Who Will Win the Champions League?: Five bets for Europe's top competition

Bayern are ready to claim the prize, but it won't be easy

While there are plenty of teams that have won back-to-back European Cups or Champions Leagues, winning that famous trophy in three straight seasons is a rare and impressive feat. Real Madrid won the first five European Cups and were also crowned as champions of Europe in three straight seasons from 2016 to 2018.

The Ajax of Johan Cruyff won the trophy three times in the 1970s, and Bayern Munich immediately followed that achievement with a three-peat of their own. Now PSG are looking to join that VIP club, and they are the 9/25.50 favourites to win the Champions League again this term.

Luis Enrique insists no team is more motivated than his to win the Champions League this time around, and the club has shaken up its forward line. Bradley Barcola, Goncalo Ramos, Kang-In Lee and Randal Kolo Muani moved on, securing a profitable summer in the market despite the arrivals of Mika Godts, Maghnes Akliouche and World Cup winner Ferran Torres.

PSG have kept all of the major stars they wanted to keep, and they feel like legitimate favourites. However, the likes of Vitinha and Joao Neves showed signs of fatigue during the World Cup, and the question is whether Luis Enrique's exacting style of play will eventually take a cumulative toll.

Arsenal are 11/26.50 in the Winner market, and came within a few penalty kicks of winning last season's tournament. Mikel Arteta's men have the confidence of Premier League champions, and they remain the best defensive side in Europe.

However, the Gunners have let a lot of attacking talent go without truly replacing it, and an injury to starting centre-forward Kai Havertz would be a major blow. Gabriel Martinelli scored some really important goals last season, but he's been sold to Al Hilal, while Leandro Trossard, Gabriel Jesus and Ethan Nwaneri have also gone.

Arsenal have one of the best keepers in Europe in David Raya, and the addition of Newcastle skipper Bruno Guimaraes means they have enviable depth in midfield. While Arsenal aren't my tip to win the whole thing, it's perhaps worth noting they are 5/16.00 to win the League Phase, which they did last season.

Barcelona's summer business has left them in a stronger position than before, despite their high-profile failure to sign Atletico Madrid striker Julian Alvarez. Centre-forwards Robert Lewandowski and Ferran Torres have gone, but Gabriel Jesus can be an effective pressing forward if he stays, and both Raphinha and Anthony Gordon are more than capable of playing through the middle.

Former Newcastle speedster Gordon has Marcus Rashford's slot in the Barca squad, and his work-rate without the ball is what gives him the edge over his England colleague.

The most important move Barca have made is the acquisition of Rodri from Manchester City. The midfield general was instrumental in Spain's World Cup win, and given the risk that's baked into Hansi Flick's football, Rodri's ability to fight fires and control a game is crucially important.

Superstar Lamine Yamal has now won a European Championship, a World Cup and two La Liga titles, all at the age of 19. Last term he delivered a dizzying 16 goals and 11 assists in La Liga, while he contributed to ten Champions League goals.

I didn't truly believe that Barca could win the Champions League in the last two seasons, but the arrival of Rodri and the pace and ingenuity they have in attack makes them contenders at this level. The Catalan giants are 11/26.50 to win the tournament.

While I really like the look of Barca, I can only pick one winner in this market, and I'll back Bayern Munich to win the Champions League at 11/26.50. The Bavarians were narrowly defeated by PSG in last season's semi-finals, and I think they've had a strong enough transfer window to regard them as challengers once again.

For a start, Bayern have retained one of the best attacking units on the planet. Harry Kane is set to sign a new contract, having bashed in 73 goals for club and country last term. Michael Olise pipped Kane to the Bundesliga Player of the Season award, delivered a stunning seven assists for France in the World Cup and he has started this campaign in razor-sharp form. Luis Diaz had an amazing first season in Germany, scoring 26 goals as Bayern won a league and cup double.

Ismael Saibari has come in after a good World Cup, and in my eyes he's an upgrade on the departed Nicolas Jackson, able to play multiple positions. Germany left-back Nathaniel Brown has been recruited from Eintracht Frankfurt, and has slotted in seamlessly. He can play in a midfield role, at left-back or at left wing, and don't be surprised if he dovetails with the fit-again Alphonso Davies on Bayern's left flank.

Coach Vincent Kompany has done a wonderful job of knitting the squad together, and they play aggressive, exciting football. I think the Belgian tactician has learned a lot from defeat to PSG, and with the Bundesliga title expected to be within easy reach, Kompany should be able to rest and rotate his squad when the big games arrive from March onwards.

Can Mourinho stay out of the headlines?

Real Madrid have arguably the most talented forward line in Europe. Vinicius Junior signed a contract extension after months and months of speculation, former Leipzig winger Yan Diomande could end up being the club's record signing if all the add-ons come to pass, Jude Bellingham is arguably in the form of his life, and Kylian Mbappe just won the Golden Boot (again) at the World Cup.

