Punjab Kings v Mumbai Indians IPL Tips: Bumrah to make the difference in must-win affair

• Both sides need six wins from eight to qualify

• Punjab badly weakened with Dhawan

• Bairstow still in horrible form

• Back Bumrah top Mumbai bowler

Punjab Kings v Mumbai Indians
Thursday 16 April, 15:00
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Punjab Kings v Mumbai Indians team news

Shikhar Dhawan will reportedly miss out again due to his shoulder injury, which is terrible news for a struggling Punjab top order. Jonny Bairstow remains in poor form and Dhawan's replacement, Atharva Taide, has limited pedigree at this level. One alternative is Rilee Roussow but the South African hasn't been at his best either in recent franchise tournaments.

Probable XI: Bairstow, Taide, Simran Singh, Curran, Livingstone, Shashank Singh, Jitesh Sharma, Ashutosh Sharma (sub), Brar, Rabada, Patel, Arshdeep Singh (sub)

Expect Mumbai to stick with the side which lost to Chennai, but had previously impressed in two victories. One ongoing question is where Nuwan Thushara will get a game and at whose expense. The Sri Lankan bowler has a fine record in T20 and could plausibly replace any of the four overseas stars listed.

Probable XI: Rohit Sharma, Kishan, Yadav (sub), Varma, Pandya, David, Shepherd, Nabi, Gopal, Coetzee, Bumrah, Madhwal (sub).

Punjab Kings v Mumbai Indians pitch report

Punjab's new home ground has failed to reproduce the run-fests we were used to previously at Mohali, or are becoming accustomed to pretty much everywhere else. The highest first innings score in three matches so far was 182 and that proved enough to win. Saturday's game saw 147 chased down, but only just.

Unless today's is a new pitch (listen carefully to the pitch report after the toss), this may well be a day to be backing unders, and to trust spinners to deliver on a worn surface. Given the general scoring trends, I expect the par 1st Innings Runs line will still be around 175. In which case 160 could be available to lay around 1.42/5 either before or early in the first innings. Only do this, however, if Punjab bat first.

Punjab Kings v Mumbai Indians match odds

These match odds are about as one-sided as it gets in IPL, with Mumbai opening at 1.574/7. That is controversial, considering both sides are on four points from six games.

Indeed, this really is a must-win affair for both. Based on past IPLs, both need six wins from eight to qualify for the play-offs, and seven from eight for a top-two finish. Mumbai's outright odds of 9.28/1 look particularly skinny given that context.

Nevertheless, it is hard to make a case for Punjab without their talisman, Dhawan. Their last effort was very poor and their top order looks markedly inferior compared to Mumbai. The visitors will have been very disappointed to fail in their chase against Chennai, and cannot be considered value in any sense of the word, but are fancied to get the job done and keep their fading title hopes alive.

Punjab Kings v Mumbai Indians strategy

For the above reasons, an outright trade doesn't appeal. Where I think there could be an angle is at the end of each innings. Mumbai are bound to keep at least a couple of Jasprit Bumrah overs up their sleeves for the final six. He will be very hard to get away and batters probably won't take too many risks.

In contrast, Mumbai's finishers can be very explosive. They hit a remarkable 96 off the last five in one match versus Delhi. Punjab are using Harshal Patel during the death overs but he seems nowhere near as effective as his best years at RCB, and has been expensive at 10.54 per over.

Therefore, my advice is to get with Mumbai in whatever markets are live and relevant during the death overs. If they're batting first, back overs. If bowling first, lay overs. If the match odds are competitive at the latter stage of either innings, get with Mumbai.

Punjab Kings v Mumbai Indians player bets

Bairstow has passed today's 23.5 run line only once in six innings this season, and hasn't bettered 15 on this ground. This is a standout 'unders' bet at 5/61.84.

At 3/14.00, Jasprit Bumrah is also a must-bet for Top Mumbai Wicket Taker. Under Betfair's rules, if this market is tied (as is very often the case), the winner is the bowler with the best economy. Bumrah is miles ahead on this count, going at 6.08 compared to 7.16 for Mohammad Nabi, 8.2 for Shreyas Gopal and their next most economical bowler is going for 10.2.

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