Liverpool v Atletico Madrid: Back goals and a 13/1 bet builder in Anfield encounter

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Liverpool v Atletico Madrid Match Odds - Who to back?

Liverpool are 7/101.70 favourites with the Betfair Sportsbook to win on Wednesday as they welcome Atletico Madrid to Anfield. 

It's a price almost big enough to tempt me, but not quite because this will be Andoni Iraola's first Champions League game as a manager.

He is without doubt a top-notch coach but how quickly he'll take among Europe's elite remains to be seen, especially against wiley, streetwise supremo's like Diego Simeone.

Opponents Atleti have made a patchy start in La Liga, winning two, drawing one and losing 3-0 at Athletic Club on Saturday.

Data wise, the Spanish side are outperforming their expected-goals (xG), expected-goals-against (xG) and expected-points tallies. 

The season is only four games old but it's a stat worth flagging, so too is the fact Liverpool have won their last three meetings between these clubs by an aggregate scoreline of 8-4.

Simeone last beat Liverpool in the round of 16 back in 2020 by an aggregate scoreline of 4-2. Atleti were 1-0 up after the first leg, then won it in the most dramatic fashion with Alvaro Morata scoring in the 121st minute of extra time to nick it in the second leg.

Atleti were 11/26.50 to win that evening (albeit in 90minutes) and were the same price in their most recent visit to Anfield, so at 15/44.75 it's hard to make a case for them on Wednesday.

Liverpool v Atletico Madrid Bet 1 - Go for goals

This match-up always tends to deliver on entertainment with three of the last four fixtures ending 3-2 and 18 cards flashed over that sample.

Atleti haven't kept a clean sheet since the opening day of the season. Last campaign in this competition, they conceded 17 goals in eight away trips with their only clean sheet coming at Barcelona in the quarters. 

In the league phase, Simione's side conceded four at the Emirates, three at Anfield, two at PSV and once at Galatasaray. 

Hosts Liverpool have been obliging on the goals-front too this season. 

The Reds conceded twice at St James' Park, two against Nottingham Forest and were fortunate to keep a clean sheet at Ipswich, conceding 0.75 xGA. 

Iraola's style is difficult to pick up and although Liverpool are adapting quickly, teething issues can be expected. 

At even money with the Betfair Exchange, backing Over 3.0 goals appeals. It is money back if there's exactly three goals, a full payout if there's four or more and a loser if there are two or less. 

Liverpool v Atletico Madrid Bet 2- Who's going to have a hand in the goals? 

With goals expected, it makes sense to dip into the to score or assist market. 

Liverpool could line-up with an attack-minded right back Jeremie Frimpong and defensively, he leaves a lot to be desired.

It could open the door for Atleti left back Alejandro Grimaldo. The Spaniard netted four goals in this competition last season, setting up another three which is a goals per 90 of 0.33 and a G+A per 90 of 0.58. Across his last four seasons, he has had a hand in 22 goals in total in Europe. 

Grimaldo's been plying his trade in the Bundesliga for the last three seasons, netting 20 goals and setting up another 27 domestically. 

So at 3/14.00, his price to score or assist appeals at Anfield. He's yet to break his duck for Atleti but could be involved if his side score on Wednesday.

The Sportsbook also has him priced at 17/29.50 to score anytime and 150/1151.00 to score 2+ goals, which is tempting. 

Jimmy's Bet Builder- Back this 13/1 treble

Combining over 3.5 goals and Grimaldo to score or assist provides the foundation of the bet builder. 

Adding Marcos Llorente to have 1+ shots at 11/82.38 takes the price to a touch over 13/114.00. 

Llorente had two shots in his last appearances, averaging 0.79 per 90 across his last 20 appearances, hitting this line in half of those games over that sample. 

In the Champions League, he's had at least one shot in his last three and hit this line in seven of his last eight appearances. 

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