Lewis Jones' Betting Notebook: Back Champions League goals - starting with BTTS in Man Utd v Sabah

League format creates interesting betting dynamic

The Champions League has changed and, as bettors, we should alter the way we approach it.

The league phase, which was introduced two years ago, was sold as a format where every game matters. But the reality is a little more complicated. There is a sizeable safety net: finish ninth to 24th and you are still alive, so even if you don't make the top eight there's a two-legged play-off for a place in the last 16 still waiting for you. PSG, the back-to-back winners of this competition, have taken that route in both seasons.

The bottom 12 are the only teams with nothing to fall back on.

That creates an interesting betting dynamic for punters when plotting strategies for games in the league format.

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Champions League Betting - Follow goals, avoid draws

Across the opening two league phases, there have been 288 matches and 957 goals - an average of 3.32 per game. UEFA's figures put the respective seasonal averages at 3.26 in 2024/25 and 3.38 in 2025/26. If backing goals is your thing, this competition is a playground for profit.

Over 2.5 goals, both teams to score, team goals and Asian handicap markets should be to the forefront of punters minds when attacking Champions League games this autumn.

But perhaps the more striking statistic is the lack of stalemates.

Only 43 of those 288 games have finished level - around 15 per cent. If you are betting on goals, you are effectively trying to remove one of the biggest obstacles to a big scoreline: the draw.

The two most obvious draw scores are 1-1 and 0-0. A high-scoring environment naturally removes those two correct scores which are usually priced up as one of the favoured results in a football market.

That is hugely important when constructing a betting strategy because it tells us something about the character of this competition. It's goal heavy.

And that makes sense.

There is less incentive for a team sitting comfortably in the qualification places to spend 90 minutes protecting a point. There is also less reason for a side outside the top eight to accept a draw if a win could dramatically improve its position.

The table is fluid, goal difference matters and the sheer number of teams means there can be considerable movement from one matchday to the next.

It can create a slightly strange, almost exhibition-like feel at times: the best attacks come out on top and the handbrake comes off in a bid to pick up points.

So, more goals. Fewer draws. More decisive results. And a safety net that can make the league-phase fixtures feel less like European chess and more like a game of attack versus attack.

Bet for Matchday 1: Man Utd v Sabah - hosts' leaky defence opens up BTTS opportunity

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The value at this stage of the competition can be found by understanding the supposedly weaker clubs before the market catches up.

FC Sabah will draw a few confused looks from most United fans ahead of this opener. Who? What? Where? Why?

Sabah are Champions League debutants and were only founded in 2017. But treating them as some plucky Azerbaijani outfit who have stumbled into the big time misses what has been happening in that country's football for a while now.

Azerbaijan teams over the last decade have become far more competitive in Europe, largely thanks to Qarabağ, who reached the knockout playoffs in the Champions League after winning three games in the league phase.

So, when assessing those formlines here, note that Qarabag finished second in their domestic league, nine points behind Sabah, who are being vastly underrated by the market due to their inexperience at this level.

The Azerbaijanis scored 18 goals in eight Champions League qualifying matches, averaging 2.25 per game. They also had to come through four qualifying rounds - beating the champions of Wales, Finland, Denmark and Israel - to reach the league phase.

Manchester United should win comfortably. They are 1/91.11 in the match odds market for a reason, with Sabah 22/123.00 and the Draw 8/19.00. But winning comfortably and keeping a clean sheet are two completely different bets.

United have conceded six goals in their opening three Premier League matches, including twice against Everton on Sunday.

There is a recurring problem for United. They haven't demonstrated that they can control games defensively.

The market sees United playing an inexperienced Champions League debutant. I see a United side with defensive issues against an Azerbaijani champion that has already scored 18 times in European qualifying and finished nine points ahead of the Qarabag side that reached the Champions League knockout play-offs.

The 1/12.00 on Both Teams To Score is the best bet of the midweek card.

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