New Zealand v Pakistan First T20 Tips: Do Pakistan have six appeal?

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New Zealand v Pakistan
Sunday 16 March, 01:15
TV: live on Sky Sports

New Zealand v Pakistan First T20 team news

New Zealand are below strength with Devon Conway, Glenn Phillips, Mitchell Santner, and Rachin Ravindra prepping for IPL. Matt Henry is injured and Kane Williamson unavailable.

Michael Bracewell, who was brilliant in the Champions Trophy, captains a side which will rely on fast starts from Finn Allen. All-rounder Mark Chapman has been unfortunate not to break in as a regular in ODI and could bat at No 3. The experienced Daryl Mitchell and Jimmy Neesham will provide glue and fireworks respectively. The pace stocks are strong with Kyle Jamieson, Jacob Duffy, Ben Sears and Will O'Rourke in the squad.

Possible NZ XI: Allen, Seifert, Chapman, Mitchell, Hay, Bracewell, Neesham, Jamieson, Sodhi, Duffy, Sears

Pakistan are either resting the likes of Babar Azam and Mohammad Rizwan or they are making a definitive statement to move on. Usman Khan, a subscriber to chaos theory, could be the chief beneficiary and he could either open or bat at first down.

Omair Yousuf's strike rate of 147 domestically bodes well and it's possible he is paaired with either Usman or Hasan Nawaz in the opening slot. Nawaz is a little slower with a rate of 131. Muhammad Haris, a 23-year-old keeper, takes the gloves from Rizwan. Late-order hitter Abdul Samad would be a positive pick but there may not be room.

Shadab Khan will be a welcome sight for those hoping for balance from this team. Salman Agha leads and there is familarity with pacers Shaheen Afridi and Haris Rauf.

Possible Pakistan XI: Nawaz, Yousuf, Usman, Haris, Salman, Shadab, Khusdhil, Rauf, Afridi, Ali, Muqeem

New Zealand v Pakistan First T20 pitch report

Six from the last 10 and 16 from 20 day matches at Hagley Oval have been won by the chaser. It is not a ground where we expect big runs. On that most recent filter, the average run rate in the first dig has been 8.08. More than 165.5 has been busted five times so it may be that par line  middle settles around that mark.

The two teams met at this venue in this format in January 2024 with Pakistan defending 134. Spin was their undoing, though instead of seam and swing. The overhead conditions are a mixture of sun and cloud. In-play we're not convinced Pakistan will keep things tight at the death with the Kiwis loaded up at the back end. We could well see 14 or 15 an over for each of the last four.

New Zealand v Pakistan First T20 match predicition

Pakistan are getting towards friendless territory at 2.506/4 and rising. We expect them to go off pretty close to thet 3.002/1 mark. It is not hard to understand why.

Their cricket is in the doldrums, not helped by the humiliating Champions Trophy hosting experience when they were disrespected off the field and embarrassed on it. Even in white ball, there is a justified fear that an inexperienced top order in more bowler-friendly conditions could struggle.

If Pakistan are to cause an upset it could be in the sixes market. They are 7/52.40 with Sportbook to hit more than their opponents. If we're right about the possible top seven of each side, on career data Pakistan outmuscle their New Zealand counterparts by 6.1 sixes per game on average to 5.9. 

The caveat, of course,is the conditions. Some of these Pakistan hitters are used to absolute roads. Still, the 5/61.84 Kiwis is too short. This may be a market we return to on a flatter surface.

New Zealand v Pakistan First T20 player bets

Chapman has eight wins on top bat for New Zealand in the last two years. That's a win rate of 22%. Sportsbook offer 9/25.50, implied probability of 18.2%. Given that six of those triumphs came against Pakistan, it is far to say that he is value, particularly as he is likely to reprise his No 3 role. Rauf is always an option for top Pakistan bowler at an underrated 10/34.33 but he is often one to watch for game one at a staart of a series. We'll know after the run whether he's on the money. 

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