Betfred Oaks Big Race Verdict: Back Junior to trump his father on the Downs

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Are we going to be looking at easy conditions?

The wet few days and another sharp shower with 5mm in midweek, and up to 30mm (was reported 33mm in some quarters) from Monday to Thursday has changed the complexion of the two Classics and Friday's Group 1 Epsom Oaks (16:00) means a good test for the nine fillies standing their ground.

Andrew Cooper, clerk of the course, revealed to RTV on Wednesday said the week should get better with shower risks on every day and including Saturday.

Aidan O'Brien's Precise has come out with ground (and stamina) concerns, but it's not as if O'Brien doesn't have any arrows to fire from his Classic quiver with 33% of the field.

Sportsbook prices as of Friday morning

(Please Note: Clicking on a horse name will take you directly to a pre-loaded betslip)

Amelia Earhart was floating around the 15/82.88 and 2/13.00 market as the favourite with Legacy Link proving to be slightly uneasy in the betting from 11/43.75 to 3/14.00 and then to 7/24.50. Perhaps with the amount of rain, although her rider Colin Keane spoken on RTV yesterday and wasn't deterred by potential soft at all.

Thundering On was positive - from 11/26.50 into 9/25.50 and I don't see her going too much shorter for the race, but the biggest mover of all as of Thursday night into Friday early hours was A La Prochaine, and she was cut from 14/115.00 into 15/28.50.

K Sarra was weak from 12/113.00 to 16/117.00, likewise Venetian Lace.

Who will appreciate the rain?

We have to be looking at good to soft at the very least and for those that have past experience (granted a small sample size) in wetter terrain, it is worth highlighting.

Ralph Beckett's A La Prochaine was behind Amelia Earhart at Chester in the Cheshire Oaks on good, but she did win her novice at Newbury last October when officially soft and Timeform actually rated the going "heavy". Alas it was slightly different too at Chester with the Halifax boys citing good to firm on times rather than the official good.

Beckett, a stable yet to really fire this season, has two other chances with K Sarra - who was second in the Musidora but has yet to face anything other than officially 'good'.

His final filly On Message looks far more exposed with five runs, only one of which was on soft and that resulted in a defeat. She has some track experience having landed a 0-80 handicap in April, and while she performed well in the Listed Height Of Fashion, she doesn't have the class nay improvement for a Group 1.

John and young Thady Gosden have Legacy Link, winner of the key trial at York but in all four starts has yet to face going with any soft in the description officially, although Timeform rated the York ground for her trial success as good to soft, so that leaves some hope.

Gosden senior likes to take his Epsom horses for the pre-festival shindig, formerly known as Breakfast With The Stars, now just breakfast as no one ever seems to turn up.

He said: "I was very happy with her," Gosden said. "She went up to the top for the mile and 110 yards start, did a turn there, did a half speed down the hill, got on the correct lead and then into the straight and picked up well. I always pull up early as the ground tends to run away from you.

"She's a Musidora winner and did that well. She showed a good attitude and the extra distance there seemed to suit her. Her mother stayed a mile and a half with us, and she's by Dubawi. They're not known for stamina, but she seemed to kick in strongly in the latter part of the race."

Amerlia Earhart landed her maiden at Leopardstown in yielding and Cameo won her Curragh Maiden last term in soft/heavy.

I think Cameo is a strong stayer potentially and O'Brien said after her Lingfield win: "In fairness to her, when Ryan asked her to knuckle down she went away.

"Wayne (Lordan) rode her the first day at the Curragh and felt going up in trip and better ground would suit. Those were the two factors she got today and in fairness she was very impressive.

"She is a lovely big, strong, imposing filly and she is bang in the Oaks mix now."

Can Joseph spoil father's party?

I must admit Thundering On is still looking my number one pick having played up her chances in this week's antepost column, and I am not put off by the rain one single ounce (or millimetre).

Her first three runs, all defeats, were on soft, soft and heavy and her win in the Salsabil Stakes last time out was officially good to soft.

She looked very good at Navan, a trial race won by 2024 Oaks winner Ezeliya for Dermot Weld en route to Epsom.

It was a visually striking display as the commentator said there was no luck in-running into the two furlongs, but a tiny gap was prised open and she quickened up in the manner of a classy filly. Her final furlong time clocked 12.87 seconds, and was the only filly to break 13 seconds at the end, while her previous furlong at 11.66 was the dazzling one - a great turn of foot was seen and witnessed.

She holds entries in the Pretty Polly and Irish Champion over 1m2f and also the Irish Oaks, a stayer with some acceleration is just what you need for Epsom.

I still make her the bet.

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Oaks runners and sire stats over 1m4f

• Amelia Earhart (sire Camelot 14.6% win and 33.7% placed at 1m4f)
• Legacy Link (sire Dubawi 18.8% win and 38.4% placed at 1m4f)
• Thundering On (sire Frankel 19.2% win and 35.1% placed at 1m4f)
• Cameo (sire Wootton Bassett 12.9% win and 29.4% placed at 1m4f )
• A La Prochaine (sire Lope De Vega 14.6% win and 33.7% placed at 1m4f )
• Venetian Lace (sire Masar 26% win and 38% placed at 1m4f)
• K Sarra (sire New Bay 15% win and 29% placed at 1m4f)
• Sugar Island (sire Dubawi 18.8% win and 38.4% placed at 1m4f)
• On Message (sire Camelot 14.6% win and 33.7% placed at 1m4f)

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Trainer form and records at Epsom

- John and Thady Gosden: 7-26 at 27%, and 11-33 in last five seasons at Epsom at 33% and level stakes profit of +12.24.

- Aidan O'Brien: 7-26 at 27%, 8-40 at 20% in the last five seasons at Epsom and level stakes profit of +4.08.

- Ralph Beckett: 3-28 at 11% last two weeks, 11-79 in the last five seasons at Epsom and level stakes loss -41.73.

- Charlie Johnston: 75 at 13%, 5-71 at 7% at Epsom last five seasons.

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Tactics and pace map

Ballydoyle are peerless in terms of their team tactics, as witnessed in France in the Prix Du Jockey Club. It looks as though Sugar Island, a habitual front-runner, is in her to set the race up as the bunny, but she acts on soft and might be dangerous with a lead.

Johnston's Venetian Lace, who ran fine third in the 1000 Guineas nearside has made the running, but this will be her first try at 1m4f jumping up from 1m.

Legacy Link made the running in a Haydock novice last term, and while keen at York, was prominent and expect exactly the same tactic under Colin Keane.

A La Prochaine was held up a long way off the pace at Chester, I expect Thundering On to race mid-division and On Message also to be held up.

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Alan Dudman's Big Race Verdict

1) Thundering On

2) Cameo

3) A La Prochaine

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