Hawk Eye on New Zealand v India Third ODI: Taylor's turn to land

Ed Hawkins
27 January 2019

Taylor has a fine record in the last 12 months

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Ed Hawkins has been landing winner after winner on the side markets in this series. What does he fancy for game three early on Tuesday?...

"Those who follow Taylor's game will know that he is a completely different player following surgery to remove a growth on his eye"

Nothing wrong with a threepeat

We've successfully delved into the matrix for the first two matches, nailing a big winner at 7/2 on Kuldeep Yadav to be top India bowler in game two and double most sixes bets on New Zealand.

Kuldeep remains the value at 3s with Betfair Sportsbook for three wins in a row. As we said before the second match we rated him more like 9/5. He now has nine wins in his last 23 matches.

Mohammad Shami still rates as joint favourite. This despite him notching zero wins in the same period.

We have also said India are the wrong favourite on the sixes market. No side has hit more sixes than New Zealand on their own soil recently and they have a significantly bigger average per game.

Even in defeat the Kiwis are still winning the race. They outmuscled India in Napier and the Bay Oval.

The rationale behind the 'wrong favourite' makes sense. Sort of. There is a belief that the best team at winning matches - clearly India - also equates to having the biggest hitters. Not so. One-day internationals are a more subtle art.

Finally, Matt Henry is 9/2 for top New Zealand bowler. As we said in the match preview it's a must bet because there's no risk if he doesn't play. Statistically, he's an extraordinary 13/8.

Guptill's struggles

Martin Guptill has had a dodgy start to the series, looking all at sea against the pace and movement from Shami and Bhuv Kumar. He has scores of five and 15.

It's tricky for Guptill. With the ball bending he can't really play his shots with the same confidence. He likes to hit through the line with abandon to get off his team to the fast start that he is charged with.

Another struggle could be on the cards. Sportsbook go ⅚ over/under 34.5. In the contest of the series so far, it looks a short.

On his career he's only busted that mark 39% of the time. In the last two years it's less at 37%.

Taylor made

Does Guptill's poor sequence open up value on the top Kiwi bat market, then? Possibly.

Kane Williamson is the favourite at 5/2 and on career numbers that's a couple of ticks in our favours. So nothing wrong betting him.

It all depends, though, on how much faith you put in recent form. And that's a conundrum we often wrestle with. It can throw up completely different results.

For example, the clear jolly should be Ross Taylor if we're talking only about the last 12 months. He has six honours in the last 12 matches, including one at this venue.

On career form, Taylor is more like a 9/2 chance, though, than the 4s on offer from Betfair Sportsbook.

Those who follow Taylor's game will know that he is a completely different player following surgery to remove a growth on his eye. For a chunk of his career he actually couldn't see the ball that well.

Williamson has copped twice in 12 months and Mitchell Santner, including against England on this ground, twice. Santner's price of 25s is worth a nibble on those grounds.