to soft, in places at Haydock after 40mm of watering. Fast-ground horses can feel very hard done by.

With Ascot drying to good, good to firm in places - and it will surely be good to firm by race-time - I fear that my fancy Wobwobwob, will be a non-runner in Ascot's 14:40. That may be a good thing for my betting balance, if so, as the ground is the big worry for him.

Global Heat is now a very backable 22-1+ on the exchange in the 13:50 at Lingfield and I have backed At Vimeiro at 100s each way in the Derby Trial at 15:00. He is that price across the board, including with the Sportsbook now.

Well, you have to dream, don't you?


GOING & WEATHER

Ascot (dry and sunny forecast; 22-23 degrees); Round course: Good, good to firm in places; Straight: Good, good to firm in places

Lingfield: (dry and sunny 22 degrees) - Good all round (surely be nearer good to firm by race-time)

Haydock: Hurdles: Good, good to soft in places (dry, 21 degrees, may well be good by race time)

Watering: They have put 40mm on the hurdles track this week


FIRST TIME HEADGEAR

Gary Moore blinkers 24-176 (2009)

Patrick Neville blinkers 0-24 (2009)

Neil Mulholland hood 3-48 (2013)


PACE MAPS

1.30pm Ascot: Way Of Life, Palace Boy, Great Bedwyn?, Rhythmic Dancer, Graham

1.50pm Lingfield: Kolossal, Base Note, Global Heat

2.05pm Ascot: Vetiver, Flying Finn (other prominent racers in here)

2.25pm Lingfield: Danielle, Rubies Are Red

2.40pm Ascot: Mostabshir, Carrytheone, The Wizard Of Eye, Arabian Storm, Londoner, Zero Carbon

3.00pm Lingfield: Ambiente Friendly, Imperial Sovereign

3.15pm Haydock: Ballee, Afadil, Luttrell Lad?, All The Glory (prominent), Pickanumber

3.35pm Lingfield: Stenton Glider, Born To Rock


BALLOTED OUT (money back for ante-post punters)

3.15pm Haydock: Yalla Habibi, Ossie's Lodge, Lunar Sovereign, Mayhem Mya, Ballygeary, Scots Poet, Golden Maverick


TRAINER FORM - for all with entries in Saturday's ITV races (does not include Friday's results):

Excellent: Jack Channon, Tom Lacey, Adrian Keatley

Good: Andrew Balding, Karl Burke, Richard Hughes (tailing off slightly perhaps), Ed Walker (very good), Amy Murphy, Harry Charlton, David O'Meara (considering he is a numbers trainer), John and Thady Gosden, Fergal O'Brien, Olly Murphy, Jamie Osborne, Crisfords, Neil Mulholland (very good), Grant Tuer, Aidan O'Brien (coming right again)

Fair: Richard Fahey, Ian Williams, Joseph O'Brien, Ed Dunlop, Kevin Ryan, James Owen, Paul Nicholls, Sheena West, O'Neills, Sir Mark Prescott, Richard Hannon, Ian Williams, Denis Coakley, Ralph Beckett (improving), Saeed Bin Suroor (only three runners in 2024, with one odds-on winner), Sean Woods, Luke Dace, Jonathan Portman, James Horton, Stuart Williams, Terry Kent, William Haggas, James Ferguson, Eve Johnson Houghton. Muir/Grassick (borderline moderate). Jim Goldie, David Menuisier, Hugo Palmer (borderline moderate), Roger Varian

Moderate, Roger Teal (possibly more fair), Tony Martin, Michael Bell, Hobbs/White, Victor Dartnall (very few runners), Moores (though a 4-1 winner on Thursday), Patrick Neville (one 3-1 recent winner, though), Suzy Smith (not enough runners in truth), David Simcock, Jane Chapple-Hyam (possibly more fair, with a 9-2 winner on Thursday), James Fanshawe, Michael Bell (though an 8-1 winner on Thursday), Mark Loughnane, Ralph Smith, George Margason (very few runners), Charlie Fellowes, Marco Botti


Now read Ryan Moore on his Saturday rides here.


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2024 Flat season (day-of-race; Apr 26 onwards):

STAKED:  20
RETURN: 30.2
P AND L: +10.2

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STAKED: 127
RETURN: 143.4
P/L:    +16.4

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STAKED:  202
RETURNS: 168.9
P AND L:  -33.1

March 26 2022 -April 15 2023:

Staked: 436
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P/L: +207.6

April 14 2021 to March 25 2022:

P/L: + 183.1

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