PSG v Arsenal: Back holders to win and Georgian to score in 9/1 bet builder

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Saturday 30 May, 17:00
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PSG have timed push to perfection again

The American author Jim George wrote that it's not how you start that's important, it's how you finish. That's a lesson that PSG and their inspirational coach Luis Enrique have clearly learned.

Last term, PSG failed to make the top eight of the Champions League, and they only secured their knockout-phase spot on the final matchday. They then stormed through the second half of the competition, bashing Inter 5-0 in the final to secure the big trophy for the first time in their history.

This season a turbo-charged final performance is on the cards again. PSG once again needed to contest the playoff round, but they torched Monaco, Chelsea, and Liverpool, before edging out Bayern in a semi-final for the ages. The first leg, a 5-4 win for PSG in Paris, might be the most aesthetically pleasing game of all time.

It's pretty much the same outfit that won the trophy a year ago. The biggest change is in goal, with Matvey Safonov replacing the departed Gigio Donnarumma in the long term, after the initial appointee Lucas Chevalier lost form and then fitness.

The big injury doubts ahead of the final are Ousmane Dembele and Achraf Hakimi, but both are back in training after injury, and both are at the time of writing in contention to start.

Gunners found gold at the end of the rainbow

Patience is a commodity that's in short supply in football, although given the glittering reigns of Jürgen Klopp at Liverpool and Pep Guardiola at Manchester City, it's perhaps surprising that more clubs don't have the courage of their convictions. We can now add Arsenal to that list of clubs who stuck it out and were rewarded.

Mikel Arteta has been in charge of Arsenal since December 2019. He finished eighth, eighth and fifth in his first three campaigns, and in September 2021 the Gunners were actually bottom of the Premier League after making their worst start to a league season for 67 years.

Although progress followed, a hat-trick of second-placed finishes in the Premier League raised doubts that Arsenal had what it took to finally deliver the big prizes. Even Arteta himself admits he entertained doubts, countenancing the idea that a different coach needed to come in and complete the job.

Arteta and Arsenal held firm, and the payoff has been huge. They have delivered a first Premier League title for 22 years, and now they are seeking their first ever Champions League crown.

As former Arsenal keeper Jens Lehmann - a member of the Invincibles team and a beaten UCL finalist with Arsenal in 2006 - put it to current Gunners keeper David Raya recently: "Our team missed it, so it would mean something to us if this current team could win it and give something back to the fans."

Arsenal finished top of the Champions League's league phase, and although none of their knockout-phase successes against Bayer Leverkusen, Sporting and Atletico Madrid were particularly comfortable, they consistently found a way to keep their opponents at arm's length.

Such defensive prowess is no surprise - Arsenal had the best defensive record in the Premier League, both in terms of actual goals and Expected Goals, and there's an strong argument to say they are the best out-of-possession outfit in world football.

Arsenal's biggest injury-related conundrum is what to do in the right-back position. Ben White is definitely out with a knee injury, while Jurrien Timber hasn't played since March, and may not be fit enough for a start. Centre-back Cristhian Mosquera could fill in.

PSG to secure hard-fought victory

I have huge respect for the job Arsenal and Mikel Arteta have done and the psychological progress they have made, but this PSG team has the comfort of knowing they can deal with the mental strain of this final.

The cloying, claustrophobic pressure that came from the French club's previous failure to win the Champions League is a thing of the past, and Luis Enrique has turned this group into a true collective.

Paris beat Arsenal home and away in the semis just over a year ago, and while the Gunners have improved since then, I'm still giving PSG the edge.

On that basis, I'll snap up the generous 3.412/5 on offer for PSG to win the final and Under 3.5 Goals.

Arsenal aren't going to open up and go toe-to-toe with PSG here, and they are the best defensive team around, so it'll be close. It's worth noting that six of the last seven UCL finals have actually featured only one or two goals.

Kvaradona key to 9/110.00 Bet Builder

Georgian sensation Kvicha Kvaratskhelia has had another outstanding campaign, and has netted in every knockout round so far.

I'll back him to score again here to start a 9/110.00 Bet Builder. I'll also back him to be fouled twice. Arsenal will either have Mosquera out of position at right-back or a less than fully fit Timber, so Kvaratskhelia should see plenty of the ball as PSG look to probe that area. The former Napoli star was fouled four times in each leg against Liverpool, and twice in the second leg of the semi against Bayern.

Arsenal are certainly going to be a threat from set plays, so I'll back chief disruptor Gabriel to have a shot. The big Brazilian has at least one goal attempt in nine of his last 14 starts.

Finally, keep an eye on team news, but if he starts back young Arsenal midfielder Myles Lewis-Skelly to be fouled twice. The teenager is adept at shielding the ball, and has been fouled at least twice in six of his last 12 starts.

If Lewis-Skelly doesn't start, it's still a 9/25.50 treble.

Now read our other Champions League previews here!