However, Madrid haven't won a trophy in the last two seasons, and it remains to be seen whether Jose Mourinho can keep his cool. The veteran coach knows he has a golden opportunity to resurrect his career at the elite level, but he's also aware that neither Xabi Alonso nor Alvaro Arbeloa could get the best out of the squad last term.

With Real Madrid currently priced at 6/17.00 to lift the trophy, this feels like a watching brief to me. The talent level is dizzyingly high, but Madrid don't have an elite midfield controller in the way that some of their rivals do and I remain unconvinced that the Mourinho who lost his way at Fenerbahce and towards the end at Roma won't resurface.

If you want a value play in the Winner market at a much bigger price, Inter Milan are worth consideration at 25/126.00. Christian Chivu won a league and cup double in his first season in charge, and the Italian champions have made some really interesting transfers. Djed Spence is a great replacement for Denzel Dumfries at right-back, John Stones could be an unbelievable grab if he stays fit and Curtis Jones is a tidy midfielder who often enjoys European games.

There's also impressive depth in attack. Lautaro Martinez remains the leader, but he can get a rest every so often, with Marcus Thuram, Ange-Yoan Bonny and Pio Esposito also forward options. My only concern is whether Josep Martinez is good enough to step up and be the first-choice keeper.

Inter were stung by their exit to Bodo/Glimt in the playoffs last term, but I expect them to go deeper this time around.

Mbappe the obvious choice, but don't ignore Barca star

When I wrote betting.betfair.com's Golden Boot preview ahead of the World Cup, I went for Kylian Mbappe as the obvious option and threw in some wilder plays. Lo and behold, Mbappe came through at 11/26.50 and covered the other bets to give me a profit.

I'm adopting the same strategy here. Mbappe was the Champions League's top scorer last season with 15 goals, and two seasons before that he was joint-top goal-getter with Harry Kane. He has twice been Golden Boot winner at the World Cup and has been La Liga's top scorer in each of the last two campaigns. I'll happily back him to be top scorer at 15/82.88.

My value selection in the Top Goalscorer market is Raphinha at 17/118.00. Yes, the Brazilian is usually a winger, and yes, last term was disrupted by several injuries. However, the former Leeds star was the joint-top scorer in the Champions League two seasons ago, and he'll be playing through the middle in some of the games. Raphinha is a huge favourite of coach Hansi Flick, so if he's fit, he'll play more often than not.

Barca did get a pretty tough schedule, but they are such an attack-minded side that I don't anticipate a big drop-off in their goal output. Raphinha has looked so sharp in the opening weekends of the Spanish season, and I think he's a big price here.

Liverpool part of Top Eight treble

Although I have doubts about Liverpool's ability to win the big prizes in their first season under Andoni Iraola, a kind schedule leads me to believe that the Reds can directly qualify for the last 16, just as they have in the last two seasons.

They are at home to Atletico Madrid and away to Inter, games they won in the league phase last term. Their other Anfield matches are against Villarreal, Porto and Lens, games that would have been far trickier if they were on the road. Generally, a tally of 16 points is enough to make the top eight, and I think Liverpool can get those points on the board.

Arsenal won the league phase last term, and I'd expect them to at least win home games against Lille, Borussia Dortmund and Azerbaijani champions Sabah. They also go to Slavia Prague, a ground they won comfortably at last season.

I'll back Bayern to make the top eight too. The Germans' Champions League home record is exceptional (they won six out of seven at home last term, and five of seven the season before) and they are capable of picking up at least a point in their away games at Viking, Lille, Atletico Madrid and Manchester United.

Backing Liverpool, Arsenal and Bayern to all finish in the top eight is a treble that paid out last season, and this term it potentially pays out at 12/53.40.

Yaya Toure has made history, but tough times await

Former Manchester City and Barcelona star Yaya Toure only got the Slovan Bratislava job in the summer, replacing Vladimir Weiss, who took the Slovakian national team job. Toure has since become the first African coach to lead a team into the group stage or the league phase of the Champions League.

Although Slovan knocked out the Swedish champions Mjallby and persistent Slovenian table-toppers Celje in qualifying, they will find this a big step up. A couple of seasons ago Slovan lost all eight of their league-phase games, conceding 27 goals and scoring just seven.

Slovan's schedule is really difficult, with home games against Stuttgart, Betis, Shakhtar and Inter and trips to face PSG, Roma, LASK and Porto. On that basis, the 4/15.00 on offer for them to finish bottom of the league phase seems attractive.

Two seasons ago Slovan were bottom of the table with no points, while last season Kairat claimed a solitary point on their way to posting a 36th-placed finish. I can't see Slovan winning any of their games.

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