Napoli v Ajax: Back hosts at generous price

Napoli 1.645/8 v Ajax 5.59/2; The Draw 4.77/2
Wednesday 12 October, 17:45
Live on BT Sport 1

Napoli demolished Ajax last week

Ajax will be looking to do much better on Wednesday night, having been thrashed by Napoli last week.

The Serie A leaders beat the Dutch champions 6-1 in the reverse fixture. It was the biggest ever home defeat for Ajax in European competition and all the more impressive for the fact that it was the hosts who actually took the lead, before Napoli demolished them.

Over the weekend Napoli's form continued with a 4-1 win at Cremonese. They are now unbeaten in 12 games across all competitions (W10 D2), winning all of their last eight. Napoli lead Serie A by two points and have a three point lead at the top of Group A, having beaten Liverpool and Rangers, along with Ajax.

What's really impressive, is that these results have come at a period of transition, with many senior players such as Kalidou Koulibaly, Lorenzo Insigne and Dries Mertens having departed over the summer.

The defeat to Napoli marked a four game run for Ajax without a victory (D1 L3). Over the weekend they bounced back with a 4-2 win at Volendam, which leaves Ajax second in the Eredivisie, a point behind the leaders AZ.

Generous price for Napoli under circumstances

Napoli are the 1.645/8 favourites, with the draw at 4.77/2 and Napoli out at 5.59/2.

That's quite a generous price for a team that have just won the reverse fixture by such a wide margin and now have home advantage. It's certainly a good starting point, to add some extra caveats to increase the price of a Napoli win.

You can back Napoli to win and both teams to score at 2.89/5, with eight of Napoli's twelve games this season seeing the opposition scoring. A Napoli win and over 3.5 goals is 3.412/5.